With only six rounds remaining before the AFL finals get underway, this week I am resting my round previews to provide a two-part analysis of your team’s run home and what chances they have of featuring in September.
Today looks at the teams currently in the eight, and what chances your team has of securing the all-important double chance, securing a home elimination final, or taking up the last two places in the eight.
Part 2 will look at the teams currently outside of the eight, and whether teams such as St Kilda, the Western Bulldogs or Gold Coast Suns can play finals, while the interest will centre around whether North Melbourne can avoid a second-straight wooden spoon.
Geelong Cats
Currently: first (12-4, 136.1%)
Matches to play: Carlton (MCG), Port Adelaide (Oval), Western Bulldogs (GMHBA), St Kilda (GMHBA), Gold Coast Suns (Metricon), West Coast Eagles (GMHBA)
Having moved to the top of the ladder courtesy of their win over Melbourne, top spot is the Cats’ to lose.
Chris Scott’s men will face a tough test of its finals credentials in the next fortnight, first facing Carlton at the MCG this Saturday night followed by a trip to the Oval to face a Port Adelaide side whose finals hopes still remain alive.
After that, three of their final four games are back at Kardinia Park, with the first two seeing them look to extinguish the finals hopes of the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda, who both sit just outside the eight, in tenth and ninth respectively.
The only other interstate trip they will make in the run home is to the Gold Coast where they will face a Suns side which could still be in finals contention, though the expectation is that the Cats will also extinguish the finals hopes of the men on the holiday strip.
They then wrap up the regular season with a game against the West Coast Eagles, to whom they have not lost at home since 2006.
I cannot see them losing any of their six remainders and they should finish top of the ladder for the second time in four years, though in their first final I have them facing Fremantle – who famously secured a qualifying final win at Kardinia Park in 2013.
Predicted finish: first, qualifying final vs Fremantle at MCG
Melbourne Demons
Currently: second (12-4, 133.4%)
Matches to play: Port Adelaide (TP), Western Bulldogs (Marvel), Fremantle (Optus), Collingwood (MCG), Carlton (MCG), Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
Having been dislodged from top spot, Melbourne faces a tough task trying to retain its place in the top two, with its trip to Alice Springs to play a home game against Port Adelaide being the third in a string of five straight matches away from the MCG.
Not even the return of Max Gawn and Luke Jackson against the Cats last week could prevent the Dees from suffering their first loss outside of the MCG since Round 13 last year.
Following the game against the Power, they’ll face the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium in a grand final rematch and then Fremantle at Optus Stadium, which is followed by consecutive MCG games against Collingwood and Carlton.
All that leads up to a potential finals preview when they travel to the Gabba to face the Brisbane Lions, with the likelihood that whichever team wins this match will host a qualifying final between the same sides in the first week of the finals.
Predicted finish: second, qualifying final vs Brisbane Lions at MCG
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Fremantle Dockers
Currently: third (12-4, 123.8%)
Matches to play: Sydney Swans (Optus), Richmond (Marvel), Melbourne (Optus), Western Bulldogs (Marvel), West Coast Eagles (Optus), GWS Giants (Manuka Oval)
Finals will come early for Fremantle when they welcome the Sydney Swans to Optus Stadium this Saturday night, with a large crowd expected on hand for a potential September preview.
Win that match and Justin Longmuir’s side will almost certainly book their first finals berth since 2015, after which their focus can turn towards potentially securing the double chance with winnable matches against the Western Bulldogs and GWS to come in the run home.
They do, however, also face a Friday night trip to face Richmond at Marvel Stadium, followed by a home match in prime time against Melbourne, in which the Dockers will wear their famous anchor-dominated heritage jumper.
As the best-performed team on the road this season (apart from the Victorian clubs), the Dockers’ reasonable run to September should earn them the double chance and a qualifying final showdown against the Cats in which they will fancy their chances.
