ANALYSIS: Lacking belief and constrained by uncertainty, the All Blacks are suffering in the land of the long dark cloud

In the week following an All Blacks loss, the literal English translation of Aotearoa changes to ‘the land of the long, dark cloud’.

While the nation’s psyche is no longer as intrinsically intertwined with the All Blacks like was in the days pre the 1981 Springbok tour, the truth is that rugby – and the performance of the All Blacks – still matters. A lot.

A long dark cloud is an uncomfortable place under which to reside. Particularly for fans whose memories extend only back as far as 2008. For them, the All Blacks have been associated mostly with the good vibes of success.

In recent times, with four losses in five Tests, that hasn’t been so much the case. And definitely not where Ireland, arriving at the series decider with confidence and momentum, is concerned.

So, when Saturday in Wellington dawned not under the cover of heavy, dark cloud, but sparkling, sunny blue skies, it was as if the rugby gods were sending a message. Coach Ian Foster and captain Sam Cane had emerged from underneath the gloom that had been enveloped upon them by all and sundry to announce, “It’s okay, we’ve got this.”

Except they hadn’t. Someone forgot to tell Andy Farrell and his excellent Ireland side. And Scott Barrett’s achilles.

In two Test matches, the All Blacks had been held scoreless in the first quarter. That needed to change, but when Nepo Laulala missed a tackle on the first play, Ireland was once again first out of the blocks.

Captain Johnny Sexton has led from the front all series, and with confidence levels high, it was an easy call for him to turn down a shot at goal and back his lineout maul.

(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

Errors dominated the All Blacks’ performance in Dunedin and things weren’t much improved here. Balls were dropped despite the absence of contact; cleanouts were inaccurate, and a loose carry from Laulala in his own 22 – which led directly to an Ireland try – showed an inherent lack of feel for the situation.

By halftime, Codie Taylor had missed four line-out throws. How was that going to provide a platform for the All Blacks to get on to the front foot and put serious heat on Ireland’s defence?

That hurts even more when your opponent is in the process of banking two tries from their lineout maul. It’s like giving your opponent 15m head start in a 100m dash; not a winning strategy.

So, for the third week in a row, the All Blacks had failed to trouble the scorer in the first quarter. But a 50:22 from David Havili led to a penalty, and with an emphatic kick-off receipt off Brodie Retallick, the first signs of cohesion and confidence were there.

It felt like a stepping stone, but Ireland engineered a three-on-two on a switch to the short side and a perfectly timed in-pass by James Lowe provided Hugo Keenan with a straight run in.

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Differences in attacking shape were apparent; the All Blacks switching from side to side, looking in vain for a hole, almost hoping to find one rather than creating one through incursions closer to the ruck.

By contrast, Ireland was far more creative, playing off 10 with higher levels of deception. And they were far more cohesive, and clinical in their execution.

More slick work put Robbie Henshaw through, clean as a whistle, and it was 22-3. Never before in their 119-year history had the All Blacks trailed by so much at halftime.

The backlash that everyone had expected in the first quarter finally came after the break when, after sustained pressure, Ardie Savea wriggled over.

(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

22-10 didn’t feel quite so bad, but in the aftermath Ofa Tu’ungafasi was removed; concussed, hit high by Bundee Aki, at a ruck close to the try-line.

Despite the nature of the injury, and Tu’ungafasi complaining to referee Wayne Barnes, neither he nor TMO Tom Foley deemed it worthy of further examination.

Given where the tolerance level has been set, and with Tu’ungafasi taken out of a game due to an action that wasn’t accidental or caused by himself, this felt inexplicable and inexcusable.

Retallick followed soon after, courtesy of a heavy head clash with Ireland defender Andrew Porter.

No two instances are ever exactly the same, but one could excuse Angus Ta’avao from wondering how the card shown to him last week by Jaco Peyper was red, and the one shown by Barnes to Porter, yellow.

The All Blacks pressed again and Akira Ioane’s irresistible burst past four Ireland defenders bought the score to 22-17. Check back in a year or so’s time to see if this was a moment that defined Ioane’s career, or it was just another false dawn.

Big moments were coming thick and fast. The All Blacks dithered on their exit and a Sexton penalty pushed the lead to 8 points. Minutes later, he then bounced one off the crossbar from halfway.

In the 60th minute Jordie Barrett expertly tidied up a loose ball, which led to Savea putting Jordan into a hole, and away on a thrilling 70m run. The All Blacks were now back to 25-22, and closing.

But a harsh penalty against Savea, who thought, like most of the crowd, the ball was out of a ruck, proved telling. Sexton went again to his lineout maul drive, and again came up with a result.

32-22 was all Ireland needed to ride the wave home, their defensive composure impressive, and their skill execution maintained throughout.

Tadgh Beirne led the way in the trenches, and when they needed to scramble from deep, it was the boots of James Lowe and Keenan, who kept Ireland well out of trouble.

At the end, a wave of emotion took hold of Ireland warrior, Peter O’Mahony, while Byrne had just enough energy in his legs to dance a jig on the sideline. Many more will have been danced since, all across Ireland.

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

It was interesting to hear in the after-match excitement, Lowe and Sexton both talk about the All Blacks as “the best team in the world”. That’s understandable in terms of their preparation and the magnitude of their win, albeit that it is patently untrue.

When they were the best team in the world, the All Blacks threw in the odd shocker; usually at the start of a season, or perhaps right at the very end, and usually not for than half a match at a time. Certainly nothing like the sustained incoherence seen across this series.

It’s no disrespect to Ireland – and indeed it’s in some part due to the pressure Ireland has imposed on them – to point out the obvious; matched or bettered physically up front, and when faced with an opposition who make fewer errors and convert scoring opportunities, the game plan that has served the All Blacks so well since 2010 is no longer fit for purpose.

There are caveats: it’s fair to say that in Dunedin and in Wellington, the All Blacks never got the rub of the card lotto. But that’s really a bigger problem that World Rugby has to sort out on another day.

Whether coach Ian Foster is the man to find and deliver the necessary answers is a question that has already been answered by the majority of fans and rugby press.

Whether he will be allowed the opportunity to be that man is a different question altogether; one that might be answered – one way or another – as early as this week.

Make no mistake; there is not a bunch of players lined up, ready to inject into this team, who can be guaranteed to turn things around. Yes, there are always quibbles here and there over selection, but by and large, contained within the squad are the vast majority of New Zealand’s best.

But this team currently lacks self-belief, and feels constrained.

Constrained by Ireland, and by their own uncertainty around their on-field discipline, and their ability to catch, pass and support in a way that was previously second nature.

Whether it be under Foster or Scott Robertson, until that happy place is found again – until the engine is re-powered and all parts are working in smooth cohesion – New Zealand can expect more days under a long, dark cloud.