If you were to look at almost any 2022 preseason ladder prediction, you’d likely find Collingwood anywhere between tenth and 18th after a 17th-place finish in 2021, the lowest in club history.
The Magpies looked set to enter a rebuild, play the young kids and phase out some of the older players before trending back up the ladder. Now, in the days before Round 19, they’re sitting fifth on the ladder with a 12-5 record and look set for September football. You’d be forgiven for being surprised and trying to figure out what’s happened in the last four months.
There have been a few factors behind the so-far successful campaign: their age demographic, their fixture and their luck.
Deceptive age demographic
Despite looking down the barrel of a rebuild, Collingwood seemed to have avoided it altogether.
Nick Daicos’s outstanding first year disguises the fact that they selected the fifth-oldest team each week on average.
Daicos, having played 17 matches so far, is one of only five players aged 22 or younger to play more than ten games for the Pies this season – the others are Beau McCreery (13), Oliver Henry (13), Jack Ginnivan (16) and Isaac Quaynor (16).
Their average team age of 25.8 years is equal to St Kilda and behind only Geelong, Richmond, West Coast and Brisbane. The age representation is benefitted by veterans Brodie Grundy and Jamie Elliott being out of the team for large chunks of the season with injury.
Fortunate fixture
The AFL fixture is determined by which third a team falls on the ladder in the previous year. For Collingwood, who finished in the final third, the opponents they play twice are
- Adelaide, Carlton and Gold Coast from the bottom third;
- Essendon from the middle third; and
- Melbourne from the top third.
These five teams averaged ten wins each and a percentage of 97.44 per cent, giving them a pretty soft draw when looking from the start of the year.
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Credit where credit is due, the Pies are currently on an eight-game win streak. Although if they wanted to challenge this year, most of these games should have been won anyway. Only three teams were outside the bottom six at the time of the game:
- Fremantle in the heavy rain the week after the Dockers were beaten by Gold Coast (also in the rain);
- Carlton, a genuinely good and hard-fought win; and
- Melbourne, the week of the Jake Melksham-Steven May scuffle.
As mentioned, the other five opponents – Hawthorn, GWS, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Adelaide – sat low on the ladder. And that’s without mentioning they were behind at three-quarter-time against the Kangaroos and Crows.
As much as every win is worth four points, the eight-game streak has come against relatively opportune opponents. Similar to Port Adelaide’s 0-5 start, the wins and losses can come in any order. The final record is 22 games.
Close-game luck
A controversial conversation. Each year there’s a team who does exceedingly well in close games – that is, those decided by fewer than 12 points – and this year it’s Collingwood, with a 7-1 record so far.
Some call it experience or training for the situation, but nevertheless the Pies were 1-5 in close games last year.
It’s rare for a club to consistently do well in these close games. If the Pies had split theirs 4-4, they’d be outside the top eight. Their percentage is the lowest of the finals contenders by a good margin, reflecting they’ve been fortunate to pick up wins throughout the year.
The run home
Collingwood have the roughest run home in the competition, coming up against Essendon, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Carlton.
Essendon are in red-hot form at the moment with 4-2 record and 114 per cent since the bye.
Port Adelaide are 8-4 after Round 5, having lost only to Geelong, Fremantle, Richmond and Melbourne.
Melbourne will be peaking coming into the finals and competing for the minor premiership.
Sydney loom as the largest threat to come into the top four with the easiest run home.
Round 23 against Carlton could very well come down to who finishes higher and maybe even decide if Collingwood make the finals.
It’s not absurd to think Collingwood could lose three or four games down this stretch, which ultimately leaves them in the bottom rung of the eight. That would be a remarkable jump from 17th, but still hasn’t achieved a whole lot when it comes to the dynamic of the club.
Michael
Guest
Told you Pies match up well against Dees. 7 of the last 8 and May was even playing!
Macca
Roar Rookie
"Howe, Pendlebury and Sidey…and all clearly being carried in the side"The point is that these older players are not "being carried" but in fact doing the carrying.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Laughing at someone with mental health issues Peter? Oddly enough I didn't actually compare first year wing/HBF Williamson to Moore, let alone suggest he was better. I compared C Curnow to Moore and simply asked why Carlton's players were deemed untried/unproven youngsters but Collingwood's players weren't viewed the same.
wyalurch
Roar Rookie
Spot on Oracle. I'll never forget Billy Pickens taking flyers - if not outright screamers - week in, week out at Victoria Park. Or the TV replays from Glenferrie Road, where Peter Knights would soar over packs time and again, snatching the ball clean out of the air. Two truly great markers and truly great centre half backs. Two true greats. RIP Bill Pickens.