Why, you ask? Because not only are the Cats’ recent September record poor, the Dockers have also beaten them in their past two finals meetings, knocking them out of premiership contention in 2012 followed by a stunning upset at Kardinia Park in 2013.
Though they shouldn’t look too far ahead, the Purple Haze can look forward to the next two months with optimism as their side returns to September after six long years without finals football.
Predicted finish: fourth, qualifying final vs Geelong Cats at MCG
Brisbane Lions
Currently: fourth (11-5, 124%)
Matches to play: GWS Giants (Manuka Oval), Gold Coast Suns (Gabba), Richmond (MCG), Carlton (Gabba), St Kilda (Marvel), Melbourne (Gabba)
Three losses on the road (of which two were against Freo and Melbourne on the road), as well as last week’s upset loss to Essendon at home, have suddenly put a dent in the Brisbane Lions’ premiership hopes.
Chris Fagan’s side will start favourites in three of their next five matches, in which they will face certain non-finalists the GWS Giants, Gold Coast Suns and St Kilda, with only the match against the Suns being at home.
They must also travel to the MCG for a second time this season to face Richmond, with this to be their last chance to prove themselves at the home of football before September.
Their record at the home of football is nothing short of appalling, having not won at the venue since 2014 with their most recent match at the venue ending in an embarrassing 64-point loss to Melbourne last month.
The Dees will again await in the final round, though this time it’ll be at the Gabba with the likelihood that the Lions will have to win by a sufficient margin, and hope other results go their way, if they are to again host the reigning premiers in the first week of the finals.
In the end, I have the Lions finishing third and facing the Dees again in a qualifying final, but this time at the MCG.
Predicted finish: third, qualifying final vs Melbourne at MCG
Carlton Blues
Currently: fifth (11-5, 116.8%)
Matches to play: Geelong Cats (MCG), GWS Giants (Marvel), Adelaide Crows (Oval), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Melbourne (MCG), Collingwood (MCG)
On the verge of locking in their first finals appearance since 2013, the Blues face a tough run home, including Saturday night’s clash against the Geelong Cats as well as back-to-back trips to Adelaide and Brisbane to face the Crows and Lions respectively.
They will however start favourites against the Giants and Crows in rounds 19 and 20 respectively, and following their trip to the Gabba they will face an early test of their finals credentials against reigning premiers Melbourne and Collingwood in the final two rounds.
Given four of their six remaining opponents will be pushing for a top-four berth, as well as the likelihood that the Blues will start underdogs in these matches, I can’t see them winning more than two of their remaining matches, meaning they will finish eighth.
This would see them face a trip to Sydney to face the Swans in what would be a throwback to the side’s recent finals match, which ended in a loss to the then-reigning premiers at Accor Stadium in 2013.
This time around, the opportunity will arise for Michael Voss’ men to end their interstate finals hoodoo, having not yet won a finals match outside of Victoria.
Predicted finish: eighth, elimination final vs Sydney Swans at SCG
Collingwood Magpies
Currently: 6th (11-5, 106.3%)
Matches to play: Adelaide Crows (Oval), Essendon (MCG), Port Adelaide (MCG), Melbourne (MCG), Sydney Swans (SCG), Carlton (MCG)
A travel-friendly fixture has the Pies travelling just twice in the run home, including to the Oval this Saturday afternoon for a clash against the Adelaide Crows in which they will start favourites, having not been beaten by the men from West Lakes since 2016.
Craig McRae’s side will also start favourites against the Bombers at home in Round 19 – the first in a string of three straight MCG matches which also includes their first Friday night clash against Melbourne since 2007.
In between, they can all but end Port Adelaide’s finals hopes in what will be their ninth meeting in Victoria out of their past twelve matches dating back to the 2013 elimination final.
The only other match they have to play outside the confines of the MCG sees them make the short trip north to Sydney where they will face the Swans in what looms as a play-off for a home elimination final, that’s followed by a final round clash against Carlton back at home.
