ANALYSIS: How Wallabies' big body theory panned out at Marvel, and what to do with Pete Samu after stunner

“In olden days, a glimpse of stocking, was looked at something shocking. Now, Heaven knows! Anything goes!” Those words come from a Frank Sinatra ‘toon’ from the golden age of crooning. It applies perfectly to the performance of referee Mathieu Raynal on a vibrant Thursday night in Melbourne.

There is no doubt that the Frenchman did his level best to nudge Kiwi Ben O’Keeffe out of the spotlight, and usurp his centre-stage performance in the previous round at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.

While O’Keeffe ascended to the dizzy heights of 27 penalties in total, Raynal only reached a mere 24, but O’Keeffe’s three yellows cards were trumped by Raynal’s four in Melbourne. The New Zealander awarded 14 penalties at the breakdown, the Frenchman 16. And M. Raynal had the very literal last laugh, leaving his most controversial decision to the dying embers of the game.

All of this will come as no great surprise to seasoned observers of European rugby. Raynal has been involved in a number of disputatious matches, most recently the Six Nations game between England and Ireland at Twickenham back in March.

He sent England second row Charlie Ewels off the field for good after only two minutes of the match, and his officiating of the scrum was a bone of contention throughout. World Rugby actually apologised to the IRFU for it in the aftermath.

At Twickenham it was the scrum which was a shambles, in Melbourne ‘anything goes’ was applied to the breakdown. It was a great pity that the game was again dominated by the style of refereeing in a specific area of the game. Both sides won six turnovers, or penalties around the breakdown out of a total of 60 rucks (for the Wallabies), and 62 (for the All Blacks). 10% represents an extremely high rate of attrition for ruck ball in the modern game.

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In the gaps in between the chaos, there was some rugby played. In both areas of selection where there were colossal Australian unknowns before the match – in the Wallabies midfield at 9-10-12, and their spinal cord from 2-8-9-10-15 – there were plenty of success stories at the optimistically-named Marvel Stadium.

Bernard Foley did a more than passable rehearsal of Quade Cooper in 2021, kicking all of his goals and providing assists for two tries by Andrew Kellaway in the second period. The Waratahs midfield was solid and Kellaway ably filled Reece Hodge’s big boots at full-back.

There were more positives up front, where Australia took advantage of a big shove in the back from Raynal’s officiating to win six turnovers in contact, and all but equal their entire output from the rest of the Rugby Championship up to round four.

The wins were spread outside the number 7 spot, and that is probably a good thing for the development of Australian rugby moving forward. Centre Lalakai Foketi had three pilfers, and the two back row Robs – Leota and Valetini – had one apiece. Valetini and Foketi also shared a choke tackle turnover to bring their output up to 3.5 and 1.5 steals respectively. Lord Laurie will be happy with those figures.

It was not however, as clearcut a situation as Stan Sport’s analyst Justin Harrison suggested immediately after the match. He asked Dave Rennie the following question, somewhat hopefully, just after proceedings had ended:

“[Pete] Samu, Leota and Valetini. That back row combination was outstanding in the way that they combined to impose themselves physically in the game. Is that something you wanted to see from them?”

The Wallaby head coach shaped an answer in the affirmative.

“Yeah, I thought Pete Samu again was outstanding. We talked about how he’s been one of our best players off the bench, and he had a massive game tonight on both sides of the ball. I’m really proud of him.”

Pete Samu was indeed outstanding on attack. He ran eight times for 74 metres with six tackle busts or clean breaks, and confirmed the lasting Super Rugby impression that he is perhaps the most lethal ball-handling loose forward in the wide channels since ex-All Blacks skipper Kieran Read.

I doubt any other back-rower on either side could have made that score, even Akira Ioane, who was still trying desperately to prevent the touch-down at the finish of the play.

Games refereed by Raynal at this level tend to be decided by the distribution of penalties at the breakdown, where the Frenchman is weighted so heavily towards the defensive side that he is rugby’s equivalent of a crown-green bowl. Ben O’Keeffe may be most people’s idea of laissez-faire at the breakdown, but he is positively monastic in comparison to Raynal’s libertine:

The penalty awards were equally divided, eight apiece to the Wallabies and All Blacks, but Australia also attracted two yellow cards in the space of one event on Tom Wright and Darcy Swain. Ultimately, the Wallabies came out on the negative side of the turnover slate despite Justin Harrison’s assertion.

Raynal established the ‘anything goes’ principle at the post-tackle as early as the 13^th minute of the game:

Will Jordan clearly has his hands on the ground in front of the ball before he drags them back on to the pill, and this was one aspect of defensive illegality that Ben O’fKeefe did police in Sydney. But Raynal rewards the action with a penalty nonetheless.

