Will David Warner make it to the Ashes?

With the conclusion of the Border-Gavaskar series, Australia’s Test sights will now set on the Ashes, which will begin in three months’ time. One of the most intriguing storylines in the build-up of the series will be the fate of David Warner in the Australian squad.

The controversial southpaw is on the last legs of his over-a-decade-long Test career. The question is no longer a matter of whether Warner’s career may end soon, but rather when within the next year or so will Warner retire or be dropped from Test cricket.

After his tour of India campaign was cut short due to a fractured elbow, Warner stated that he was “100% ready” for the Ashes and proclaimed he was “playing to 2024”.

While Warner himself has been adamant about his prospects for Australia’s tour of England, many in the cricketing fraternity have come to doubt his place in the Australian Test team.

Former great Allan Border has expressed that Warner could be dropped after “looking like he’s a yard behind the ball”. Meanwhile, Australia’s all-time leading run-scorer Ricky Ponting has declared that Warner should have retired prior to the India series.

“For him to finish the way he deserves to finish, the obvious thing for me was maybe to pull the pin after Sydney. He got 200 in Melbourne, played his 100th Test, played his 101 Test in Sydney, his home ground, and maybe finish there”.

David Warner. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Here I will be detailing the cases on both sides of the argument on whether or not David Warner should be flying to England with the Aussie Test team.

The case for Warner’s inclusion

Warner has been a constant mainstay in the team and provides a wealth of experience for a batting line-up bereft of experience in English Test conditions. Besides Warner, Steve Smith and Usman Khawaja are the only two batsmen of the likely top seven including Marnus Labuschagne, Travis Head, Cam Green, and Alex Carey to have played more than 10 innings in Tests in England.

Warner has also found success in the past in Tests in England. In the 2015 Ashes, he was the fourth highest run-scorer having tallied 418 runs at an average of 46.44 and posting five 50s.

The three likely candidates pressing to be Warner’s replacement have all been tried in the Test arena and been discarded themselves after less-than-stellar showings.

Cameron Bancroft was dropped in the 2019 Ashes after poor showings in the first two tests scoring 44 runs at an average of 11. His replacement Marcus Harris didn’t fare any better averaging 9.66 after 6 innings. Matthew Renshaw has never played a Test in England and his Test record is nothing to write home about with an average of 29.31 after 24 innings.

David Warner. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

In fact, none of the three candidates have a Test average over 30. Cameron Bancroft averages 26.23 after 18 innings and Marcus Harris averages 25.29 after 26 innings.

In his most recent stint in England’s domestic tournament, the County Championship, Bancroft had a subpar output. In eight innings, he made 183 runs at an average of 26.14. Renshaw has also had a horror run in his return to Test cricket in India managing to only scratch through 4 runs in 3 innings to average 1.33 runs per dismissal.

Although Travis Head has opened the batting for Australia in India, he will almost certainly return to the number 5 position in place of spin specialist Peter Handscomb. The Australian brains trust will likely be hesitant to play Head as an opener after he’s already displayed the capability to play match-winning knocks in the middle-order in seaming conditions as he did at the Gabba during the Australian summer.

The case to include Warner in Australia’s Ashes efforts will be due to him possessing a wealth of experience, having had success in England in the past, and the questions marks over his possible replacements ability to thrive at Test level in England against the ilk of Anderson, Broad, Robinson, Wood, Woakes, and Archer.

The case against Warner’s inclusion

Since 2021, The Australian opener has a Test average of 29.48. Even more startling is that in his last 15 innings, Warner has only passed 50 once when he scored 200 against South Africa at the Boxing Day Test.

Warner has also had a dismal record in England that would call into question his place on an England tour at the best of times. In 25 innings, the firebrand opener has an average of 26.04 with a high score of only 85. In his most recent tour to England, the New South Welshman posted a disastrous batting average of 9.50, which was only ‘bested’ by perennial number 11 Josh Hazlewood’s batting average of 9.00.

Warner struggled against Stuart Broad bowling over the wicket in particular. In the space of just 104 balls, Warner was dismissed by the Notts seamer seven times.

Moreover, Warner’s abysmal 2019 Ashes was the last time he played red-ball cricket in England. Harris and Renshaw have thrived in the County Championship and shown themselves adept at handling the swinging Dukes ball.

Renshaw played for Somerset in 2018 and 2022, along with a short stint with Kent in 2019 all in the first division of the Championship. For those two sides, Renshaw has combined statistics of 17 matches, and 30 innings for 1251 runs at an average of 44.67.

Meanwhile, Harris played for Leicestershire in 2021 and for Division One Gloucestershire in 2022. Coincidentally, Harris like Renshaw played in 17 matches and batted in 30 innings, to accumulate 1381 runs at an average of 47.62.

Cameron Bancroft is the Sheffield Shield’s best opener having scored 825 runs at an average of 63.46 to place himself as the top run-scorer of this season’s competition.

While the three openers gunning to replace Warner are still relatively unproven against Test-quality bowling attacks, their performances in domestic cricket could have them well-placed to make more of an impact for Australia than Warner in his current run of form.

Conclusion

Only time will tell whether the Australian selectors will go with the experience of Warner in their quest to retain the Ashes or they will choose to replace him after poor showings in the last couple of years.

If the selectors were to let Warner go, will the grass truly be greener on the other side?