Uninspiring England showed exactly why the All Blacks won’t win the Rugby World Cup

By Favourable Matchups / Roar Rookie

In week one of the Rugby World Cup a roadmap was provided for how to win rugby matches: Keep your discipline and go into the opposition’s 22m as much as possible.

Jason Ryan, the All Blacks forwards’ coach, this week pinpointed three keys to success: discipline, set-piece pressure and kicking. These rules for living (and winning) were the backbone of success over the weekend, whether that be France toppling New Zealand, England outlasting Argentina, or Ireland brutalising Romania.

The World Cup brings with it a mystique about how games must be played. Stop your exciting running rugby. Stop your risky offloads. Kick the ball, kick at goal and build pressure. It’s a game of pressure. You don’t win hard games by scoring tries; you win them by kicking drop-goals. Thank you Stranksy, Larkham, Wilkinson, Carter. Thank you, George Ford.

But in the humour of Ford’s Test match kicking practice, therein lies the key to World Cup success, and New Zealand’s reason for failure. To win consistently in pressure matches you need certainties.

These certainties are the things that Ryan outlined: set-piece, kicking and discipline. England are a generally uninspiring team. Their attack is dreary — to the point they knew they may not score a single try in 80 minutes. Yet, before kick-off, England knew what they could trust. They didn’t lose a lineout, they didn’t lose a scrum, they had the furthest distance per maul for any tier-one nation this weekend. And they knew George Ford can kick.

George Ford of England looks on during the Rugby World Cup France 2023 match between England and Argentina at Stade Velodrome on September 9, 2023 in Marseille, France. (Photo by Jean Catuffe/Getty Images)

With this knowledge, they scored a point for every nine metres they carried the ball. When your set-piece works and you kick well, you don’t go backwards easily. This means that you enter the opposition’s 22m more and you give away fewer penalties. These two metrics are the two best determinants of World Cup success so far.

Essentially, England created a shorter field, and therefore could force out a victory. They can also plan to do that against Japan, Samoa, and then in the World Cup knock-out games.

New Zealand cannot.

The All Blacks at their best look nearly unstoppable. They have attacking threats across the field that can carve teams open. Yet, we’ve seen recently that they are also fallible. The All Blacks have structural issues in how they play that mean they are at risk of being manoeuvred out of a match.

The All Blacks have prioritised a game the looks good over one that dominates teams consistently. They have strong ball carriers and that showed against France. Nonetheless, that advantage ultimately proved meaningless.

New Zealand carried the ball for 631 metres, 180 more than France. They beat twice as many defenders. They had 61% gain-line success to France’s 41%. Yet, they were annihilated in a metric that counts, territory.

The French defended smarter. The All Blacks’ attacking threat is dangerous for every opposition, so it’s less about stopping it than minimising impact. The French defence has built in safeguards that the All Blacks do not. Les Bleus missed twice as many tackles, but the percentage of those that led to line breaks was just 9.4%. When New Zealand missed tackles, they hurt much more with 31% of their missed tackles creating line breaks.

The All Blacks have much less margin for error. A 180-metre carrying advantage was easily wiped away by the 430 metres further that the French kicked. The All Blacks 22m exits were carries 48% of the time. They are playing risky rugby and are punished when their attack isn’t perfect.

Right now, what makes France and South Africa so good is that they build pressure to score points. The All Blacks, on the other hand, score points to build pressure. Fast starts created success in their first three matches of 2023 because early scoreboard pressure forced teams to change approach. Since Bledisloe Two, where they failed to score early, they have not been able to dictate the game and their attack has looked toothless as a consequence.

Against France, New Zealand scored a point for every 48 metres carried. George Ford can only dream of how many drop goal opportunities he could have scored with that many run metres.

The current All Blacks play style means that they are built to put up cricket-like scores against lesser teams. But if they want to win the World Cup, they will need to win three consecutive matches against teams that each have a clearer plan of how to impose themselves on a game.

The All Blacks still have the talent to win a World Cup, but this volatility means that in a knock-out game, unlike years past, any other team can dream to dominate the All Blacks and send them home.

The Crowd Says:

2023-09-19T23:27:42+00:00

Jacko

Roar Rookie


Blind loyalty to Mounga and Jordan is making you look stupid Jimbo.

2023-09-19T15:57:34+00:00

Jimbo

Roar Rookie


Blind loyalty to Dmac and BB just makes you look stupid Jacko

2023-09-19T00:35:21+00:00

DaveJ

Roar Rookie


Sore about what? Maybe the Boks have been more attacking than I realised. Great. It has nothing to do with the general point.

2023-09-18T12:08:40+00:00

CheetahBok

Roar Rookie


Hmmmm let me see if I understand this correctly. The Boks scored 5 tries to 1 vs the AB’s at Twickenham, 2 to zip vs the Scots, 12 to zip vs Romania, and you reckon the Boks have based their game on maximising this system. Your logic is getting worse. Boks mostly use penalties to kick to the side and exert more pressure. You have it all wrong, maybe you are just sore!

2023-09-18T12:01:22+00:00

Fox08

Roar Rookie


I agree on Cane. I’m sure he’s a nice bloke but he’s not like the talismanic AB captains of old, he’s more like a Taine Randall and I think he’s lucky to make the 23 tbh.