Leota paid the All Blacks back in kind shortly afterwards:

Once again, hands ahead of the ball on the turf first, but the defensive player is still rewarded with a steal. It was one of two turnovers Australia achieved on the deck in the first two phases of the match, up until the arrival of Fraser McReight in the 51^st minute. The other came from inside centre Foketi just after half-time:

From the viewpoint of the Australian ‘big body’ theory which had dominated Wallaby selection in the back five of the pack, the match fell into three distinct parts:

In the first part, up until Leota’s replacement by Darcy Swain in the 26^th minute, the All Blacks enjoyed a slight edge in turnovers and turnover penalties with both starting back rows on the field.

In the second phase, with a second row (Swain) subbing on for blind-side flanker Leota, New Zealand moved further ahead of their opponents with a quick-fire rat-tat-tat of counter-rucking:

Marika Koroibete is chased down by Jordan on the counter, and Samisoni Taukei’aho goes in for the pilfer only to be driven off his feet by Tyrel Lomax behind him. There are three Kiwis lying on the floor but they are still rewarded with a turnover penalty.

On this occasion the counter-ruck is a completely legitimate win for the men in black, with three New Zealanders pushing three Wallabies off the ball, straight up. Taukei’aho then added the finishing touches to New Zealand’s second try of the game on the next play:

In the first two phases, Australia also began to fly the tell-tale red flags of over-competition at the breakdown, which were to cost them dearly in the 35^th minute:

There are three Wallabies looking to splinter the New Zealand ruck with a mixture of side entries, playing off their feet and obstructing number 9 Aaron Smith. It resulted in that rare bird in the Raynal aviary, a penalty to the attack at the ruck.

The climax arrived just before half-time: 

Tom Wright was yellow-carded for failing to roll away from the tackle in the first instance, but on review a far more dangerous illegality was discovered by the TMO, Welshman Ben Whitehouse:

Ex-Scotland international Jim Hamilton knows a thing or two about second row play, and as he pointed out on Twitter, Swain should have seen red for this reckless attack on Quinn Tupaea’s left leg. It would be a good time for the young Brumbies second row to go away and reassess his career. He has the ability to play Test-match footy, but it is not framed by the right temperament or discipline at present.

Australia lost the turnover battle by seven to four up until McReight’s arrival with half an hour to play, then they proceeded to win the last period of the match by four turnovers to one. The young Queenslander was able to ramp up the breakdown pressure of defence and the back row as a unit looked more balanced on attack than at any other time in the match. Just before Samu’s spectacular try down the left edge, the situation looked like this:

Kieran Read would be feeling the warm glow of nostalgia if he could see this picture, because it would remind him of the halcyon days of the All Blacks, with he and Jerome Kaino playing wide on either edge, and Richie McCaw shuttling between them, doing the dog work in midfield.

Meanwhile Foketi came of age on defence in the final quarter, winning two more turnovers, the second of which should really have sewn up the victory for Australia:

The Waratahs number 12 starts off his feet in that second example, gets back on them again before losing his footing for a second time. He is not supporting his own bodyweight, but who cares? Anything goes.

Summary

The emotional cards were all stacked in Australia’s favour before the match. Coming on the back of a bad loss to South Africa in Sydney, the Wallabies were in question, perched on the cliff edge and looking down into the abyss. A serious reaction was demanded of them.

That boomerang of response came with the advance on the haka, all the way from the Australian 40m line to halfway, and the steely glint in the eyes of James Slipper and Allan Alaalatoa after it subsided. Rules be damned, it was always going to be that kind of match with Mathieu Raynal in charge. The breakdown was pure carnage, and anything did indeed go.

The problem for Dave Rennie is that he cannot rely on that desperate emotional edge to be there, game in and game out. That feeling depends mostly on circumstances. Consistency, and ‘standard of performance’ plants its flag further inland, in a deeper balance between physical, emotional and technical resources.

Eden Park will be a very different place in just over one week’s time, and it will be the All Blacks who will feel they have lost a game they actually won. They will probably sense they owe themselves, their coaches and their supporters a performance. Not many New Zealand teams of recent vintage blow an 18-point lead and spurn the kind of clear scoring chances afforded to Hoskins Sotutu (in the first half) and Rieko Ioane (in the second) and still escape with a ‘W’ in the ledger. The All Blacks will be out to prove a point.

If Rennie and his coaches pick a similar starting back five, and the same midfield in Auckland we are likely to see a much truer picture of the promise those combinations hold for the World Cup. Take away the raw emotion, and the underlying physical and technical reality will make itself known.

Samu showed he deserves to be a starter in the back-row, but can he really manage number 7 consistently? Or is he better equipped to do a job on the opposite side, with either McReight recalled or Charlie Gamble brought in, when the Tahs’ man becomes eligible for selection?

Swain has been cited and if he escapes a ban is it time for him to be rested anyway, and invited to consider what kind of player he really wants to be at international level? The big body theory made a loud bang in Melbourne, but its impact had as many negative impacts as positive ones. Time, and the prospect of a game at the citadel of New Zealand rugby, will tell.