Macca
Roar Rookie
“False, other than Geelong, can’t think of a single modern team who’s premiership window was longer than 3-4 years” For a start your are assuming a premiership window opens as soon as a list rebuild is done which is false. Carlton have finished their rebuild but a re not yet in their premiership window but if we look at it ; Hawthorn won a premiership in 2008 , 2013, 2014 & 2015 and finished 3rd in 2016 so that’s 8 years Lions finished 3rd in 1999 and 2nd in 2004 which is 6 years. Bulldogs won a premiership in 2016 and made a grand final in 2021 but they are a weird team “Majority means most, more than half. Average list age is 25. Currently have only 4 players over 30.” ” their current side and their best 10 players ” Side is different to list” Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Howe, Cox, Elliott, Michochek, Hoskin- Elliott, Adams, Crisp and Cameron will all 32 or older in 5 years, throw in Grundy & Madgen (currently not in the “side”), the prospect the injury cursed Moore (who will be 31) might go a bit earlier and De Goey will be traded at the end of this yeaar and you quickly get your majority.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Found it, well I assume this was it: “If we Compare De Goey to Cunginham who was drafted a year later; De Goey – 45 games ave 18.2 disposals, 4.3 marks, 1 goal, 3 tackles Cuningham 9 games ave 14 disposals, 3.8 marks, 0.8 goals, 4.8 tackles If we compare Moore to Curnow who again was drafted a year later Moore – 40 games 9.9 disposals, 5.8 marks, 1.4 goals 1.9 tackles Curnow – 20 games 13.6 disposals, 5.8 marks, 0.7 goals, 2.6 tackles If we compare Maynard to Williamson who was drafted 2 years later Maynard 44 games 17.4 disposals, 4.8 marks, 0.3 goals, 3.1 tackles Williamson 10 games 12.6 disposals, 3.3 marks, 0.1 goals 2.5 tackles I am not really sure why you thinks that these players are quality young players who will naturally improve but the blues players are unproven young talent.” So not comparing Williamson with Moore but Curnow with Moore. Not saying De Goey, Maynard and Moore were poor players. “You once, in response, told me “opinions are just opinions and can’t be right or wrong”. Given that I regularly say the exact opposite I doubt you are correct on this just as you weren’t correct on your previous accusation. Opinions aren’t facts, but opinions can certainly be wrong.
Jimmy
Guest
Something wrong with your computer champ? Can't use Google? Forget your own words? To be more specific, and you are free to look all this up yourself with your own internet machine, in response to Pete saying Moore and degoey were great young players you responded, at length, saying they were poor players and that a series of carlton young players were already better. Williamson was one of those players. I have asked you many times, over the years to justify that statement. You once, in response, told me "opinions are just opinions and can't be right or wrong".
Macca
Roar Rookie
"Teams can rebuild in 3.: Yes but when they do they don't plan to be doing it again in 5 years. If Collingwood have finished their rebuild as Peter suggests they should have a team that in the most part is going to be together for at least the next 5 years - however the majority of their current side and their best 10 players will be retired inside 5 years which points to a current rebuild that is far from complete.
Michael
Guest
Reckon you can get rid of the ‘Close- game luck’ section.
Jimmy
Guest
What's this 5 years stuff? Not sure what "5 years" has to do with anything. Teams can rebuild in 3. Collingwood are currently top 4. They might be contenders in the next 3 years and I am sorry that hurts your feelings, but I imagine they're going to try. To say that Collingwood supporters should somehow be sad that their team is good again after the trials of the last 2 years with COVID and stuff is weird and bitter. Reckon we need to bury the hatchet here, this is all pretty silly
Macca
Roar Rookie
Jimmy - Can you please post the quote in context from that Tim lane article where I said that the yet to debut wingman/half back flanker was better than CHB Moore?
Jimmy
Guest
Not at all Macca. What that speaks to is you continuously embarrassing yourself on Roar. Your behaviour on the Time Lane article thread is some of the finest human folly i've ever witnessed and it stuck in my mind. I returned to that thread over and over to challenge you to back up your words and you never did.
Jasper
Guest
Bianco Henry Macrae Ruscoe McCreery Ginnivan Daicos That looks like 7 to me. I thought you'd done your research, Jakson?
Jasper
Guest
Jakson, mate, with all due respect, percentage is not the best indication of a team's performance. Wins are.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
Peter Hudson, Peter Knights & Leigh Matthews??
Chris
Guest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_hJm7DdyoE He was a darn fair player and copped more head high tackles than anyone in that Collingwood team. He played the ball and represenetd the true black and white tradition. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUWYFUYn9pc An unsung hero.
Chris
Guest
By the way, the three goals mentioned above were kicked in Billy Picken's VFL debut match against Carlton. They were kicked at the social club end if my memory doesn't fail me.
Chris
Guest
Collingwood are as good as the fight they put up against taller opponents and more credentialled teams. Undeniably, that is the Magpie spirit where flashy flankers are pitted against the tall timber and try to save the day. The pluckiness that is Collingwood teaches us a fundamental lesson in life-Never say die; Never give up; Give it your all. We are loved by all and sundry because of our underdog mentality! Let's face it the majority of people in the world are working class and lower middle class upstarts. That is how Collingwood came into being. An upstart club that was on good terms with Carlton in its inception and need I say anything about look how things have turned out.
Chris
Guest
All this speculative nonsense counts for nothing. What matters is that Collingwood should endeavour to win the next five games and play Geelong at the MCG in the first week of finals. That will guarantee their presence in Melbourne for the remainder of the finals campaign whether that be good or bad. I have to mention two of my all-time favourite Collingwood players with whom I grew up learning about our great code. I loved watching Con Britt in the Reserves in the prelude to the main fixture in the middle sxities. He was always Collingwood's best on ground and then got belatedly promoted to the Seniors. The selection committee erred in not including him in the 1966 Grand Final team. They opted for John Henderson who had a shocker and we lost by a point. He would have done well with Ricky Watt and we would have got home in that one. As for Billy Picken, I remember him playing against the old enemy (Carlton) at Vic Park and taking some screamers which helped him kick three goals. He also shined in John Greening's comeback game against Richmond at the MCG where he took that memorable mark at the Punt Road end from which he goaled (I was sitting behind the goal umpire). Thanks for the memories lads and I will always love you both to the day I die because you represented the real Collingwood spirit that this current team is displaying. Lads please win for them both tomorrow at the G where they both played some of their finest and most memorable football. RIP gentlemen :crying:
Opps74
Roar Rookie
In fairness to the pies, the matter is they have won these games and been mostly competitive in their losses...tigers have lost 6 or 7 in less than a few goals