Let's see what the much-improved Bombers can actually produce

It’s time to see if the Bombers can convert their improvement to results in 2023.

Despite the ladder indicating Essendon are the 10th best team in the league after nine rounds, there’s little doubt that the strides forward the club has taken on the field have been impressive.

Actual results can deceive at times, because the Bombers have played better than their record has shown.

They beat Melbourne, and went close against St Kilda, Collingwood and away to Port Adelaide. They fought hard and showed substantial resilience against the Cats in evening up the final three quarters, where history suggests they may have completely fallen apart after being blown away in the first quarter.

Even against Brisbane, the first half or so was encouraging, despite being undermanned.

Yet while they may deceive, the results ought to come eventually and now’s about the time the Bombers will want to turn their fortunes around.

Before the bye, they play Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton. In reality, they can win all four, although as finals aspirants, three will do, particularly given they play the Eagles and Kangaroos again later in the year, as well as the fresh absences for the Dreamtime game of Darcy Parish and Will Setterfield.

(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

The positivity and plausibility of entering each game with the confidence of being victorious is justified, as the progression under Brad Scott is entirely real.

They’ve become one of the league’s most efficient scoring teams once entering their forward 50, on par with Geelong and far better than Collingwood and Melbourne. Last season they were mediocre at best, despite having Peter Wright and his excellent season.

In fact, the absence of Wright has only served to help the midfielders lower their eyes going forward. Without the clear focal point, Kyle Langford has emerged as the best target inside 50, clearly leading the team for marks inside the arc despite his “swingman” status, kicking 16 goals.

Expecting Sam Weideman to be a part of the best 22 immediately may have been farfetched as the main forward, but he has performed valiantly in seven games. Jake Stringer and Archie Perkins rotate through the midfield and flanks respectively but have combined for 26 goals, while Sam Draper’s emergence as a goal-kicking ruckman is handy.

All this is to say that when Wright is to return, the Bombers aren’t necessarily reliant on the one-man show to deliver, with a lot more moving pieces. Sure, the small forwards need to improve their output, but the rotation of midfielders Scott uses offensively sees a lot more goals from centremen than you see elsewhere.

Put simply, it’s encouraging to see a team that was more mercurial than anything else on the offensive side of the ball be able to show strong improvement having been fixtured against better teams, without their best attacker.

It’s sort of a flow-on from the general buy-in that seems to have taken place at Essendon this season. Vibes aren’t quantifiable, but things just feel different.

Maybe it’s the fact that the Bombers are playing more forward-thinking and moving football and aren’t using their absences as excuses, but rather opportunities to develop.

There are the simple things, going from averaging 50.1 tackles per game in 2022 to 56.2 this season.

There’s a little deeper if we’re looking at pure numbers to indicate the more free-flowing nature of their game.

Last season, they averaged the second-fewest turnovers per game, but they were ranked 16th for metres gained. With ball in hand, they played it safe, going for lateral kicks and prioritising maintaining possession, rather than doing anything with the rock.

The turnovers per game have only gone up by a couple, still averaging the fifth-fewest turnovers in 2023, but the Bombers are all the way up to fourth for metres gained, averaging over 500 metres more.

That’s largely a function of someone like Mason Redman, who’s on the fringes of All-Australian selection with his current form with his kicking efficiency at 82.2 per cent. Players like Perkins and Nic Martin occupy space on wings and are driving the ball forward at career-best rates too, with that speed of ball movement and directness assisting that forward efficiency.

Essendon’s Archie Perkins (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

But then, there’s that maligned midfield duo of Parish and Dylan Shiel, whose performances have been fantastic, yet never quite receive the credit they deserve. They’re ranked first and fourth at the club respectively for metres gained. They’re also ranked first and third respectively for score involvements, as well as clearances.

That’s significant, as among other things, the duo has been criticised for too many empty possessions and at times, perhaps there being a disconnect between individual and team numbers.

Forget what anyone is saying about Parish, he is a player who should be held for a long time, particularly if he’s being as involved offensively as he is defensively.

There’s sneaky good midfield depth and versatility at Essendon when you look at all the names within the playing group.

Ultimately, it’s an above-average functioning team offensively that feels connected across all three sections of the ground, which is why against similar or lesser opponents, the confidence in outscoring them should be enough to actually get it done.

Defensively, work needs to be done but structurally, they’re still developing and without Jayden Laverde, Jake Kelly, Zach Reid or James Stewart to fill in a couple of voids, that’ll be hard to keep up.

Reid particularly, he’s the shining light with a bright future. Hopefully he gets his body right.

The Bombers concede far too many inside 50s, the second-most in the entire league and almost every player is below average at defending one-on-ones, which is why Scott has tried to make sure it’s all about help defence and intercepting.

Newly appointed Essendon coach Brad Scott. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Redman’s an exception to the rule in one-on-ones having performed well and Andrew McGrath’s move to defence has been incredible – Charlie Cameron’s still floating around in a back pocket.

All things considered though, while they’re being exposed to a heap of the ball, the defence is actually holding up reasonably well – they concede a score at a lower rate than Collingwood once their defensive arc has been breached. The defensive style is working, they just need their forwards work back harder and transition better in defence.

So really, this next month will tell us a lot about the Bombers.

This is a team that has genuinely improved in all facets of the game, but is far from perfect.

The injury list is still relatively substantial, and, quite frankly, there are still a couple of holes in the list that need filling.

If the Bombers had done this without any injuries, it’d be impressive. Consider the absences, it’s even more impressive. Then consider the fact they’ve played the top five teams in the league and have taken such statistical and functional strides forward and this might be the most impressive team of the season so far.

The bye is a month away and the Tigers, Eagles, Kangaroos and Blues stand in their way.

Finals aren’t out of the question for the Bombers, they’re certainly playing competitive footy that holds up against the league’s best, even without some of their quality players.

Now, it’s all about whether Essendon can convert their improvement into immediate results while they continue to develop a sustainable style for the future and welcome back some stars.