There’s only one round left in the race for the NRL finals and the ladder logjam in the bottom half of the eight means the playoff teams are all but certainly locked in, positioning is till up for grabs.
Brisbane’s second successive heavy defeat, coupled with Canberra’s 48-6 win over Manly, means the now ninth-placed Broncos need to overcome a 43-point differential if they both win in the final round or hope the Raiders are upset by the last-placed Wests Tigers at Leichhardt Oval in Sunday’s last match of the season.
The Broncos, who travel to Kogarah to take on St George Illawarra on Saturday night, could join Souths on 30 competition points if they win and the Bunnies lose to the Roosters but they are no chance of bridging a 166-point differential.
Premiers Penrith, who celebrated the minor premiership on Friday in beating the Warriors, are the only team locked into their position.
Jarome Luai (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Cronulla can seal second if they win in Newcastle on Sunday after they beat the Bulldogs in Round 24 and Cowboys lost to the Rabbitohs.
North Queensland could slip to fourth if they lose to Penrith on Saturday in Townsville and the Storm knock off Parramatta in what is effectively a battle for the last top-four berth.
The run home for each team
1. Penrith (1st, 42 points, +336 differential)
Run home: Rd 25 Cowboys (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 1st. They are the minor premiers and deservedly so.
Predicted finish: 1st. Locked in.
2. Cronulla (36pts, +187)
Run home: Rd 25 Knights (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 2-3. They will slip a spot if the Cowboys beat Penrith and they lose to the Knights.
Predicted finish: 2nd. All they have to do is beat the Knights.
3. North Queensland (34pts, +242)
Run home: Rd 25 Panthers (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 2-4. The Cowboys can leapfrog Cronulla but could lose third spot if the Storm win over Parra and they go down to Penrith.
Predicted finish: 3rd. With the minor premiership wrapped up, Penrith will probably rest a few stars in the final round, opening the door for the Cowboys to clinch second.
(Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
4. Melbourne (32pts, +255)
Run home: Rd 25 Eels (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 3-6.
Predicted finish: 4th. They are in slightly better form than Parramatta for Thursday night’s blockbuster whiech will decide who gets the final top-four berth. They could drop to sixth if they lose and the Roosters beat Souths. This will be their lowest regular-season placing since 2015 – that’s how successful the Storm machine has been in recent years.
5. Parramatta (32pts, +111)
Run home: Rd 25 Storm (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 4-6. If they win, they finish fourth. If they lose, the Roosters or Rabbitohs will take fifth from them.
Predicted finish: 6th. They are likely to be doing it the hard way in the finals from the bottom half of the bracket.
6. Sydney (30pts, +191)
Run home: Rd 25 Rabbitohs (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 5-7. They can’t get a top-four berth anymore after Parra won in Round 24. If they beat Souths, they can claim fifth if Parra lose to Melbourne otherwise they will remain sixth even if they knock over the Bunnies. A loss will mean they will slip to seventh.
Predicted finish: 5th. The final round against the Rabbitohs at the new Allianz Stadium opening match will be huge because even though it doesn’t mean a top-four berth to the winner, it will mean hosting rights in week one of the sudden-death first round.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
7. South Sydney (30pts, +144)
Run home: Rd 25 Roosters (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 5-7.
Predicted finish: 7th. They could claim fifth from Parramatta if the Storm win and the Rabbitohs also get up. If they lose, Canberra can’t catch them as they have a 123-point differential advantage.
8. Canberra (28pts, 17)
Run home: Rd 25 Tigers (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 8-9.
Predicted finish: 8th. The Green Machine just have to beat the Wests Tigers and they will know by Sunday how Brisbane have gone. The Broncos have to win by more than 43 to bring for and against into the equation.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
9. Brisbane (28pts, -26)
Run home: Rd 25 Dragons (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 8-9.
Predicted finish: 9th. Their season was on the line against Parra and they fell to pieces. They don’t deserve to make the finals but they can do so if they beat the Dragons by a huge score which is 43 points or more greater than Canberra’s win over the Tigers. Or they can qualify if they win and the Raiders lose. Neither scenario is likely.
10. St George Illawarra (24pts, -110)
Run home: Rd 25 Broncos (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 10th. Locked in.
Predicted finish: 10th. With a relatively soft draw to finish the season, the Dragons should have been challenging for a playoff spot but will now finish 10th no matter what after squeaking past the Tigers.
11. Manly (20pts, -104)
Run home: Rd 25 Bulldogs (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 11th. Locked in.
Predicted finish: 11th. Six straight losses and the Sea Eagles are petering out with no pride in their jersey.
12. Canterbury (14pts, -193)
Run home: Rd 25 Sea Eagles (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 12-14
Predicted finish: 12th. Their second-half season form under interim coach Mick Potter had been a breath of fresh air, before three straight losses. You’d back them to beat Manly in the final round.
