South Africa are physical and will rain box-kicks down on you all game. It’s the same game plan that won them the 2019 World Cup.
But muscling-up upfront and defusing their aerial bombardment is only half of the job. The Wallabies must have one eye on neutralising the Springboks’ gameplan and the another on applying their own.
Running rugby is the Wallabies’ blueprint and in all the games except the loss in San Juan, they have picked their way through defences and put themselves in positions to score points. Keeping the Boks in play, preventing them from setting their meandering pace of set-piece, two phases if nothing happens kick and then pounce on the chaos caused, is vital.
They are a team who likes playing without the ball, so the Wallabies should exit their own half but look to keep the ball in play. This will force the Springboks to make choices, increasing their margin for error.
(Photo by Jono Searle/Getty Images)
The Springbok gameplan works because they are the biggest in the yard and everyone knows exactly what to do. Matching their physicality is essential but Dave Rennie’s men are fitter, faster, and should look to keep-up the tempo.
By keeping the ball in play, Rennie’s men can prevent tactical water breaks, staunching the communication from coach Jacques Nienaber from reaching the players. The Springboks will fatigue, providing lapses in decision making and chinks in the Springbok defence.
Fatigue set in quickly for Springbok stalwart Duane Vermeulen at Ellis Park and there were early replacements for the South African front row. Richie Mo’unga kept the ball in play brilliantly and the All Blacks played phase after phase, not necessarily going forward but it kept the game at their pace. Clinical cleanouts and quick ruck times also blunted the Boks’ rush defence.
The green wall that is South Africa’s defence is an almost perfect machine, with a rush and push that invites teams to go wide only for them to realise they’ve run out of room and depth. If you can’t around it, you can go through it and perhaps over it.
In 2021 the Wallabies found a way to punch through the defence, realising an over ambitious shooter leaves a split second to beat the fold. This was the case in the first try of the first test. Faf de Klerk missed a tackle on Samu Kerevi and Kerevi could then put Andrew Kellaway in the corner.
The Wallabies then found a second way through with a pass inside exposing the rush instinct and turning that second of disjointed play into a gap. This happened when front foot ball allowed Tom Banks to flick a pass inside sending Marika Koroibete through a half-hole.
Turning around the Boks rush defence with kicks over the top or along the ground will at least put them in two minds and force their lumbering forwards to backpedal if only a few metres.
Teams spend more energy on defence than they do attack, more energy retreating than advancing and make mistakes when fatigued.
None of this will matter if the Wallabies’ forwards don’t do the business upfront and the back three diffuse the highball. But the Wallabies must implement and follow their gameplan: exit their half with a long kick, be clinical on attack, cherish possession, and don’t piggyback the Boks down the field with ill-discipline.
This year the Wallabies have started slow and finished fast, scoring most of their points later in the the game. A fast start and a ruthless middle should allow for an improved Wallabies to implement their blueprint.
John Ferguson
Expert
Hey Winston, it was a hell of a test match. Big respect for your humility.
Just call me Campo
Roar Rookie
hahahaha
WINSTON
Roar Rookie
I'm here early to eat humble pie. Wallabies whipping the boks
John Ferguson
Expert
It's all going down in a few miniutes! Let's see how the teams measure up!
John Ferguson
Expert
Cheers Peter, Perhaps what I am taking as water breaks are in fact "injury breaks" because South Africa seem to use protocol to slow the play down. This has been cited several times, especially through the Lions tour last year.
John Ferguson
Expert
Hey Biltong, cheers for the comment. I think statistics like that show they play with the ball, e.g. a lot of mauling and kick recovery. But I think a majority of Pundits' analysis when the say "play without the ball" is indicating at the philosophy of the Bok's gameplan which is to give the ball away. And running is not their number one tactic. Cheers
John Ferguson
Expert
That will definitely be a McReight and co job, but it's about not running at or near the threats of Marx and Am.
John Ferguson
Expert
Cheers Winston, we shall see!