I have them winning their next three matches, followed by a win against the Blues which should secure then, at best, an ‘away’ elimination final against Richmond that’s set to attract a massive crowd at the MCG.
Predicted finish: seventh, elimination final vs Richmond at MCG
Sydney Swans
Currently: 7th (10-6, 120.5%)
Matches to play: Fremantle (Optus), Adelaide Crows (SCG), GWS Giants (SCG), North Melbourne (Marvel), Collingwood (SCG), St Kilda (Marvel)
Finals will come early for the Sydney Swans who make the long trip to Perth to face third-placed Fremantle at Optus Stadium this Saturday night.
Recent history has not favoured the red and white, who have lost three of their past four against the Dockers, though all three of those losses came at Optus Stadium where the Swans are undefeated against other opposition (2-0 vs West Coast and 1-0 vs GWS).
Following that, they will start favourites in most of their remaining matches, including back-to-back SCG matches against the Adelaide Crows and GWS Giants, teams which will not contest finals this year.
They’ll also have to face North Melbourne and St Kilda, each for a second time this season, at Marvel Stadium on either side of what is likely to be a play-off for a home final against Collingwood at the SCG in the penultimate round.
I have them losing only this week’s match against the Dockers, and winning the rest; this should earn them a home elimination final against the Pies and, if they win that, a semi-final berth against whoever loses out of the Geelong Cats and Fremantle.
Predicted finish: fifth, elimination final vs Carlton at SCG
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Richmond Tigers
Currently: eighth (9-7, 116.4%)
Matches to play: North Melbourne (Marvel), Fremantle (Marvel), Brisbane Lions (MCG), Port Adelaide (Oval), Hawthorn (MCG), Essendon (MCG)
Last week’s heartbreaking post-siren loss to the Gold Coast Suns has severely dented Richmond’s hopes of a double chance, with their immediate focus now turning towards securing a home elimination final in week one of the finals.
Damien Hardwick might privately not be happy that their next two matches are at Marvel Stadium, though they haven’t played at the venue since round three and will start favourites against North Melbourne and Fremantle in the next fortnight.
The Tigers only have to make one trip out of Victoria in the run home, and that’s to face a Port Adelaide side which will be fighting to keep its finals hopes alive at the Oval on a Saturday night in round 21.
Three of their final four matches are at the MCG, including in round 20 against the Brisbane Lions, which will give them the chance to flex their finals muscle ahead of a projected blockbuster knock-out final against Collingwood at the venue in week one of the finals series.
Predicted finish: sixth, elimination final vs Collingwood at MCG
Stay tuned for Part II which will feature the teams currently outside the eight.
Clear as mud
Guest
we are real good (at our best) but getting eliminated and the playing the Boues is beyond even us! (unless it's in London in the offseason)
O M
Roar Rookie
Yeah, you make a good point when indicate that Carlton still may not make the 8.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I am a waste of time but you can’t leave it alone. Just because I responded first doesn’t mean you didn’t pick a fight. First you trotted out “You’re not saying that Carlton really won those 2 games are you Macca???”, when that didn’t work you went to an obsession with the phrase “everyone else” and then you tried to claim I called you a liar when I clearly didn’t. It is your MO, you have little to do with your time so you try and start arguments on here and then when things don’t go your way you turn to petty insults. Sometimes I feel like playing and sometimes I don’t, today I felt like playing and watching you melt down is quite enjoyable.
O M
Roar Rookie
I didn’t pick a fight, you did. You responded to my post remember??? Yeah, you’re weird alright….you actually believe you know what “everyone else” in the world thinks! That’s unbelievable. Like I said, just go away…..now!
Macca
Roar Rookie
So you pick a fight, won't leave it alone, get shown to be wrong but I am the one who is a waste of time and weird? What is that saying about the Pot and the Kettle.
