Potential Springboks 2023 World Cup squad: Same, same but different

Now that the Autumn Tour has concluded we can get into full speculation on World Cup squads for the 2023 big dance.

In 2019 the Boks went with the following squad splits and given the personnel has largely remained the same, we can probably expect a rinse and repeat.

2019 squad split: 17 Forwards (Props 5, Hooker 3, Locks 3, Loose Forward 5, Utility 1)
14 – Backs (Scrumhalf 3, Flyhalf 2, Centres 2, Wings 3, Fullback 2, Utility 2)

Props (5)

Nailed on: Frans Malherbe, Steven Kitshoff, Trevor Nyakane, Ox Nche, Vincent Koch

The Boks have a very settled prop group, with interchangeable starter and bomb squad combinations. The only real point of interest is Nyakane, who looked unfit and didn’t feature in the Autumn Tour. He is, however, the only genuine cover for both sides of the scrum which is why depending on injury he will be there next year.

In the wings

136kg tank Thomas du Toit from the Sharks would have been my earlier pick at tighthead prop but with Vincent Koch finding form and du Toit’s shoulder finding Luke Cowan Dickie’s head in his lone Test appearance, it would take an injury to see him promoted.

Other options at tighthead would be the 25-year-old 138kg powerhouse Carlu Sadie. On the loosehead side, there have been a few selected into the wider and A squad such as Sti Sithole and Ntuthuko Mchunu, both mobile carriers with a lot of future upside. Again, unlikely to feature unless the starters are injured.

Hooker (3)

Nailed on: Malcolm Marx, Bongi Mbonambi

No changes or surprises here with set piece tyro Mbonambi and on the ball menace Marx amongst the first names in the 23. Joseph Dweba appeared to be the pre-ordained third hooker but will need to demonstrate considerable redemption in the URC to make up for his RC performances.

The good news is, that after a long search he may have finally found that missing barn door at the Stormers along with the powerful carry that originally saw him headed to France. Pencil him in.

In the wings

In 2019, the Boks took utility forward Schalk Brits to the RWC and in 2022, the coaches have again tested the waters with the selection of Deon Fourie. While Fourie provides a point of difference – he had the highest number of breakdown turnovers in the URC last season – he spends most of his time in the backrow so would be an emergency option only that would also take up a rare backrow squad slot.

Beyond this group, Andre-Hugo Venter and JJ Kotze have both got a run out in the SA ‘A’ and would technically be next in line.

Locks (3)

Nailed on: Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Normally a conveyer belt of world-class locks, it seems strange that the Bok pack haven’t settled on a third lock, instead co-opting Franco Mostert whenever required to the second row and usually as part of an 80-minute stint.

Mostert takes our utility forward spot though, with Pieter Steph du Toit also providing additional lock cover if required. So, this leaves one open squad spot – the RG Snyman spot. Unfortunately, Snyman has run out of time and band-aid which throws up a conundrum.

One of Snyman’s great assets is that he can slot in seamlessly at 4 or 5 lock and provide flexibility depending on the match situation. Looking at the locks that have been used over the last few years, there has been a real preference on mobile No.5 locks such as de Jager, Mostert and Orie.

The only power locks used to date have been Etzebeth and Salmaan Moerat with an SA A cameo of Jason Jenkins. I expect that we will see Orie reprise the third spot but given the options available it would be better to look at another power lock to cover Etzebeth.

In the wings

If we consider Mostert and Pieter Steph du Toit as cover for 5, then Jason Jenkins has the profile closest to Etzebeth in covering the power lock role and would be my smokey. Otherwise you are playing Etzebeth every game for 80 minutes. Beyond this group and its injury cover with Ruan Nortje who is tearing up trees in the URC covering 5 and Moerat at 4 next in line.

Loose forward (5)

Nailed on: Siya Kolisi, Jasper Wiese, Kwagga Smith, Pieter Steph du Toit

With captain Kolisi a lock and Wiese stepping up at 8 we are left with three spots. Smith for his late game energy, to the ball play and ability to cover the backline in a 6:2 split is a must. Likewise the returning to form of Steph du Toit, with his big motor and flexibility to cover 5.

(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

Which means there is one spot going between big Duane Vermuelen, Elrigh Louw, Evan Roos and Deon Fourie. What we know about Rassienaber is that they like both versatility to cover multiple positions and experience. This would rule out Roos who is a specialist eighth man and leave us with a crapshoot between the legend who is no longer a starter, an across the back row player in Louw and hooker/breakdown pest Fourie.

The reality is bar injury he will only be expected to play against Scotland and Tonga as either starter or relief. My call would be on Louw but I suspect we will see the declining Vermuelen for his experience and leadership even though Louw and Fourie offer more of a point of difference.

In the wings

Pretty much whomever isn’t picked from Roos, Fourie, Marco van Staden, Vermuelen and Louw.

Utility forward (1)

Nailed on: Franco Mostert

An often overlooked but pivotal player due to his immense work rate, Mostert is the ultimate utility – covering blindside and No.5 lock across an 80-minute stint. He backs up both Steph du Toit and de Jager but preferably from the bench.

In the wings

Elirgh Louw for blindside, 8 and at a pinch, lock. Deon Fourie for openside and hooker.

Scrum half (3)

Nailed on: Jaden Hendrikse, Faf de Klerk, Cobus Reinach

Thanks to Caleb Clarke’s immense patella and Reinach’s injury we got to see Jaden Hendrikse in action a lot earlier than was probably planned. One of the finds of the season for the Boks, with his pass, run and kick option taking in Nelspruit bringing a balance of play that had been sorely missing to the Boks.

Where perhaps he has added most value though, is in lighting a fire under the incumbent. While I cringe at the blonde Exocet recklessly flying around the field on defence, it has been really noticeable how much de Klerk has sped up his game and service from the base.

