Smart Signings: Cowboys were surprise of 2022, but can they overcome spine issues to giddy up higher?

It’s silly season. We’ve gone through the finals, the World Cup and the November 1 deadline after which, NRL players who are out of contract for 2024 can discuss terms with other clubs. With that in mind, we’re launching Smart Signings, our new series on who NRL clubs should be targeting to address their biggest weaknesses, using the players that are actually available to them.

Full disclosure: this is the hardest of all the Smart Signings to write. For one, the Cowboys were one of the best teams in the NRL last year, which makes life a lot more difficult, and for two, it’s hard to see where they can recruit given that they have lost very few players and replaced them immediately.

They’ve got no Top 30 wiggle room, and to boot, also have a raft of young guys in Q Cup that they will undoubtedly draft in later down the line. It’s a really good position to be in.

The Cowboys finished highly in a lot of metrics – obviously, because they finished third in the table – but there were a few outliers that perhaps predicted where they ultimately ended up, losing a Prelim at home to Parramatta.

Their defence was excellent, and the biggest improver compared to 2021, when North Queensland finished second bottom. Coach Todd Payten deserves all the credit in the world for turning that around.

They were second best for line breaks conceded and fourth best – behind, surprisingly, the Roosters – in terms of metres conceded.

In many ways, the Cowboys aped the Penrith system of devolving metres to their backline, building pressure slowly and being patient with ball in hand.

It was a defence-first philosophy and worked fine, but ultimately fell – like Penrith also did twice – to a Parra side that played slightly more expansively and matched them in the middle.

Reece Robson of the Cowboys (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Parra won the Prelim in almost exactly the same way that they defeated the Panthers in Penrith, and the way that game unfolded was was telling, for two reasons.

Firstly, it showed the limitations of the Cowboys at the pointiest end of the comp: they had all the ball, made all the metres and ultimately couldn’t score enough points against a better defence.

Secondly, it identified their inability to contain a genuinely good attack with elite players. The Cowboys were a superb system team and had well-coached parts that elevated them as far as a Prelim, but didn’t have the key decision talent that the Eels had.

On the day, Mitch Moses outperformed Chad Townsend, Reagan Campbell-Gillard outperformed Jordan McLean and Clint Gutherson outperformed Scott Drinkwater.

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If you care about such things, this wasn’t the first time that this had happened. The Roosters did it twice, Souths did it late in the season and, though North Queensland ultimately won the match in a miracle comeback, so did Manly.  

Rugby league is a highly systematised sport designed, largely, for the whole to deliver the opportunity to the individual to make the difference.

In particularly, defence happens collectively but attack usually needs a finishing touch. The better the defence, the better the attacking quality needed to breach it.

This speaks to the ultimate issue that the Cowboys had in 2022, but also why they probably shouldn’t worry too much about 2023 signings.

Structurally, they’re great. Payten has eked everything out of his playing group into crafting a defensive unit that was able to compete with the best, allied to an attacking unit that could generate pressure

This brings us to the issue at the heart of the Cowboys’ attack. Their key position players are above average, but tend not to cut it at the very highest level.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Chad Townsend is a good cipher for their issues in attack, On raw numbers, he looks quite good, but on deeper analysis, it falls away badly. He produced a lot, volume wise, because the Cowboys got so much ball, but in the crucial moments, he fell short.

Townsend’s per touch numbers for line break assists, line engagements and willingness to run are all way down, placing him firmly outside the elite. His kicking, however, is genuinely very good.

The Cowboys were a lot like that. Their ability to generate points was limited severely by how unwilling Townsend was to take on the line – he has the second highest number of passes per run in the comp – but he was often able to bail them out with effective short kicking.

That’s a very slow way of scoring points and relies on a fair wind of variance. It might be that Jeremiah Nanai can keep being in the right place at the right time but until we get a fair sample size, I’ll go with the previous two and a half decades of NRL and suggest that relying on your backrower to score 17 tries per season probably isn’t sustainable.

When you have sufficient ball against worse teams, it’ll see you through, but when the share of possession equalises, you might get found out. That’s what the Cowboys learned the hard way.

It was taking them a set more to generate a line break than the Roosters, Bunnies, Sharks and Storm, and while that isn’t necessarily bad – they were roughly equal to Penrith and Parramatta – but when the whips got cracking, they lacked the polish to get over the line that the Panthers and Eels had. Those two had Nathan Cleary and Mitch Moses, the Cowboys had Townsend.

What they currently have ais a great methodology for finishing in the top 8 consistently, but going no further. They’re not alone in this – just ask Souths – and in truth, it’s a pretty good position to be in. But their spine remains questionable at the very highest level.

It’s a bit of a conundrum on the signings front, because now is very much a time where they have to stick rather than twist. Their spine isn’t good enough but they can’t do anything about it.

The spine is currently Townsend, who they have until 2024 at least, plus Tom Dearden, only getting better in the six and on board for the same duration. Scott Drinkwater, probably their most creative player from fullback, and hooker Reece Robson, both on long-term deals.

But if you lined up the eight Finals-quality spines and listed them in order of ability, I don’t think North Queensland get anyone in the top four.

Townsend might be the sixth best halfback, tops, ahead of Lachlan Ilias, who is one year into his career, and Jamal Fogarty, who was largely injured in 2022. That is with Ben Hunt and Daly Cherry-Evans out of the conversation, too.

Dearden can grow into his role, but currently, he’s probably eighth of eight in his position. Robson and Drinkwater are capable but neither is in the same postcode as a rep jersey and in the lower reaches of finals quality.

The collective effort currently will take North Queensland a long way, especially defensively, and it is replicable even in situations where they suffer injuries. That’s where the system works best.

Their forward depth, in particularly, is excellent. Jason Taumalolo, Griffin Neame, Heilum Luki and Reuben Cotter are all inked long term and the 2023 stopgaps, James Tamou and Jack Gosiewski, are shrewd bits of business already in the door.

On a signings front, they have to prioritise what they have, and attempt to hold on. Nanai, as everyone and their dog knows, is off contract and able to speak to other clubs. The smartest signing of all is him.

Peta Hiku, too, can negotiate and they need to snap him up because his play style is perfect for what Payten wants to do, with excellent defence and hard carries from the backfield.

In a lot of ways, Payten is in the same boat as Jason Demetriou at Souths: his side fell one short and were defeated by one of the few teams better than them. The smartest signing is to keep the guys he has and let them play together more.

In 2023, they can hope that Dearden matures further into an elite five eighth, and that Robson continues his trajectory. They will be very hopeful that Nanai, Cotter and Murray Taulagi keep their pace of development too.

Townsend has proven before at Cronulla that one doesn’t have to be an elite half to win a premiership, if the supporting cast is good enough. It might not be in 2023, however.