As we near the 2022 AFL season, just how hard is it for a team to improve dramatically and become a premiership contender?
I focus on Essendon, the team I have barracked for since I was a kid, to make my case.
While Essendon finished eighth in 2021 after winning 11 of 22 games, before a drubbing and elimination by the Western Bulldogs in the first week of the finals, since 2000 the Bombers have not improved their ladder position the following season after making the finals in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2019.
That’s not to say it doesn’t happen.
Dramatic improvement includes Richmond and Geelong winning the flags in 2017 and 2007 after finishing 13th and 10th the previous season, and Collingwood and Port Adelaide making the grand final in 2018 and 2007 after finishing 13th and 12th the previous seasons.
Melbourne and West Coast also won flags in 2021 and 2018 after finishing ninth and eighth the previous seasons.
But for the Dons to succeed in 2022, a number of factors have to fall into place.
First, do Essendon have the necessary talent?
In 2021, the Bombers were among the bottom three by game average for contested possessions, despite being ranked fourth best for restricting the opposing team’s clearance numbers, fifth for disposals per game, sixth for in inside 50s, and one of the best clubs for disposal efficiency at 75 per cent.
Yet they may not be far away from having the necessary talent, grunt and depth.
In the midfield are two 2021 All Australian players, with Darcy Parish top ten for total contested possessions and fourth in clearances, while Zach Merrett was ranked fourth in terms of effective disposals and sixth in total disposals.
Darcy Parish (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
The club’s midfield depth is backed by Andrew McGrath, who missed a number of games through injury, as did Dylan Shiel and Jye Caldwell, Jake Stringer, Kyle Langford and the draftee Ben Hobbs.
In the ruck is the physical Sam Draper, who also missed much of 2021.
Up forward is enough ability to capitalise should the midfield become more dominant, given the Bombers were fifth for kicking goals in 2021.
Should the midfield depth materialise, Stringer may use his brilliance more often in the forward line, having kicked 41 goals in 2021 playing both in the middle and up forward.
Peter Wright (203cm), who kicked 13 goals in the last five games, may also improve in 2022 through added confidence.
The 21-year-old Harrison Jones could be a potential star with his height, courage and ability.
Other players with height who could be useful up forward include Nik Cox, Kaine Baldwin, Aaron Francis and Karl Langford.
Besides Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who kicked 34 goals in 2021, Essendon’s small forwards include Will Snelling and Archie Perkins.
With regard to defence, which did improve in 2021 yet probably remains the club’s most glaring weakness, there is the possibility of the former All Australian Michael Hurley returning in 2022.
Yet, Jayden Laverde played all 23 games last season, recording career-high averages in marks and disposals per game, and ranking in the top 50 for intercepts.
Jordan Ridley is also improving and ranked in the top 30 for intercepts among all players, top ten for rebounds per game, and top 50 for effective disposals per game.
James Stewart and Francis can also play as key lockdown defenders.
Essendon already move the ball quickly from defence through players such as skipper Dyson Heppell, the speedy Nick Hind, and Mason Redman, while the recruitment of Jake Kelly may prove beneficial as a lockdown small/medium defender.
Yet, any successful team must also have luck with injuries and other issues that may impact a player’s availability.
Already, Essendon’s best small forward, McDonald-Tipungwuti, has been granted leave as he deals with an ongoing calf issue and personal issues that saw him miss the tail-end of 2021.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
A team also needs a good preseason to make important improvements in speed, strength and fitness, as the modern AFL footballer must engage in frequent, high-intensity sprint efforts for longer periods of time with players covering 11 to 17km per match.
As the Bombers have many talented young players with lighter builds, a good summer of weight training can build enough muscle to make an important difference when competing against leading, bigger-body opponents.
We shall see how such players shape up in football terms this year.
Finally, a successful club needs great leadership and club harmony.
Despite the calm mannerisms of coach Ben Rutten thus far on the television screen, coaching cannot be easy.
One would like to think the days are gone when Des Tuddenham demanded players crawl on hands and knees around the training oval twice after an after an 80-point loss to Carlton.
The AFL is a wonderful sporting competition, but success in an ultra-competitive professional league is difficult.
While I hope Essendon can improve considerably in 2022 season after its 8th place in 2021, only
time will tell whether the Dons prove to be a premiership contender.
But, as a fan, I wish the Bombers good fortune in 2022.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
yes, sounds about right, but we Don supporters (like any other) start the year with hope. I do feel (hope) Wright can be good this year.
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
Why am I not surprised?
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
Essendon still a season short of being serious challengers. Could cause some upsets but still lack about 2 key players - a rugged reliable tall backman and a tallish goal-kicking forward. Maybe 2023!
