We are just beyond halfway in the season, 13 games in the vault, with Richmond ninth. They are one game out of eight, with a higher percentage and played one game fewer than the eighth team.
The occupier of eighth is Collingwood who the Tigers beat four weeks ago. But the Magpies are the only top-eight team they have beaten.
Richomd are about to play Carlton at home then Geelong away – sorry, at the MCG.
This is their crossroads.
Does this scenario sound familiar? Did this not happen in 2019 and 2021? I am pretty sure this outcome will be different to those years.
Most teams in Richmond’s position you would not even consider that they were a chance of the finals, let alone to hold the cup.
At the start of the year, before the first game, I unwisely put myself on the line. I said Richmond would drop to 13th. Most predicted a Richmond bounce to top four. I believed that there were three main requirements for the Tigers to return from the wilderness: Tom Lynch playing like his salary demands, Damien Hardwick devising a new gameplan, and Dustin Martin recovering physically and mentally.
Lynch seems like a changed man. He has dropped the sneaky, sniper behind-play antics, although as a backman I would still be nervous. He has started to do his job, and do it well, of taking marks and goal. A recent hamstring injury has hobbled him for a few games but he is back now. Requirement one, tick.
Dusty has had it hard, following a serious kidney injury and his father’s death. When he has played, he has had flashes but he has not been a star. He will probably be out or at least weakened with the flu this week. He is a work in progress. Requirement two, a possibility.
Dustin Martin (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Hardwick did try a new plan, which pretty much the same as the rest of the league in a moving press and flood to stop the opposition’s progress. He tried a twist of playing two ruckmen to push through the press but has now gone back to the plan of old: three men back and as soon as they win the ball, a full team manic advancing run. But he has kept his talls, just in case the press is already in place. It has worked well against average teams, let’s see how it works against contenders or at least the good pretenders.
Richmond has been blessed with almost no injuries this year. This is a little surprising seeing their high number of older players. Even the old warhorse Dion Prestia is fit (mostly).
Shai Bolton has moved up and taken Dusty’s mantle. A very dangerous player and a game winner. Absolutely no defensive ability but that is not his role. It wasn’t Dusty’s either.
Jake Aarts seems to be a failed experiment. Sydney Stack, Matthew Parker and Marlion Pickett are in the same basket. Daniel Rioli is much loved but I am not sure if it is with the Richmond fans or the opposition’s bursting players.
Maurice Rioli is doing a few exciting things but not enough for a whole game. Fortunately, like his namesake, he does have a fast, desperate, lunging defence to put pressure on the opposition players.
So the Tigers have almost full availability but a mixed bag of ability with champion players. With their game plan, that is all they needed previously.
Carlton is the first test for the Tigers but it is more of a test for the Blues. Certainly last year, the spindly foal that is Carlton would not have the confidence to take on and beat Richmond. They have lapse quarters with no pressure. But the Tigers will need to be able to stem the goal onslaughts.
The Cats will be out for blood. If the Tigers can beat them, even be competitive, they will be on their way to the finals.
The week after they have the West Coast bye.
The Richmond train is at the station, there is a low rumble of their fans getting on board, getting excited. As the train pulls out, the fighting fury of expectations rise. This will be the same as 2019. All the Tigers need to do is make the eight. Dusty will take care of business then.
Richmond, this year, is it the enigma within the mirage or the mirage within the enigma?
1dawg
Roar Rookie
Quite time or year for some certain supporters :stoked: good luck this weekend :thumbup:
Clear as mud
Guest
It’s a trade off. The longer we keep hanging on like Kim Wilde, the harder it’s going to be to be build the next wave There’s no right answer, just a difficult choice. (But results and history show that going 1-2!seasons too long and misreading where you really are at can be a big, big problem. I don’t see our spluttering older legs and flaky skills on this list at the moment being the group who can buck the trend. Not with the super teams around at the moment. (Benny, what is the FIVE YEAR PLAN?)
Clear as mud
Guest
Thanks I would have drawn the line after last year, we were way off the pace coming down quickly This is a sort of Hawks 2018 bounce for mine. Prefer to go hard for the next wave of upsurge. Is now 2-3 years delayed.
Clear as mud
Guest
Balta out makes it harder to contain Hawkins and Cameron. Ensures we have to pick Tarrant/ which is a win for a Geelong IMHO. Good test for us. Last year we were still 10 points up early in the third - and then 6 goals down at 3/4 time as our will gave in, 18 premiership players on the park and we were pantsed yet again that year, my canny prediction of 5 goals to the Rider of Rohan coming true. (What a blitz, the reigning Premiers losing the second half 86-14!!! It was all over there and then - if it wasn’t after the Swans game). Both sides are another year on. But the young Cats look superior to the young Tigs. We will see what we see! We will get a goo
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Thanks Oracle. Pickett, maybe work in progress. Certainly no success yet. Pretty much agree about team quality. 2019 the jolly greater giants where the better team flesh per flesh. That wasn’t close. Good luck this week. The Cats have their bats out. But you do have a full team, including Prestia. Cats are very thin midfield due to injury. It could be a classic. I think you are finals bound in either case. Just to bring in a downer. You have gone back to your old game plan. It may not be good enough against the top teams. They have been coming up with cunning plans to beat you buzzards for five years. And the umps have three rules to fix you up.
