Is this the Wallabies' big chance to climb the rankings?

From what I have read on these pages most people seem to believe the World Rugby rankings system is a waste of time.

Perhaps you gents would all like to top up your pints and sit back down and argue about which team is number one based on your take on recent results.

For me, it’s more a case of results into a formula and whack-o the did, we’ve got a #1. Looking at how the rankings sit currently; it is a fairly good indication of where each team is at the moment.

It’s a little more involved than two points for a win and a bonus point for tries scored though. The nerd that thought it up put a fair bit of effort into taking different match-ups and results into consideration to come up with a formula to reflect an outcome for both teams, that to me seems masterfully equitable.

The two playing teams gain or lose the same amount of points depending on the winner. Home ground advantage is taken into consideration.

Ranking points apart are taken into consideration. Big wins are worth more than close games. Yet our masterful nerdy type didn’t go overboard with his formula and put in a whole bunch of criteria that would have made the calculation far too complex for the Mr Average Joe.

How good are the Wallabies really? (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)

The up coming games have some interesting examples of possible outcomes that help to demonstrate how the results reflect in the rankings.

The first thing the calculation takes into consideration is the home team and adds 3 ranking points to there ranking for the calculation. How 3 points was decided upon is beyond me, so I won’t argue with the powers, I’ll just run with it. (I’m also not sure about the other doozy rule that allocates double points for World Cup finals games just letting the top four teams get further ahead of the rest).

Then the difference between the home teams adjusted ranking points and their opposition is calculated. If this difference is more than 10 ranking points then the higher ranking team of the two does not gain any points in the rankings, however if they are beaten then they stand to lose a fair lump of points.

In two weeks Australia meet France, currently these teams are separate by about 9 points add to this 3 points for home advantage and Australia are 12 points adrift.

In this case if (when) Australia lose they will not lose any ranking points and France will not gain any. Making this game a “friendly” in World Rugby Rankings land. However if Australia somehow win, or more likely France come out and lose, then the maximum points possible will change hands.

This is capped at 2 ranking points for a win of 15 or less (a close game), or 3 ranking points for a win of more than 15 (a big win). So this demonstrates how a win against a far lower team doesn’t change your ranking points whereas a loss can hurt you.

Unlike in our average Super Rugby ladder, where a win gains you points and even a loss can gain you points hence the teams are always going in a positive direction, points are lost and won with Rugby Rankings. So teams grouped around the same ranking points can quickly move up and down.

In just over a week we have New Zealand and Australia starting us off in the north, on the road against Japan and Scotland, respectively.

I can’t see New Zealand falling to Japan and believe they will pick up an easy win but not many ranking points due to there current rankings being well above Japan.

The closeness of the ranking points here limits the points allocated for a win, however Australia stand to gain more for a win than Scotland as the home advantage and lower ranking together work in our favour. A win to Scotland being worth 0.6 ranking points a win to Australia worth 1.4 points.

Remembering that the loser of the game loses the corresponding amount of points. So with Scotland currently 1.3 points ahead of us and no other teams playing a win to Australia would put the Wallabies to sixth ranking and drop Scotland to ninth.

Scotland’s Stuart Hogg (L) and Japan’s Michael Leitch (Photo by Paul Devlin/SNS Group via Getty Images)

After these initial two games all of the top ten teams are into action each of the following three weeks. Bar Japan who only play twice more, though won’t lose any ranking points as they are playing teams more than 10 ranking points ahead of them.

Of course, the permutations for ranking shifts are then endless. Finishing off with an extra couple of games in week five. What the results of the November Tests will show is that the World Rugby Rankings do indeed reflect the relevant position of countries and how they are playing currently.

Earlier this year our neighbours across the Tasman were aghast at their lowly 5th ranking, a pretty fair indication of how they were travelling. A month or so later they’ve won the Rugby Championship and the Bledisloe and sit within 3 points of #1.

Their results over the next four weeks really will tell whether they have had a successful 2022 or not.

Personally I can see them winning all four games, lifting them towards second or third, depending on South Africa who have it all to grasp or let slip, they should put Italy away, then by winning two of their other three games they will go to #1 on the rankings and the punters in the corner with pints who put down the rankings will also have them at number one with their less than scientific methods.

Wins all around to South Africa and New Zealand will see them back at 1 and 2 on the rankings. Argentina only get to play three games, this is a direct reflection on the test window and player availability.

They’re sitting in 8th and are playing 5th, 6th and 7th, beat any team and they should end up above them by the end of the month, also staving off any climb from Australia. I can’t see them winning any, though I will be cheering for them.

So back to Dave 38% Rennie and our Wallaby hopefuls. Five games in five weeks. Five losses and an unlikely win from somewhere for Japan and we slip to #10.

Wallabies head coach, Dave Rennie watches on during the Australian Wallabies captain’s run at Marvel Stadium on September 14, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)

A win against Italy and four losses and we move ahead of Argentina into 8th. This makes Italy a win at all costs game. Unfortunately the Northern Hemisphere based player picked in the squad is not available for week one and week five, so even though I suggest the strongest teams should be playing on weeks one, three and five, this is not possible. But it is up to DR to pick his strongest available team and really focus on a win in Scotland in the first week as the big priority of the tour.

Thereby jumping to sixth in the standings, then somehow maintain face against France and Ireland, before using the best form players to beat Wales in the last week and hold on to 6th place.

However, I can’t see the Wallabies beating anyone but Italy, so, as the sun mounts the yard arm and yes, it is indeed five o’clock somewhere, I will get my own pint of the black and sit in the nerdy corner of the pub and present my updated World Rugby Ranking list as at December 1.

1 South Africa
2 Ireland
3 New Zealand
4 France
5 England
6 Scotland
7 Wales
8 Australia
9 Argentina
10 Japan