13. Newcastle (14pts, -268)
Run home: Rd 25 Sharks (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 12-15
Predicted finish: 14th. They have not beaten any of the top-eight sides all year and are unlikely to rise any higher than their current predicament with an upset over Cronulla. They actually went up a spot because their Round 24 loss wasn’t as bad as the Warriors.
13. New Zealand (14pts, -291)
Run home: Rd 25 Titans (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 12-14
Predicted finish: 15th. A loss to the Titans will mean they drop another spot.
15. Gold Coast (12pts, -206)
Run home: Rd 25 Warriors (A).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 12-16.
Predicted finish: 13th. Avoiding the spoon and the sack are the two main missions for Justin Holbrook. They have all but avoided the spoon with their win Newcastle and should account for the Warriors to rise to 13th but that may not be enough to save the coach’s skin.
16. Wests (10pts, -281)
Run home: Rd 25 Raiders (H).
Best-worst mathematical case scenario: 15-16
Predicted finish: 16th. Caretaker coach Brett Kimmorley needs to jag a huge win over the Raiders and hope the Titans get flogged in Auckland to avoid finishing last. That won’t be happening and the wooden spoon will be housed at Concord after Round 25.
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Paul Suttor
Expert
dash darn it
mushi
Roar Guru
I think there's an error on the F/A for raiders
Womblat
Guest
Yep, I follow neither, but this game is gonna be a season changer for a stack of people. And both of them are red hot, should be a cracker. Your boss will understand I reckon.
Bonza
Roar Rookie
Bunnies vs Chooks, last round, 1st game at new stadium, lots on the line. My boss's birthday party the same night, can't see myself making it.
Tim J
Roar Rookie
Lucky I am not a Warriors supporter Pistol, otherwise I would be be madder than normal.. :laughing: :thumbup:
Pistol
Roar Rookie
and what part of Warriors history gives you confidence in this Tim the MadKiwi :laughing:
Pistol
Roar Rookie
Even if they do they still wont achieve s**t :laughing:
Birthday Suit
Roar Rookie
At first I thought it was just a mistake, but now that it’s clear that updating an old article and then reposting is new thing on The Roar. I just want to say it is honestly terrible. I get why you’d want to update an ‘each team’s run home’ or ‘wallabies team news’ but then you need to make it clear that it’s an update rather than a new article and start a new comment section. This website is primarily driven by a phenomenal and active community and we don’t want be looking at comments from early July when reading article about ‘each team’s run home’. It honestly completely defeats the purpose of the comment section which is (for better or worse) the life-blood of The Roar. Just read the comments on the articles and see how many people have accidentally replied to a comment that is multiple weeks old. For me it’s completely antithetical to what made love this website.
Tim J
Roar Rookie
Dwayne, that sounds like Warriors supporters to a tea.. :silly:
Tim J
Roar Rookie
And here I was hoping that you could translate for me Tony.. :laughing: :thumbup:
Tim J
Roar Rookie
Spot on Paul, as the draw was already done! The logistics would have made no sense, next season things will be back on track for the Warriors.. :thumbup:
Tim J
Roar Rookie
Thank you for a great insightful article Paul, much appreciated. I favour the Rabbits to get through, and the Storm will make it also! Tigers I favour for the much prized wooden spoon :silly: The closest game coming will be the Panthers vs Warriors, Panthers by 20!
Rob
Guest
Mate I thought you were against any criticism of officials and players due to saying nasty things causing mental health. They deemed it accidental but you want his fingers removed? Then you suggest Cleary’s a nice boy, Salmon’s foot was an accident, Kikau doesn’t really shoulder anyone? What’s with the Dearden thing???? If you want a conspiracy ask why 6 again saw a massive blow out in scores and the Panthers almost being unbeatable and also receiving the most penalties?
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
And if the Roosters lose to the Bunnies the Raiders could be playing for a spot in the 8 in the final match of the minor round against the Tigers at Leichardt
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
That final match is the broadcaster's dream. Chooks to win for the 8 and Rabbits for the 4.
Hondo
Roar Rookie
Bu;;dogs also thrashed Parramatta a few weeks ago
steveng
Roar Rookie
The Bunnies will be 4th as we need to really win all, the Cows draw is our only chance as the Sharks have it really easy, its a lottery and really exciting of how good the Bunnies are for the finals.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Raiders will need to rely on the Roosters to lose two out of their remaining games against the Tigers, Storm and Rabbitohs. Possible but they've been playing well. As I've said above could well come down to their final match of the minor round against the Bunnies which will be an early "final" for the Chooks.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
This is all easy to say in hindsight. I could say the same thing about the Raiders losses to the Warriors and the Dragons which were influenced by poor ref decisions in the final seconds. Win those two and they could have ended on 16 wins which would have been more than enough to make the finals.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Could come down to the Roosters needing to beat the Rabbitohs at the new stadium in the final round if they lose away to the Storm. And their record against them lately hasn't been great, If the Roosters do beat the Bunnies it won't matter if the Raiders beat all 3 of their opponents and finish with 14 wins due to their poor for and against.