Lara
Guest
The Boks need a win. The ABs lost would have hurt their ego big time. That said, the Boks won’t play cute this time n will play their traditional game, until they have the game in hand . The Wallabies will need to absorb that first half n stay close…..no silly penalty within kicking range, make them earn the points n wait for the Boks to be frustrated. The Wallabies need to play smart, don’t force the pass , nail those early tackles , hold up in set pieces n absorb the highballs n with that much ball to play with …..pick your time to strike…..time step up.
Raghead
Guest
These Wallabies will need a gastroenterologist to operate on them after this match. With absolutely no chance of a contest, will leave it to you masochists to witness. I’d rather chew on glass than have my ears grated by Sean Maloney’s idiotic crescendos. Record Score Saffas !!
Bobby
Roar Rookie
Spot on Fergo ! Wallabies to defend box kicks and quickly deliver to outside backs. Boks need to be run off their feet. It will be interesting. Wallabies by 12.
Ad-O
Guest
I wouldn't get too upset about the perception. Australia likes to think of itself as some sort of flair team but outside of a few historical Wallaby sides this has never been the case. In fact our WC winning teams were based on a stifling defence imported from Rugby League. The Boks play common sense Rugby for winning high stakes test matches. They realise their traditional strengths and leverage them successfully. I would love the Wallabies to play like the Springboks. Unfortunately we think we're France just without the set piece, kicking game, ball skills or flair.
Ad-O
Guest
Rugby's problem is fewer and fewer people in the heartland care. Got to secure your base before you reach across the aisle.
Biltong
Guest
Hi pm, yes, in the Boks half it is all about kicking for territory, andwith that I don't really have an issue, my issue have always been not kicking those balls into the opposition 22, we should have more faith with our players such as Mapimpi, Am, Kolbe, Willemse etc to finish the job.
Peter
Guest
Not the Boks that call for water breaks. It is a bizarre WR protocol. Very annoying.
pm
Roar Rookie
"Many believe South Africa doesn’t want to play with the ball and prefer that the opposition play with possession, yet last year and this year so fat they have had an average possession of 55% possession over the two seasons." I wonder if that 55% is just cause they are good at it though, Biltong. If a team like Australia, Scotland or New Zealand, with less dominant forwards or a poorer kicking game played the same style, they could well only manage 30ish% i would guess. Worth mentioning too: you also have the blitz defense plus jackals like Marx, even Kitshoff, Smith, even D'Allende, that make the other team wary and panicked ball in hand. Don't you too, have the impression it really is all about kicking for territory and pressure and then the quick efficient strike, for the Boks? To me it is not something to criticise anyway , it's just a team playing to its strengths
JC
Roar Rookie
Well-argued piece, JF. The Wallabies must go forward before they go wide — and prompt, accurate clean-out please! Good luck Wallabies.
Biltong
Guest
Many believe South Africa doesn't want to play with the ball and prefer that the opposition play with possession, yet last year and this year so fat they have had an average possession of 55% possession over the two seasons. There is also the narrative that we kick possession away as our main go to tactic. Again, not entirely correct and a lazy way of thinking. Whilst they do kick unnecessarily into the Opposition 22 when they should manage the game better and attack more by building phase play (something I have been harping on forver) their tactics to exit their red zone is playing the numbers and not wanting to risk running from their 22. Argentina lost the first test vs the Wallabies for this very reason, and you could attribute a number of losses for Australia by not exiting their 22 smartly. Now it needs to be understood that teams have their own tactics that they play to. But looking at SA as a team not playing with possession is incorrect, if that was the case they would have much less than 50% possession statistically over the last two seasons. It is true the Boks aren't playing to their potential, they have a very dangerous backline with players such as Am, Mapimpi, Kolbe, Willemse etc. If there must be a criticism of the Bok tactics, it should be that.
Peter Witts
Guest
Excellent analysis. Question is, who wins the breakdown when the big Max is on the field? The wallabies need their own bomb squad - to protect the breakdown. Mid field defensive breakdown penalties will not only slow and disrupt attack, they will give SA their golden ticket - points accumulation. Fraser and friends, over to you.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Good read, John. Thanks