We’ll know going into our game what a win means for our ladder position.

But IMO we won’t care and we’ll set out to treat the game like our first final. Sydney are a great match up for us IMO. We know how important it is to be in form and I’d rather us win and play Brisbane than lose and play Collingwood.

The next inside 50 contest after the ARC, Gawn was running back with the flight and a Carlton player blocked his run, with the ball still a mile off, impeding his chance of getting to the drop.

Just like what you think happened to Marchbank, that almost never gets paid. As you say, if you want the Marchbank one paid, you have to cop the Gawn one paid.

Ultimately we lost this game in the first 5 minutes of the fourth by giving up three stoppage goals. Goals were at a premium all night due to both sides’ elite pressure but we dropped off for 5 minutes and you made us pay, as good sides do. The ARC and other umpiring decisions (the non-50 against us, the non-free to Van Rooyen for having his legs taken out) are just more umpiring issues in a season marred by them. Whilst I maintain it wasn’t touched, it is what it is because of the rules and the technology. It’s not in our control. The three stoppage goals were.

They were never bad enough to be 4-1-8. It was a false scoreline. This sort of form is what we all (perhaps not jaded Carlton supporters!) expected of them this year.

They are not just the form team of the comp, they are also playing flag-winning football – strong at contest, defensively sound, and able to score (although that appears to remain their weakness – they had insane territory dominance in the first half last night for a sub-goal lead).

If they don’t win it this year it will likely be because they have had to win 10 in a row to make finals and still finish outside the top 4. Which will mean their season was lost in that mid-season slump. But the fact their form now is strong should be no surprise to anyone.

I take it you haven’t been watching much of us the last month Chanon.

We’ve had 4 straight scores of 97+ and three of those were high intensity/pressure games. Have come back from 20+ points down in three of those games too.

Some Melbourne supporters are concerned we’ve gone too far away from our defensiveness to unlock that scoring.

Right now we are far from boring.

Sure. But had you lost, I’m confident one of the first things you would have cited was the absence of Walsh, Cerra and Kennedy from your midfield.

Hawthorn has six wins: Collingwood, Brisbane, St Kilda, North, North, West Coast. That’s three meaningful wins.

They’ve also lost 8 games by 54+ points – North’s count on that metric is 5 (West Coast’s is 9).

Fantastic win, future there, but “coach of the year”? Spare me.

They shouldn’t have been belted in the stoppages by your depleted midfield, though.

They should be good enough to beat Richmond at Marvel, because almost any side is good enough to beat Richmond at Marvel. But are they really troubling Geelong or Brisbane (in Brisbane) after that? I doubt it. Would leave them at 12-11 and with their poor percentage, at risk of being overtaken not just by Geelong and Sydney, but by Adelaide too.

Rationally this take is a reasonable one.

But Geelong has a habit of displacing rational takes with exceptional performance.

I won’t write them off making finals until it happens. And if they make it, even if not in tip top form, I won’t write them off winning their first final until it happens. Who knows, if they can even limp in, get a rest with the pre-finals bye, and then draw a favourable match up (St Kilda or the Dogs for example), who knows.

IMO there’s no doubt the ball change impacted the innings but we should still have won from the platforms we had at 0/140 and 3/264.

We lost this Test because of Day 1 – five dropped catches. And we let them score a further 71 runs after Brook got out (through just Woakes, Wood, Broad and Anderson) – in a match we lost by 50 runs.

Makes you wonder why we rushed him back from his longer injury to shove him back into defence at the expense of Tomlinson who played his best game since coming to our club on King’s Birthday.

Wasn’t (Ben) King goalless for the first two games with (Steven) King?

Hardly an instantaneous turnaround.

Disappointed that your “bog average” side is sitting 2 games and percentage clear in the top 4, Cam?

For the record, the game was split evenly in terms of momentum (if you think Brisbane had the better of the 30 minutes before our comeback, then you should also think we had the better of the 30 minutes after our fast start, remembering we still lead by 5 goals 9 minutes into the second quarter). But on almost every indicator of strength of performance, we shaded them – more disposals yet more tackles, more contested possessions, more clearances, more contested marks, fewer clangers, more shots on goal.

It is impossible to have a truly equal fixture, because the only truly equal fixture is a 34 game fixture where everyone plays everyone else home and away. In this sport, that many games cannot work.

A 17 game fixture is unequal – some sides will get, for example, Brisbane or Port or Geelong away, others will get them at home.

Conferences are unequal – it happens all the time in the NFL, with sides making playoffs because they win their weak division. They’ve added more wildcards to get more of the stronger sides from stronger divisions into playoffs but the division winners still get the home ground advantage in the first playoff. Regardless, it’s still unequal.

