Wallabies' inconsistency might be best addressed by regular squad rotation

By Rhys Bosley / Roar Pro

I have spent my Sunday like most diehard Aussie rugby fans, darkly mulling over the Wallabies’ 40-14 flogging at Eden Park.

Three events stick in my mind the most.

The first was Jed Holloway’s excellent linebreak in the first minute of the game, where he ran an excellent line to avoid a tackle while the other forwards in his pod kept the other defenders occupied. An improved running game from the forwards was evident in this game and shouldn’t go unrecognised, even if silly mistakes like Holloway’s subsequent yellow card prevented it from translating into points.

The second was Tom Wright’s tap and go without support followed by a grubber to the All Blacks, giving up a great attacking opportunity and resulting in an All Blacks counter-attack and a try by Will Jorden at the other end. Aside from Wright’s poor decision, the thing that stuck in my mind was the sight of Andrew Kellaway jogging across the park in cover defence, then being nowhere near Jordan to attempt the tackle.

The third event was Marika Koroibete’s mistake in putting his foot on the line when he had a clear run to the line from good handling by the Wallabies locks, Jed Holloway and Caderyn Neville.

Today I felt disappointed and angry about the Wallabies’ many mistakes, those by the outside backs in particular led to up to a 21-point difference in scores. But then I reminded myself that these men are the ones who have had to front up for one of the most physical contests of any sport in the world, not me, and became more philosophical.

I have asked myself: “why would such good players make such silly mistakes?”

Holloway, Wright, Kellaway, Koroibete have all played excellent rugby this year and all come across as highly committed.

Marika Koroibete (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)

Reflecting on all the talk of inconsistency in Wallabies performances at the moment, it occurred to me that every other team in The Rugby Championship has faced the same issue. Perhaps professional rugby has just reached a point where physical and mental high performance is being pushed beyond a limit that is sustainable on a weekly basis?

This begs the question, if our best team cannot back up a performance the next week, would our second best team do better? So, I compiled a starting 15 list of the squad members who were not selected to start in the second Bledisloe Cup match.

1.Angus Bell, 2. Folau Fainga’a, 3. Pone Fa’amausili, 4. Cadeyrn Neville, 5. Nick Frost, 6. Langi Gleeson, 7. Fraser McReight. 8. Harry Wilson, 9. Nic White (c), 10. Noah Lolesio, 11. Jock Campbell, 12. Reece Hodge. 13. Jordan Petaia, 14. Suliasi Vunivalu 15. Kurtley Beale

Lachlan Lonergan and Tate McDermott were also available.

Does that look like a completely non-credible starting team to others? Because it doesn’t to me. I wonder whether starting the fresh legs and fresh minds who would be dead keen, would outweigh the benefits of selecting first-pick players and building on the previous week’s performance?

The latter is a strategy which clearly isn’t working, not just for the Wallabies either, so is there really anything to lose by trying?

The upcoming European tour has games against Scotland, France, Italy, Ireland and Wales, in that order, so the “easier” games will be first, third and fifth. With the pressure to bank wins from fans and the media, there is going to be the temptation for Rennie to play his best players against the weaker opponents.

I don’t care very much about Rennie’s win ratio. I can’t see anything that he is doing glaringly wrong as a coach that suggests that he is not doing the best any coach could, in an incredibly competitive international rugby environment.

Rather than taking a low-risk approach to bank a few wins, I would rather see Rennie take selection risks that maximise the Wallabies’ odds of winning all these games, even if that risks a more dramatic downside if things go wrong.

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Because in reality, winning all their games is what the Wallabies must do to have a chance of winning the World Cup next year.

If increasing squad rotations or a variation on that theme is part of the solution to winning all of the European games, it would need to be well explained to restless fans and media, who would greatly assist by demonstrating maturity and understanding about why selections are being changed more regularly.

It is less than a year now until the World Cup and we all know that when they play well the Wallabies can beat anybody. Our job is just to be as supportive as possible while they take the journey.

The Crowd Says:

2022-09-29T23:23:41+00:00

Lachie Mark

Roar Rookie


Agreed - Rennie just needs to shoot his shot and be brave with selections. Give Vunivalu a run in Koroibete's absence, get Hooper coming off the bench like a mad duracell bunny, hand the best Australian Super Rugby leader (AAA) the captaincy, and let the boys play!