O M
Roar Rookie
Do you know what is ridiculous? The fact that you think you know what everyone else in the world thinks! :laughing: Go away Macca….you’re an absolute waste of time. You are seriously weird.
Macca
Roar Rookie
So you weren’t speaking hypthetically to maeka point when you said “How about I just say everyone else thought the Tigers should have won by a lot more than they did.”You actually believe that statement to be true? If that is the case then yes I am calling you a liar, but you weren’t and you don’t, so I didn’t.
O M
Roar Rookie
Yeah, you did….that’s what’s so funny. Perhaps you need to read your own comments and see how stupid they are. Be very careful Macca! I don’t appreciate being called a liar.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Did I call you a Liar? Perhaps you need to slow down and think about what is actually being said, you have a tendency to jump to conclusions that aren’t actually being said.
O M
Roar Rookie
Its pretty obvious to everyone else but you, that you wouldn't know what everyone else thought. How about I just say everyone else thought the Tigers should have won by a lot more than they did. The ARC made the correct decision, the Tigers won the game....time to build a bridge and get over it.
Macca
Roar Rookie
By everyone else I mean everyone else.
O M
Roar Rookie
You still haven't clarified what you mean by "everyone else" and how you know or established it. Is it everyone else in your head? In your house? In the MCG? In your suburb? In Melbourne? In Victoria? In Australia? Or in the World? You're just sounding plain silly! :laughing:
Macca
Roar Rookie
Says the Bloke who had us losing our last 4 games
Macca
Roar Rookie
I wasn't aware "everyone else" was restricted to categories.
O M
Roar Rookie
8th is more likely for the Blues.
Andrew
Guest
If we get a Geelong win, there's a fair chance we can get top 4. So Tigers might be eliminated before ever getting to play the Blues. :stoked:
O M
Roar Rookie
Looks like we're both confident. That's what will make this year a great Finals Series.....any of the 8 Teams could win it.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
The team we want to face the most in finals is the Tigers. Confident we have them covered after that last performance if that’s the best they can do. The only stats that matter are the ones on the scoreboard and we’ll be miles in front next time round.
O M
Roar Rookie
To use a well worn statement from the Carlton (haven’t won anything in a long time) supporters here, all the stats pointed to a much bigger win by the Tigers. No Team is going to want to play a fit Richmond in the Finals!
Cloak
Roar Rookie
Geelong and Fremantle should, on current form, finish top 2. If Geelong beat Carlton this week they would surely be odds on to go 6-0 from here. Fremantle on paper should be favourites to win all three of their home games, they get Richmond at Marvel rather than the G (they might beat them at the G anyway), and they should be too good for the Dogs and GWS on the road. Could easily go 6-0 but you'd expect them to drop one or two given they've already dropped games you wouldn't have expected them to drop to St Kilda, Gold Coast and Collingwood. Melbourne by contrast are battling for top 4, not top 2. We need to beat Port and the Dogs, then find at least one win from the last four (likely Collingwood). If we get 3 wins from here, Carlton/Collingwood will have to go 5-1 and catch up the percentage gap to pass us. Wouldn't put that past Carlton, but they do have a tough draw. If we click like we did last year at this time, we'll win all six games, but it's near impossible right now to see us clicking all of a sudden given the lack of form we've been in for the last six weeks. You'd think Gold Coast is the only side out of the 8 with a draw kind enough to get them past Richmond, given it'd be hard to see Richmond not getting to at least 12 wins by beating North, Hawthorn and Essendon. They also get Brisbane at the G, where we all know the Lions haven't won for an eternity, which puts 13 well within Richmond's reach. Everyone else above Richmond will get to 13 so the finals debate really seems to be down to Richmond v Gold Coast. So it's probably fair to say Gold Coast's season is on the line this week with a tricky match up against Essendon. They should win, and if they do they get the buffer they need to make finals, as they could afford to drop one of the Brisbane and Geelong games and still get to 13.