The current model is unequal but steps can be taken to improve it which don’t lead to the poorly-thought-through 17-6 model. For starters, a transparent policy requiring the double-up games to be rotated over a 2-4 year period, such that over a certain period every side must play every other side at least once/twice home and away. That avoids stupid situations like Melbourne not having played West Coast at the MCG since 2014 whilst having played them in Perth for 9 straight years. Let’s also avoid clubs playing five straight games at the same venue (e.g. St Kilda right now at Marvel). Let’s do our best to ensure all Victorian clubs travel the same number of times. Let’s have Geelong host all 11 games in Geelong. Stop requiring MCG tenants to host home games at Marvel, and if you can’t do that, at the very least stop making them host Marvel tenants in those games (e.g. Collingwood hosting North, Hawthorn hosting St Kilda).

I don’t have a problem with Carlton hosting St Kilda at Marvel; Carlton is a Marvel tenant.

Hawthorn is not, and is forced to host games there to make up for the AFL’s minimum requirement – which, by the way, is a problem being foisted on Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond (and in previous years and perhaps again soon if we stop selling a game to the NT, Melbourne) because Carlton and Essendon keep getting to host games at the G. Whilst that’s bad enough, it’s markedly worse when Hawthorn get given St Kilda as an “away” side.

Surely Amiss is at least level if not in front? Playing key forward in a bottom 4 side not exactly renowned for aggressive ball movement and still averaging 2 goals a game, all while 19 years old?

Ashcroft is fantastic, don’t get me wrong, but he has the exceptional support of Dunkley, Neale, McCluggage, Bailey etc.

Can anyone recall a side worse than St Kilda sitting in the top 6 this late into a season? And now they get 5 straight games at Marvel – no side should ever get 5 straight games at the same venue. Worse still, one of them is an away game vs Hawthorn. Utterly ridiculous fixturing.

The following two statements can both be true:

Marnus’ century has kept us in the match.

Marnus’ dismissal was poor and he should still be out there.

He got out to a half tracker from a part time bowler shortly before tea knowing that we needed someone, anyone, to bunker down and bat time to save the Ashes. Obviously he did what the others failed to so and scored big runs but from where he was, with the control he had showed, he should have gone on with it.

If we get a session of play on Day 5 the game is still on. Our tail has collapsed a number of times this series.

To beat Collingwood you either have to dominate when you get the game on your terms (eg Brisbane earlier this year) or be able to stare down the inevitable fourth quarter press (eg Melbourne on KB).

Port were better for longer but 5.9 to 3.1 didn’t convert their dominance to the scoreboard, and then they weren’t able to withstand the fourth quarter rush. No shame in any of that but reminds everyone that it takes a lot to beat Collingwood, even interstate.

The series didn’t turn on the Carey stumping.

If it turned anywhere, it was on Day 2 at Headingley when we had them 7/140-odd, well behind our first innings, but proceeded to bowl repeated bouncers at their tail.

But in reality we have just progressively been worn down by a side who wasn’t that much worse than us across the first two Tests. We have tired bowlers bereft of plans and confidence, and a batting lineup failing almost every knock (it doesn’t help that we continue to play Warner).

Most of how we have approached this Test has been a failure. The XI picked is clearly wrong, the batsmen aren’t applying themselves, the return to bouncers at Anderson shows the bowlers aren’t in the right frame of mind.

IMO this says less about Collingwood and more about Brisbane, Port and Melbourne – they are capable of getting it done in high-pressure games which means it isn’t a fait accompli that Collingwood waltzes through finals.

Although if Collingwood beats Port this weekend I believe that will be the first and only one of these victories to go to a travelling side.

Also, minor point but we play North in Tassie, so that’s a second interstate trip for us in the run home. A classic game we are drawn to play almost every year, like the trip to Geelong.

We won’t pass Brisbane and we won’t go undefeated from here – whether it’s Adelaide, Carlton or Richmond, I don’t see us winning all three. Fourth looks to be our likely landing point. It will become a lot safer if we win this week and Brisbane beat Geelong – will have Geelong 2.5 games behind us with 5 to come, meaning even if we only beat North and Hawthorn after that, Geelong would have to go 5-0 to pass us.

For the other four spots, Carlton feels the most likely to make it but that’s a bit of recency bias speaking; a month ago Adelaide felt like that side. Still, Carlton’s in form at the right time and should never have been as low on the ladder as they slipped. Had they been sitting around Essendon/St Kilda’s ladder spots all year and were coming into form now we’d be talking about them in even more positive light.

I think I would have felt the same had we fallen just short. Our ability to dig deep when you had us on the ropes was really pleasing. I was concerned we’d play out a lame last quarter to end up 15-25 point losers and reflecting on a rather comprehensive loss despite opening with the best 8 minutes of football we’ve played since 2021.

But you had the complete better of us for 90% of the middle two quarters and showed how good your ball movement is. Very dangerous when on song.

Maybe. But we’re now 2-2 against the top 4, which is the same record as Brisbane, just below Port (2-1) and just above Collingwood (1-2). We might be the weakest of the 4, but I think it’s fair to say we at least belong.

Swans have to win 5 of their last 6 to get to 12.5, as 11.5 is unlikely to make it.

That means they can only afford to lose 1 of Fremantle, Essendon, GWS and Adelaide on the road, plus GC and Melbourne at home.

Not sure they will get there.