Instead of waiting on yet another methodical caterpillar for a hoist, we had two second rucks and ball in flight to runners taking on a defence going backwards. Extremely positive signs, so de Klerk and Hendrikse as 1 and 2 with Reinach covering the final slot.

Referee Paul Williams talks to Faf de Klerk of the Springboks. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

In the wings

Herschel Jantjies is now firmly in fourth spot, with the fiesty Sanele Nohamba also tried in the SA A squad. Embrose Papier at the Bulls has also been very good this season and would be a long shot.

Fly half (2)

Nailed on: Johan Goosen

At the start of the season there was a defined pecking order of Handre Pollard, Elton Jantjies and Johan Goosen. With injuries and diets causing all sorts of disruption, to the point we even saw the keg on legs, Frans Steyn, then Damian Willemse at 10 and finally an actual flyhallf in Manie Libbok.

Willemse at 10 is still a useful stopgap but his better positions are at 12 or 15, which is why he will take one of the fullback spots. Goosen has been playing well for the Bulls with a varied game that will suit a more attack orientated Bok side while not conceding anything from the tee.

So, the remaining slot will be heavily determined by the return to play and form of Pollard. If he is fit, then I expect he will be on the plane and likely to even assume his starter role over the more creative but built from glass Goosen.

In the wings

Manie Libbok from the Stormers (who I expect will actually take up one of the utility roles) with Gianni Lombard as the long, long shot.

Centres (2)

Nailed on: Lukhanyo Am, Damian de Allende

As one of their most instinctual attacking players and a defensive leader, the Boks will be banking on Am returning to fitness and back in tandem with the ram/tackling machine that is de Allende. Who needs to learn to pass more and kick less!

In the wings

Andre Esterhuizen is often touted as a better option than de Allende but barring injuries is unlikely to get a World Cup shot with the limited opportunities left. Jesse Kriel will cover 13 from within the squad but otherwise young gun Henco van Wyk from the Lions would be an outside shot.

Wings (3)

Nailed on: Makazole Mapimpi, Cheslin Kolbe, Kurt Lee Arendse

With the emergence of several young guns there is suddenly huge amounts of competition on the wings. Kolbe is definite on one flank with the up-and-coming wunderkind, Arendse leapfrogging the finisher Mapimpi into the other. Mapimpi has the final slot.

In the wings

Canan Moodie and his cohesion with Arendse would definitely be playing on the selectors’ minds with other options such as Leolin Zas and Edwill van de Merwe also providing the heady mix of blistering pace and X-factor.

Fullback (2)

Nailed on: Willie le Roux, Damian Willemse

The veteran and oft maligned le Roux is probably first on the team sheet nowadays, with his gruff distribution from first receiver providing both width and deftness to an otherwise stuttering attack. His heir apparent will be named as a fullback but in reality will cover 10, 12 and 15 from the bench depending on what is required.

In the wings

Warrick Gelant could still be in the conversation but with so much cover within the squad I don’t really see anyone else getting a look in.

Utility Back (2)

Nailed on : Jesse Kriel, Mannie Libbock

Kriel as an existing squad member, provides cover for 13 and wing is a definite. It will be interesting what the coaches are thinking for the the final spot. Libbock would provide a point of difference but is an out and out flyhalf.

I would still put him in the frame due to injury concerns within the existing fly half group and because he offers a point of difference to change a game – the same way Jantjies would with Pollard.

A backline that includes Libbock, Willemse, Am, le Roux, Kolbe and Arendse could and should be lethal.

In the wings

It would appear that Freestate phenom Frans Steyn’s day has finally come. The current choice would have to be high leaping Canan Moodie who is the future for the Boks at 13 and also plays wing.

From this group, here’s my match day 23:

1. Nche
2. Mbonambi
3. Malherbe
4. Etzebeth
5. De Jager
6. Kolisi (c)
7. Steph du Toit
8. Wiese

Subs:
16. Kitshoff
17. Marx
18. Koch
19. Mostert
20. Smith
21. Louw / Kriel depending on the 6:2 or 5:3 split

Forward pack and its replacements are very settled and formidable despite lacking a genuine power lock replacement. Scrums are not going to be an issue and between Etzebeth, de Jager and Steph du Toit the Boks offer plenty of height at line out time.

Hard carry comes from Wiese, Mbonambi and the locks with Kolisi providing the wide link. Of concern, is a lack of genuine on baller until the subs roll on but if 2019 is anything to go by then the whole 23 will be on the ball. All three of Smith, Mostert and Louw increase the late game tempo or have the staying power to be an early replacement.

9. de Klerk

Subs:
22. Hendrikse

The annoyance dial is switched up to 11 with de Klerk and both Hendrikse or Reinach as quality replacement options.

10. Goosen

Subs:
23. Willemse

The big glass elephant at 10 – a persistent issue but one the Boks are getting used to working around. If Goosen remains fit then they have a triple threat option, if not then it’s possible to lose the front line kicker and revert to Willemse, back the more territorial focused Pollard with more involvement from le Roux or ask Libbock to step up.

12. De Allende
13. Am

Subs:
21. E Louw / J Kriel depending on the 6:2 or 5:3 split
23. Willemse

Starting centre pairing offers power and perhaps more importantly the guile of Am who also marshalls the defence. Cover from the bench in Willemse and/or Kriel.

11. Kolbe
14. Arendse
15. Le Roux

Subs:
23. Willemse

Outside backs combine significant pace and X-factor with Le Roux pulling the strings from the back. We lose a bit of height in this way but both Kolbe and Arendse are very good in the air and have played fullback themselves.

All in all, a very settled and pleasing squad with quality of depth that blends gnarled veterans with new X-factor players into a unit that can also now play multiple ways.