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Mud, good debate for Tiger fans. From my perspective looking at the list: Average Age 25.1 (Freo the greatest team of all time 24.1), Cats oldest team and a premiership favourite! Keep list - Age/grade Vlastuin 28 - B Grimes 30 - A Prestia 29 - A Dusty 30 - A Ross 21 - C Tarrant 32 - C has his role against the big forward - will see against Hawkins Baker 24 - A most improved Jack R 33 -B may be good enough to play on Short 26 - B Rioli 25 - B speed and reinvented himself Lynch 29 - A Soldo 26 - C when required Balta 22 - B future star Nank 27 - B Dow 20 - Gibcus 19 - B future star, potentially replaces Jack Bolton 23 - A yet to break a game open, will happen Mansell 21 - love this kid Graham 24 - B solid Broad 29 - B great year RalphSmith - B, love this kid Miller 22 - Back up backman Rioli Jnr 20 - still learning Cumberland 21 - give him a run Ryan 21 - still learning Pickett 30 - B love his hardness Brown 18 - still learning Banks 19 - still learning Clarke 18 - still learning Nyoun 20 - still learning Martyn 21 - still learning Sonsie 19 - still learning Stack 21 - give him another season Bauer 20 - still learning Collina 22- still learning Edwards 33 - Retire Cotchin 32- Retire Lambert 30 - Retire, injury Castagna 25 - Trade Aarts 27 - Trade RCD 22- Trade McIntosh 28 - Trade Parker 26 - Trade Up to 8 new trades for next season. 4 in the draft and 3 new players from other lists. We probably keep McIntosh, but this should give 3 youngsters currently on our list a full run next season. Now remember some players are not our first 22 but could be solid backups. Currently Aarts, Parker, Miller and Dow would be in this group. Ross is an enigma, 34 poss in the VFL but last start in the Seniors a shocker. We just have to manage our older players out and selectively pick up replacements. Definitely need an established quality midfielder next season and should have cash with the 3 retirements. I am happy where we are at, given our success.
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Good effort Yattz, got on your post late. Pickett has been solid and no failure, he is in our best 22. We have never had the best team in the comp but I have always said when fully fit we can challenge anyone. The Tiger train has left the station and everyone will be on board if we run over the pussy Cats at the G. That is not a must win game but a bonus. Our list is healthier this year because of the full pre-season and early treatment of injuries last year season end. The trick is to manage some of the players such as Prestia, Cotch, Martin, Lambert so they can peak come finals. We have a pretty easy draw with most tough games in Melbourne against Cats, Lions and Dockers, hopefully with plenty of rain. :thumbup:
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Agree love Pickett, tough as nails, how’s that tackle on Cripps, made him think twice about taking on Tiger tackles. Also good speed and fit. Mud, the AFL is not designed so teams can win 3 Premierships in 4 years. We shouldn’t be contending finals this year so I am rapt to think we are a show against the Cats to push for a top 4 position.
sven
Roar Rookie
yeah ross hasnt nailed his opportunities yet, ralphsmith shows a bit & has electrifying pace, just needs to impact more ... after what theyve achieved im just gonna trust the coaching staff have got it under control ... been great edwards but is close to done u would think ... hopefully get a few finals into some youngsters this year at least n build from there
Clear as mud
Guest
they have given Ross 24 games in the last 2 seasons and RCD (taken 25 picks higher) 11 including only 2 this year. Dow about the same. Martyn 3 in total. but M Rioli is getting a game on frisson and not much else. Ralphsmith is OK but not going to be elite. (the 5 picks from 2019 draft are all still at club and have 31 games between them. boo!) Anyway I think Edwards would go if he wasn't so near 300? and that slot would then be available to get games into someone younger
sven
Roar Rookie
he has got the odd game last couple of years after bursting onto the scene in '19 (prob would have played in that flag team if he didnt get injured late in the year), hope they persist with him, he showed some signs that he could be an exceptional player, the kid would barely be 21 i think ... RCD seems to have gone backwards after showing a bit last year, hopefully another one that can step up
Clear as mud
Guest
first and second rounder? or straight swap for Castagna, who is a Giants stadium specialist? he knows every inch either side of the goalposts there.
Clear as mud
Guest
i just presumed stack is not even in contention any more. bundle him into the "go West" trade I reckon. hope he can do something with his obvious talent. Freo???
Clear as mud
Guest
maybe but i would take the 26 year old Bont easily over the current others, except Petracca
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Tom Green from GWS is our answer. Edwards and Cotch retire to give us cap space. Continue with the draft. I think Dow is ok. RCD goes, Ross not sure on. Sonsie will come on over time. Do they give Cumberland a run.
sven
Roar Rookie
have changed my mind about picket, his skills are a bit sus at times but he runs hard, gets back to help in defense (eg was very good 2020 granny when cats were dominating 2nd qrt), is hard as nails & tackles really well, his tackle on cripps 1st qrt thurs night was a beauty, esp on a powerful beast like cripps ... btw didnt see sydney stack in your ratings there clear as, but disappointed he hasnt come after showing some real ability in his first year
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
The Bont is a super player but at their best, I would take Dangerfield, Fyfe, Martin or Petracca over him. He just doesn't have that elite pace for player who earns about $950K a season. Maybe I am being too picky???
Clear as mud
Guest
Mihocek. Like him. Lots
Clear as mud
Guest
His stats are poor to mediocre My view is we will wake up next year realising how far away we are and will have poured games into Parker and Pickett and Tarrant and the like over the last two years, and 4 or 5 kids will have 10-20 fewer games (with our ageing stars, who will be gone) than they could have. So the rebuild and real contention slips into the distance. It’s the same mistake Hawthorn and Brisbane before then made. But it’s hard to resist going hard while you can (as I have said above, if we had rolled the dice and really topped up - fair enough. But only getting Tarrant shows how close we thought we were - and we are not. Haven’t been since early last year. We are falling across the line against mid table sides, but without the likely late improvement we showed in 19 and 20.)
O M
Roar Rookie
Maybe next year but whilst we’re still in contention this year his experience, versatility and toughness in the contest makes him the better option.