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
You will find that all of the other finals teams had much more success than the Bombers.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Cox will play wing and is great player, can't see him in the middle. Stringer will have to play forward because Tippa is gone, the other players may come on, or they may not, it's only Perkins second year isn't it? Just my opinion
Teeko
Roar Rookie
Stringer will still play an important role in the midfield. You can't just write him off by saying 'he will be needed forward'. He played forward plenty last season yet he was 5th in the league for centre clearances per game and 20th for inside 50's. It shows he is a really important cog to our midfield despite only playing there part time. Some of the teams you listed here have better top end talent, but definitely not depth. The reason we can play Heppell back is because of our depth of midfielders. He has proven to be a good quality midfield when he plays there. Shiel and Mcgrath haven't played their best footy since they have both had serious injuries the past two seasons. I disagree that 'Mcgrath may come good' I think he has already shown a lot and it's not like he's out best mid, he is like our 4th. I also strongly disagree that 'we wont be getting much value' from players like Cox, Perkins, Caldwell. It may be a bit too early for Hobbs, but I believe the others will play important roles. They were already best 22 or close last season. Anyways we are too far apart in our assessments of Essendons midfield, so it's probably better if we leave it here. We will see what happens this season.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
oh, ok. Go Charlie
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
The top four, Carlton, Sydney, Geelong. West Coasts midfield is way better when fit. Freo would be about equal with them. Not saying they can’t, but it would all have to come together You certainly won’t be getting much value out of the last 4 mids on the list above, Stringer will be needed forward, Heppell back. So that leaves Merrett and Parish as your two real A-grade midfielders, McGrath may come good, but I’m not sure he will.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
You mean Charlie Keegan?
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
where is Chuck?
Teeko
Roar Rookie
Which teams would you say have clearly better depth than Essendon?
Teeko
Roar Rookie
I also think we are lacking a bit in elite talent to really push up the ladder, but I wouldn't say we have a lot of 'average' players personally. Players like Merrett, Parish, Stringer, Ridley, Hind, Mcgrath (as a defender) could be A graders in 2022 in my opinion. Draper could be a very good ruckman. We also have some kids that were high draft picks which will hopefully add to that list too, such as Hobbs, Perkins, Cox, Reid, Caldwell. Jones was a later pick but has a lot of talent too. Agree that our forward line will be the mostly likely thing holding us back though.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
It's ok, for sure, but it depends on who you rate and how highly I guess
Teeko
Roar Rookie
I completely disagree,and I think it is our strongest area of the ground. I think we have great depth. Merrett, Parish, Shiel, Mcgrath probably get the most time out of our senior players. Players like Langford, Stringer, Heppell can go through there at a good level. Even Snelling played more midfield due to injuries last year and is a solid role player. Then there are the kids like Cox, Perkins, Caldwell, Hobbs etc. All high draft picks. Looks great to me.
Teeko
Roar Rookie
The Bombers lost to Hawthorn last season, so in terms of their double-ups they only really have one harder match they need to win to keep the same win/loss record as last season. But they only travel to Geelong or interstate five times, vs eleven times last year. So I don't agree that their draw is 'much more difficult'. Essendon did only win once against a finals team, but had close losses to Swans by 3 and 7 points, GWS by 2, and Melbourne by 11. Fremantle only won twice against Finals teams, and one of them was the Swans by only 2 points, so not much difference. Carlton only had the one win vs Essendon. West coast had the one win vs Port. Saints won three. Richmond four. I personally don't rate the Saints higher than those former teams though. Richmond potentially for sure, but their second half of the season was putrid. They are also aging with martin cotchin grimes lambert riewoldt all turning 31 years or older this season and all were in the top 10 of Richmond's best and fairest. Prestia will be 30 and is already getting a fair amount of soft tissue injuries. Tom lynch will be 30 and has had a few hammys in recent years, including one this pre-season. So there's no guarantees they will improve either.
Just some guy
Guest
I'm a fan, but Essendon have a lot of Average players and now have a lot of depth of average players but seems to be lacking high end talent. Much has been said about the run home and if it is real/sustainable. For me it is real because the improvement came from roster changes. Injuries somehow allowed opportunities and role changes to players who were better then the players they were replacing. Ie Parish + Stringer into the midfield. Mcgrath to Halfback a position he has proven success in is just another example of where this group has room to grow in a positional reshuffle. The main question with this team is will they be able to score... That's the most up in the air thing. Smith is more of a defensive SF, Wright is Mason Coxesque in his lack of coordination (but has had elite games) Jones is a 2nd year player then the rest is just Mids resting forward unless AMT/Tex are ready to play that SF role. I understand the pesimism there, but think they should be Okay. There seems to be decent depth there to fill the remaining 3-4 fwd spots
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
A simple 6 or 7 players for the season would suffice. You’d have to admit that’s a pretty devastating list of missed games. Especially if you add other key misses (Tucker missed 6 games and the magnificent Stephen Hill didn’t get on the field at all).
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
The bombers have a lot of similar midfielders. But I wouldn’t count them out yet particularly as truck has been working with the boys for another pre season.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
He may be at a good level but he will get better and better.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
:laughing: That's gold