AFL 2022 Radar: 'Ultimately, bottom six looks more likely than not for the Crows'

Adelaide caused one of the upsets of the season in Round 1 last year, taking down a 2020 grand finalist in Geelong, followed by putting together an impressive first month that saw them record three wins from their first four matches.

They only had four more wins for the year, scattered throughout the season, highlighted by picking off eventual premier Melbourne in the middle stages of the season.

Seven wins more than doubled their 2020 tally, they increased their percentage from 64 to 82, and they climbed four spots on the ladder. Most wooden spooners would take that the following season, so the question now is where to from here?

They’ve lost a wealth of experience, with veterans Daniel Talia, David Mackay and Tom Lynch no longer part of the furniture, along with Jake Kelly departing for Windy Hill. They are a younger list this time around, and we know the inconsistencies that will come with it as they get more games into their youth.

What’s new
Jordan Dawson should make an immediate impact after being traded in from the Swans in exchange for a first round pick tied to Melbourne in this year’s draft.

Dawson is coming off his best season, finishing third in the Sydney best and fairest in a team that won 15 games and missed out on the top four by percentage only. He got better as the season went on too, moving from halfback to the wing, driving the ball forward with his beautiful left leg and hitting the scoreboard regularly.

In fact, Dawson can count himself as one of the best and most penetrating kicks in the league, if not the best and most penetrating. Still only 24, he is entering his prime as a footballer and the Adelaide forwards are going to enjoy his silver service.

Star on the rise
Speaking of Adelaide forwards, Riley Thilthorpe was one of the eye-catching youngsters across the league last year. The 2020 draft class already looks a hot one, and the No.2 pick from that year has already proven he deserved to be taken in the upper echelon of it.

Riley Thilthorpe (Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

His five goals on debut against Hawthorn, coupled with three contested marks, were the first marker. The second was his match-winning performance against St Kilda in game eight. In a torrid low-scoring affair, he led the Crows back from 36 points down with three second-half goals including the final two of the match, one of which was a miraculous over-the-head effort with seconds on the clock.

Thilthorpe already stands 200cm and weighs 100kgs, doesn’t turn 20 until July, and stamped his authority on the competition in his first ten games. If he can avoid the second-year blues, we are all in for a treat.

Who’s under the pump
Taylor Walker had a sensational 2021 after looking dead and gone and buried in 2020. He finished top five in the Adelaide best and fairest and the Coleman medal despite missing five games, and was unlucky to miss the All Australian squad.

His season ended on a sour note when he was engulfed in a racism scandal, when a Crows trainer didn’t turn the other cheek at a comment at a reserves game. He has served three matches of his six-match ban, so will be starting the AFL season in Round 4. He’ll turn 32 a couple of weeks after that, and the mental and physical challenges are all before him.

Father Time already looked like it had caught up with Walker, but he defied all odds. He’s going to have to do it again.

Best-case scenario
Adelaide continues on from their upward trajectory of last year, progressing in linear fashion, and ending up on 9-11 wins, with a percentage in the high 80s or low 90s.

Ideally, the young bookends in Thilthorpe and Jordon Butts continue to impress playing on the best key position players in the game, learning their craft and turning heads along the way.

Matt Crouch being injected back into the fray after missing all of 2020 will stiffen the midfield, and if he can feed the ball out to the likes of Dawson and Paul Seedsman to penetrate inside 50 then they can kick some winning scores.

It would be great to see Wayne Milera stay injury free to provide that drive off halfback. He’s a player that has great vision and creates time when the ball is in his hands, but hasn’t played since Round 2, 2020.

What’s not in doubt is the respect Matthew Nicks has already earned as a coach, and the players’ ability to play for him. That holds them in good stead for whatever comes this season. Ideally, they show enough for us to think they could be finalists in 2023.

(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Worst-case scenario
The most likely scenario is the Crows stagnate or go backwards a little, but we’d hate to see the wheels fall off and for them to lose last year’s gains.

They still lack depth in the midfield, although they don’t want for class with Rory Laird, Seedsman and Dawson. Crouch and Rory Sloane are workhorses, but not game-breakers, and it’s easy to see the good teams getting on top and dominating them.

Adelaide’s early draw could turn nasty pretty quickly given many will be tipping Freo to make the eight and Richmond to rebound to somewhere near their best. Add in two top four teams in Port and the Bulldogs, plus an improving Essendon in the first six rounds, and wins may be scarce. It becomes a long season with confidence rattled.

Ultimately, bottom six looks more likely than not.

Best 22

B: Luke Brown Jordan Butts Andrew McPherson
HB: Brodie Smith Tom Doedee Wayne Milera
C: Paul Seedsman Rory Sloane Jordan Dawson
HF: Josh Rachele Taylor Walker Lachlan Scholl
F: James Rowe Riley Thilthorpe Ned McHenry
Foll: Reilly O’Brien Matt Crouch Rory Laird
Int: Ben Keays Harry Schoenberg Chayce Jones Darcy Fogarty