2022-09-29T21:51:46+00:00

Passit2me

Roar Rookie


Cheers Jeff, had not thought of that :thumbup:

2022-09-29T21:51:15+00:00

Passit2me

Roar Rookie


Thanks ATW, will look into that :thumbup:

2022-09-29T18:42:54+00:00

Two Cents

Guest


Fair enough. Rennie has done a fair bit of experimenting with combinations over the last 2-3 years that haven't entirely resulted from injuries so as you say there were still enough bodies from the match-day 23 who could've been subbed for underperforming players. I think it's a difficult call though as there is still limited depth in players that are close-enough to the benchwarmers let alone like for like replacements for the starters. Like you, I would be bold but this is not our career's on the line and our heads aren't on the chopping block.

AUTHOR

2022-09-29T11:43:56+00:00

Rhys Bosley

Roar Pro


Good point about other teams giving up on Combos Conner, I actually didn't realise it but you are right, with all the injuries combos can't be relied on. All players need to be able to drop in and play their role in the system, perhaps the ability to do thst is more important than individual brilliance.

AUTHOR

2022-09-29T11:40:24+00:00

Rhys Bosley

Roar Pro


Thanks TC. Without knowing how Rennie trains his players I couldn't comment, but I would note that even with injuries we had fresh players available after Bledisloe 1. Even a player like Koroibete was making uncharacteristic mistakes by the end of the RC, so if one of our best can't keep up the pace, we need 5o ask if anyone can.

AUTHOR

2022-09-29T11:36:27+00:00

Rhys Bosley

Roar Pro


Thanks John. The issue I have with keeping a player who played outdlstavdingly one week, is that they can lose you the game the next if fatigue gets to them. Whether it is the whole team or less than that, I think we need a disciplined approach to fatigue management. That sometimes means resting your best players, even if that is a risk.

2022-09-28T13:10:29+00:00

John Ferguson

Expert


Hey Rhys, thanks for the article. I like the concept but I think wholesale changes is going too far. Instead I would keep 9, 10, 15, wings and the front rows the same. This would of course be based on performance. Any player who played outstandingly keeps their spot too in the other positions. I argue for these positions except for the front row, get into the least amount of contact in a game and therefore it is more about their fitness than ability to recoup from being bashed. The the other positions are where fatigue would set in over the season. This comment was to entertain your idea and add my own twist but I do think the best team should be fielded each week.

2022-09-27T22:11:08+00:00

Connor33

Guest


And yet, Eddie Jones has given up on the notion of combinations given that YCs and HIAs are no so common.....so teams will need to learn to adapt. Look at Ireland, they played 5/6 halves with their best team against the ABs and killed them. But if they had as many injuries as Australia did this year, do we really think they could have beaten the AB last week--sorry, lost by 2 points. With the crap that we have gone through this year, Australia will be better for it next year--and sometimes the Rugby Gods provide a bit of luck (next year with the draw), which we have had none this year--ever more so when three of our best players have been sidelined with injuring in Hooper, Kerevi and Tupou (all of whom would make a World 15 at the height of their powers as they were last year).

2022-09-27T22:05:46+00:00

Connor33

Guest


Exactly, Rhys. Valentini needs to be rotated in the Europe and Ikitau is another.

2022-09-27T21:45:25+00:00

Connor33

Guest


You always make to much sense, which is never common here or elsewhere, Rhys. "This begs the question, if our best team cannot back up a performance the next week, would our second best team do better?" And it doesn't need to be the second best team but players filtered into it. I actually think after the emotional roller coaster of the previous week, the ABs were well placed to do well with 6 new players in the team--and at home no less. Whereas we were travelling, drained from the the horrors of the previous week--and a pretty grueling England and RC tests. But what I have been calling for is rotation--much like what European soccer teams apply. But you don't need to substitute the whole team, just 25-30% of it--which AU has had to deal with this year with so many injuries being the default. I think this will help the Wallabies next year.

2022-09-27T21:03:19+00:00

Jeff

Roar Rookie


Switch to a new server. I use Brave which does everything I could get from Google and blocks all ads.

