ANALYSIS: 'If Eddie persists with his game plan and it fails the damage to Australian rugby could be significant'

Eddie Jones’ second coming with Australia has started almost as poorly as it could have. Australia were destroyed by a South African side featuring a host of second and even third string players. It was a humbling example of both how far the Wallabies have to go and how little progress they have made so far. But, was there anything in their performance which suggested they might be on the right tracks?

Eddie was always likely to lean into the low possession game plan. He’s got limited time to implement a complicated attacking system. Given the restrictions it was, and remains, smart to focus on a basic game plan. However, in this first match the balance was off. Australia saw so little of the ball. They made just under 100 tackles more than South Africa. They had around 34% possession, their territory was even worse. It’s a game plan that could work, but here it simply gave South Africa the ball and let them beat the Wallabies up.

In amongst all that negativity there was a point which Eddie will be buoyed by. Australia made very few carries – Marika Koroibete was the only player to make more carries than tackles in the entire team. But they were quite effective with the ball, at least according to some metrics. Australia beat a lot of defenders, 13, which was a better ratio than South Africa. But they were worse than their opponents are turning those defenders beaten into clean breaks. That isn’t usually something teams have much control over, so the fact that the defenders are being beaten does suggest that clean breaks and therefore tries will be coming.

On their own throw or put-in Australia were serviceable. They won 80% of their lineouts, which isn’t great but was actually better than South Africa did, and they won back all their own scrum put ins. But, they were poor on the Bok scrum, conceding three penalties from just ten scrums. That will leave a mark on the Aussies. They weren’t just beaten by a better team; they were humiliated in an arm wrestle.

Wallabies coach Eddie Jones. (Photo by Sydney Seshibedi/Gallo Images/Getty Images)

The biggest question Jones has to answer is how are Australia going to score tries? It might seem obvious, but his game plan is set-up to pinch opposition ball, kick it into their 22, then play off that platform. It’s a solid idea, one that Saracens have used for years in the English leagues. Except they showed no signs that they could do that. They won just four South African rucks out of 95 and the Boks conceded just three penalties. The game plan was to give up possession then win it back. Instead, they just gave up possession.

One of the most important, and underrated, stats in rugby is 22 entries. It correlates exceptionally well with overall success, even better than points per entry. South Africa had 15, Australia just three. You won’t win anything with just three 22 entries. This is the core of the problem, you need to produce those entries. You can do that without possession, but you need to win turnovers and penalties. As it stands, Australia can’t do that and showed no signs of turning that around. What do they do?

There is a legitimate case to say that Eddie should just tear up his game plan and go ultra-expansive. Let players like Carter Gordon and Quade Cooper play with the brakes off and see what happens. Treat this World Cup as a write-off and make small changes but largely leave things alone until the tournament has finished.

It might sound defeatist but it’s pretty tempting. The risk with the current game plan is not only that you lose, but that you lose in a way that alienates all your fans. Judging from the comments on social media, which isn’t always smart, fans hated the style as much as they hated the result. If Eddie persists with this game plan and it doesn’t work, then there is actual damage that could be done to rugby in Australia beyond just a poor World Cup.

That is probably too abrupt though. Australia aren’t the first team South Africa have humiliated and they won’t be the last. The rest of the Rugby Championship will dictate which direction Australia should travel. If this weekend is another miserable result with little sign of forward movement, then I think Eddie should change gears and go all in for the expansive plan.

Things are looking bad, really bad, at the moment. But Eddie Jones has been a success everywhere he has coached, and Australia are a decent side – 7th in the world. Plus, they have a relatively clear shot to at least reach the semi-finals. There are still reasons to be cheerful even if that appears a distant dream at the moment.