FLEM'S VERDICT: Why Aussies are still Cup favourites and Finch, Maxi will rise to occasion

Even though there’s a few questions around the form of a couple of Australia’s big guns, they deserve to be favourites to defend their T20 World Cup crown on home soil.

Aaron Finch and Glenn Maxwell are big-game players and I sense they will come good when the bright lights are on them at the World Cup and with Tim David bringing explosive hitting, Steve Smith is the unlucky batter who should miss out on the side for Saturday’s first game against New Zealand in Sydney. 

There’s nowhere to hide in the Super 12 format with only the top two in each of the two pools going through to the semis and I like the brutality of that format.

You’ve got to bring your A game every day and if Finch or Maxwell can’t get going after a few games, Smith’s a handy player to be bringing in.

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Finch’s form in T20 cricket hasn’t been as much of a worry as it was in the 50-over side. He plays a high-risk game and sometimes it comes unstuck. I’ve never seen him as a prodigious run machine like David Warner, who just seems to get runs at the top of the order even when he’s not in peak form.

(Photo by Albert Perez – ICC/ICC via Getty Images)

I think when Finch strikes form, he can go on a bit of a run and it’s important that he does as captain because we don’t want to be going into the pointy end of a World Cup with the skipper’s spot in question. 

When he gets going, he’s a genuine match-winner. 

If he doesn’t, Marcus Stoinis opens for the Melbourne Stars in the BBL so I’d promote him up the order with Smith slotting in somewhere in the middle.

With Maxwell, I get the impression that even though these warm-up games are all legitimate international fixtures, he looks like he wants the main stuff to begin.

He’s a big game player and treading water isn’t his style. With his bowling as the second spin option and his ability to float up and down the batting order, he’s such a crucial component to this side.

Bring on the big games and he’ll come through.

(Photo by Paul Kane – CA/Cricket Australia via Getty Images)

David can’t be left out of the line-up. He’s the future of T20 cricket. You need people who can finish with a flurry like him and Hardik Pandiya with India and David Miller for South Africa.

Big hitters who can come in and get 20 off eight balls. He might be short on international experience but David has played a lot of T20s around the world in differing conditions.

The finishing role is massive – Matty Wade was crucial for the Aussies 12 months ago in combination with Marcus Stoinis so between those two and David, we’ve got a powerful engine room there in the middle order that can handle anything that’s thrown at them. 

David coming in for Smith is the only change from the group which won the trophy last year in Dubai.

This is a team that knows how to win – they’ve played a lot of cricket together, most of the team are in good form and they’re playing at home so I can’t see any reason why Australia shouldn’t be favourites to be the ones lifting the trophy next month.

It’s generally quite high scoring in Australia, the pitches are faster and bouncier – we’ve got an attack that will take advantage of that because our quicks and Adam Zampa prefer those kinds of decks. 

The bowling attack is bloody brilliant – Josh Hazlewood seems to get better and better, Pat Cummins is a gun and Mitchell Starc is the X-factor that they might use in different ways, instead of giving him two overs at the start and the other two at the end, mix it around a bit more throughout the innings.

It’s the last chance for this group to win something big together. The selectors will probably look to freshen up the white-ball teams after this with an ODI World Cup next year and then another T20 one the year after.

This is an older side but funnily enough, T20 cricket has been suited to the more experienced players even though when it first came in we thought it’d be better for younger cricketers.

Guys like Cameron Green, Jhye Richardson, Nathan Ellis, Josh Inglis will get more of a run in the next couple of years.

In nearly every way we’re coming into this T20 World Cup in better shape than when we won it this time last year.

Playing a World Cup at home there’s a bit more pressure but the positives far outweigh the negatives.

With a fast-paced tournament like this, it’s bang, bang bang so the foreign teams won’t have the luxury of too much time to adjust to our conditions. 

England deserve to be up there with Australia among the favourites. They’ve got superstars, genuine power all the way through and clever bowlers like Sam Curran. His ability to land yorkers is insane.

India, even though they don’t have Ravindra Jadeja or Jasprit Bumrah, can’t be counted out. They lose Bumrah a couple of weeks before the tournament and they’re able to bring in Mohammed Shami, who’s a very good fast bowler. 

(Photo by Jason McCawley – CA/Cricket Australia via Getty Images)

Both those teams are going to have unlucky, world-class players who won’t make their final XI, like Australia will have with Smith.

New Zealand are always around but I think Australia and England should go through from that group. 

It’s hard not to see India making the semis from the other half of the draw and I like South Africa’s chances but Pakistan look like they’ll be the other team advancing. 

If we were playing in the subcontinent, Afghanistan could be surprise packets – they’re building a decent team with some fast bowlers complementing their spinners now.

It’d be good to see one or two of the associate nations like Namibia or the Netherlands get through and do well, that’d liven things up a bit.