Super Rugby tipping panel week 4: Hail to the new boys

Tosa Drua!

I’m sure plenty of us thought about tipping the Fijians last week, and I’d guess we’ll all think a bit harder about them from now on. Maybe not this week, but you get my point.

And it was fantastic to see Moana Pasifika start so strongly as well, to the point that I really do think that if there were any concerns about them being competitive in games this season, those concerns have quite likely eased on that really encouraging first showing, against the Crusaders of all teams.

EDS NOTE: This week’s tips were done before the Moana Pasifika match against Hurricanes was postponed due to Covid.

The Hairy Man did indeed tip bloody well to jag five last week, and the upshot of that is we suddenly have a three-way tie at the top – which isn’t bad in a five-horse race. The Reds’ commanding finish in the west certainly brought most of us undone, but not nearly as undone as the Rebels brought us.

Which brings us onto this week, and a couple of a curious games to tip within it – though I strongly suspect wavelengths are going to be pretty well aligned…

Last week: Harry 5, everyone else and The Crowd 4

Overall: Harry 13, Digger 13, Brett 13, The Crowd 12, Geoff 11

Harry

Blues, Brumbies, Hurricanes, Crusaders, Reds, Waratahs

The competition is starting to take shape: in Super Rugby Pacific, and in our tipping panel. Brett ‘Laidlaw’ McKay is either headed up or down the board, but he won’t stay stagnant.

I don’t believe our fearsome leader will tip the bogey Blues. But I will. I like what I see in this team. I don’t believe the Landers are scoring enough. Blues.

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

The safe Brumbies will punish the Rebels with old-fashioned power rugby. The Hurricanes will blow away Moana Pasifika, who will struggle to recover from attempting 250 tackles last week.

The Crusaders welcome a pack of All Blacks back, and will cane the Chiefs, who really needed to make that kick. The Reds are very fit this year. Harry Wilson’s pants are not as tight. Fraser McReight looks lean and hungry.

And then the humdinger, the main event, the decider! In the Aussie race to not join the Rebels in the bottom four, it’s Waratahs versus Force in Sydney in the closer. Will Harris versus Tim Anstee will be good, but likely end up like Dalton Papalii versus Sam Cane: a draw.

I think it’s at 9-10 this will be decided. Jake Gordon for me: Tahs by a whisker. The Force are in trouble.

Sure thing

If the Reds keep winning ugly, ugly will start looking pretty.

Digger

Blues, Brumbies, Hurricanes, Crusaders, Reds, Force

I think an astute Roar contributor summed the Highlanders up thus far with a comment along the lines of: ‘I believe they are trying to execute a game plan without the skill set to achieve it’, and it is hard to disagree with the sentiment.

The Blues of course have their own clunky issues to resolve but look to have too much firepower overall. And the Rebels are simply proving to be untippable at present, even more so against the high-flying Brumbies.

Assuming a game can go ahead, the Hurricanes should be too good for a surprising Moana Pasifika, even with last minute rings in from across the North Island, while I will back the Crusaders at home to scrape past what promises to be a formidable Chiefs challenge, especially up front.

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

The Reds look good to continue on their winning ways, but it will be interesting to see how the Drua fare after notching their first Super win.

And in what looks the toughest game to pick, I have decided to back the Force who always seem to have a little bit extra when facing the Waratahs.

Sure thing

Last weekend’s round will not be remembered for it being a classic with most sides struggling to execute for one reason or another, so expect a significant boost in that regard this weekend. Though unfortunately, many hairstyles will not get much better.

Brett

Blues, Brumbies, Hurricanes, Crusaders, Reds, Waratahs

I am going to pick the Blues, but not without nerves and not without many things crossed and/or clenched. Their net margin over the last two games is +1, so the nerves and clenching are with very bloody good reason.

The Brumbies, Crusaders, and Reds are all unbeaten and playing really well, and it’s hard to see that situation changing. The Drua will be buoyed by last week’s first win and a seemingly unwinnable game like this is exactly the sort of game the Chiefs have won in the past. Both have a chance, but a lot would have to go right.

The Rebels are none of the above, however.

The Hurricanes-Moana Pasifika game still looks to have a bit of a question mark about it, and you certainly hope it can go ahead. The fewer the games needing new dates, the better. The ‘Canes look a bit strong, either way.

And that just leaves the Waratahs-Force, which shapes as a ripping game on a Sunday afternoon. There’s really not much between the teams in terms of playing talent, bench depth, and pretty much any stat you’d care to throw up at the moment. It really only leaves home ground advantage for the ‘Tahs, and I’d apply it exactly the same way if the game was being played in Perth. Which it was originally going to be.

A crucial game neither team want to lose.

Sure thing

Might this be the week we see Golden Point dusted off for the first time? And maybe in a game none of us suspect?

Geoff

Blues, Brumbies, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Reds, Force

People complaining about Super Rugby Pacific lacking cutting edge entertainment obviously didn’t watch Pakistan grind out 728 for the loss of only four wickets on the Rawalpindi Expressway. Give me a dozen scrum resets and ten TMO interruptions, any day!

The Highlanders need a lot to go right for them to beat the Blues. COVID in the camp isn’t what they need. Nor is their organisation failing to name the affected players, due to privacy reasons.

Which sounds fair enough until you realise all will be revealed anyway, when the match day 23 is announced. Nobody will be tipping the Rebels over the Brumbies; myself included.

Despite Moana Pasifika’s encouraging debut, they won’t be beating the Hurricanes. The Crusaders will be back to something closer to full strength, but I like the way the Chiefs’ pack is shaping up.

Lightning won’t strike twice for the Drua – not against the Reds, anyway. Which leaves a genuine toss-up game in soggy Sydney to finish the round. Force for me, in what should be a great contest.

Sure thing

Rugby people all around the globe will be scratching their heads, trying to understand why Michael Cheika would trade something he’s very good at (being a Stan rugby analyst) for something he’s not very good at (being an international coach).

Get your votes in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEDT.

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