2022-09-27T16:45:21+00:00

Two Cents

Guest


It's nice to hear someone actually discussing a potential strategy rather than simply bellyaching about lack of consistency and unfair calls. I appreciate where you're coming from because I've had rather similar considerations myself but there are insurmountable hazards with adopting your approach. Rather than simply shoot down your suggestion, if we entertain your central thesis that "well, they can't do worse than losing", should Australia essentially field two teams and injuries arise, we have to ask ourselves one very important question: what risks does that pose for either composition of 23 players that you would need to select for each game? If these players who are your depth in reserve get injured or suspended, who is left to replace them? And since they were to be the reserves for your first pick team, when that squad inevitably suffers injuries, who covers for them? Sorry, but you've already used up your reserves and you are then left with only untested players. Probably not what will win you a World Cup. Fatigue, both mental and physical, is a reality of the modern professional game and how players and their teams manage this is as much a part of their strategy as whatever they do on the field. Players who cannot sustain themselves over the course of a campaign are probably not suited to the international level, at least not yet. This comes with a caveat, however. It is well understood that a certain amount of time is required to achieve the conditioning one needs in order to be able to sustain the physicality and intensity required for 80 minutes at the top level, so rushing "fresh" players into essentially the meat grinder from a "standing start" is probably not going to be as fruitful as you might hope. I suspect the real undoing for the Wallabies this season has been the high tempo that Rennie demands of his squad on the training paddock, not just in games. I know that this kind of approach to training, where you "train hard, fight easy", seems intuitive but the toll that a game like rugby puts on your body can't be maintained 24/7. Also, because players in general are so much bigger and faster and stronger than they have ever been, prime athletes, the damage that they inflict on one another even at training means that the amount of rest they need to recover has increased dramatically. And this increases further when you are carrying a minor injury. Unfortunately, the recovery time is being compromised in the desperate search for a win and that's why the injury toll has been so extreme. Rotations wouldn't dramatically change this equation and would present far more complications for an already under-pressure team and interfere with match-day preparations, becoming a hinderance rather than an asset.

AUTHOR

2022-09-26T10:20:40+00:00

Rhys Bosley

Roar Pro


My comment about Holloway was more that his run demonstrated how the Wallabies forwards are being used more effectively in attack than they were previously than about him specifically. However, I think because of his loose forward background he is very good at punching a hole in the defense when set up properly and that is what we saw, google his old Super Rugby highlights to see it. He would have shown up more runs than three in the stats except he flicked a lot of passes to Wilson before contact, so I think they would have been recorded as a pass to Holloway and a run to Wilson. He passed six times, only Neville passed more which shows the way the locks are being used to anchor the defence and create opportunities for others. I reckon it is neat and hope they keep it up. I disagree with your assessment of his lineout and maul, he does well there, but I agree his defensive work rate and accuracy at the ruck are still not up to scratch. My main concern though is that he has made big mistakes at the beginning of two games now, with the dropped catches from kick off last week costing a try in a 2 point ball game and the silly yellow this week sapping the team of energy right at the beginning of the game. He mentioned nerves at the beginning of the first Bledisloe and if that is what is causing the goofs, he needs to get it under control.

2022-09-26T10:13:34+00:00

Ankle-tapped Waterboy

Roar Rookie


To avoid all that, if on Firefox or Chrome. Install any or all of these: Adblock or AdBlock Plus, and/or Ghostery, and/or ublock origin. I have forum text on an otherwise-empty screen except for the autoscrolling video. There is an add-in for that, too, to prevent autostart and change the video to video play-on-demand. uMatrix is also an option but I found it blocked too much, on other (non-Roar) web pages.

AUTHOR

2022-09-26T10:09:34+00:00

Rhys Bosley

Roar Pro


On point 4 I prefer the middle ground of aiming for the 2023 World Cup, but worrying less about risking a loss if it is needed to get there.

2022-09-26T10:08:38+00:00

Ankle-tapped Waterboy

Roar Rookie


Robertson is not available.

AUTHOR

2022-09-26T10:07:39+00:00

Rhys Bosley

Roar Pro


Thanks Passit2me, under what I propose the players would be able to develop combinations with their run on team during games, once every two weeks. If anything the extra injury recovery time would mean less disruption to existing combinations.

AUTHOR

2022-09-26T10:04:14+00:00

Rhys Bosley

Roar Pro


Not really the same thing, we still have a number of players who have played big minutes for the entire season who would benefit from rotation.

AUTHOR

2022-09-26T10:03:14+00:00

Rhys Bosley

Roar Pro


I don't really care if a team loses by more points than 40-14 Waxy, a bad loss is just a bad loss to me, so I don't see why we wouldn't just try something different. I agree with you that the support for Holloway wasn't there, it is uncharacteristic because it has been good this season, so that and episodes like Kellaway's jog support my thesis of fatigue. We will have to agree to disagree on Marika, he had plenty of room and just stuffed it up. He also made a defensive misread right at the end of the last game. I am not being harsh though because I think he is our best player, he has just played big minutes for nine test matches in a row, so I suspect he is only off his game a bit because of fatigue.

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