2023-09-18T09:46:19+00:00

DaveJ

Roar Rookie


I’m not an AB’s fan, just can’t stand this nonsense (and Wallabies manage to lose without excuses about penalties :unhappy:).. It’s clear as day. Three point kicks from anywhere on the field - eg outside the 22 - are disproportionate, distorting, time-wasting, unnecessary, and discourage attractive and positive play. There is nothing holy or necessary about 3 points for a penalty, just as there was nothing sacred about 3 points for a try 50 years ago, or 6 points for a penalty- that’s right, 6 - 130 years ago. No other serious ball sport gives away so many cheap, barely earned points way outside the “red zone” near the try line, goal line or goal. Half the time they are debatable, for minor infringements and don’t reflect any dominance. Fine, if they do reflect pressure or dominance, let the team awarded the penalty kick down into the 22 and seal the deal, with a try or even a field goal. At least a field goal requires some teamwork. Whereas penalty kicks are fetishised- the kicker gets a special tee - why? - the opposition must stand motionless and in silence. And 2 minutes are eaten up on the clock by the time of the restart. 13 minutes in all in the France game, though it gets up to 25 minutes wasted in most games. The Springboks have based their game on maximising this system so I can see why you’re having trouble processing.

2023-09-18T09:25:29+00:00

CheetahBok

Roar Rookie


Rugb’s ridiculous scoring system? Change sports mate, you are watching the wring one. So because it doesn’t suit the AB game plan, penalties value should be reduced. The logic is astounding! Astoundingly dumb though!

AUTHOR

2023-09-16T12:05:03+00:00

Favourable Matchups

Roar Rookie


All I did was point out the turnover differential between the two, hardly an opinion. Saying he was the best 10 in SR this season requires more explanation because he played on a good team, which lost the final and he had 34 turnovers conceded across the competition (Highest in the comp by 7).

2023-09-16T04:04:13+00:00

Jacko

Roar Rookie


Possiba ly??? So its purely YOUR opinion then. RM is not winning games for NZ. NZ has another option. Foster just refuses to use that option. Losing the cup again with mounga at 10 again, is just stupid. Dmac was the best 10 in SR this season. That CLEARLY shows he has improved from his 2021 form where he was coming off a major injury. RM never earned the place to start with. If Dmac didn't have his injury he was the 15 and BB the 10.

2023-09-16T03:02:28+00:00

DaveJ

Roar Rookie


Yes his kicking in the first half in particular was excellent, also a fantastic gather off his own garryowen. He and Mo’unga easily won the first half kicking duel. More mistakes in the second half with a couple of kicks, but not as bad as Mo’unga’s risky ones. But I’m not sure what you’re point is.

2023-09-16T02:59:56+00:00

DaveJ

Roar Rookie


Those scrum penalties reflect nothing of the sort. It was one prop slipping down to his knee in one scrum before the ball had even been fed, little reflection on the rest of the forwards. Second penalty happened when NZ appeared to have scrum ascendancy. There was a third occasion in the second half when commentators couldn’t understand why Antonio wasn’t penalised. These are tossups half the time. And NZ forwards outplayed French until the replacements came on. Way more metres gained and broken tackles. More turnovers. Lineouts equal.

AUTHOR

2023-09-16T01:06:28+00:00

Favourable Matchups

Roar Rookie


I'll have a crack at the McKenzie vs Mounga discussion. The reason that DM does not start for the All Blacks in crunch games is simple, he is a turnover machine. When he had the opportunity in 2021 as he was fighting with Mounga he showed this. He played 12 games but mostly started against tier 2 teams and came off the bench against the better teams. He had 14 turnovers conceded and 6 penalties on top of that. Mounga in the same year played 8 games, more often against the big teams and mostly started so they ended up playing similar minutes. He had 4 turnovers and 2 penalties in the year. As electric as DM is those 14 extra turnovers matter in games where the margins are tighter. In Super this year where they played comparable minutes again DM had 21 turnovers from handling and penalties to RMs 10. Its the same problem. DM led them against Argentina this year and even though they put on points, he had two turnovers. RM led them in a far tougher match against South Africa the following week, didn't have a turnover they won. Less flashy more reliable. That is probably the reason why DM looks so good against lesser teams and can't be trusted in big games.

2023-09-16T01:02:09+00:00

Jimbo

Roar Rookie


Hard to succeed when the coach has his favourite player go first receiver. Funny how successful RM is when he runs a team. Jacko BB's days are done, you can take his poster off your wall.

2023-09-15T23:18:32+00:00

Jacko

Roar Rookie


And you cant see past blaming everyone but RM. You will never see Mounga as the failure he is and the protected species he seems to be at 10. He has failed as the ABs 10 plain and simple. By what possible measure do you see him as a success? There is no measure that shows that. None. Its you who has major biases that dont allow you to see the game. ITS NOT WORKING!!!! But you want to keep doing it? That is so silly.

2023-09-15T09:29:41+00:00

adastra32

Roar Rookie


England lose because the team is still gelling (like the WBs and Wales), so mistakes and underdevelopment (especially in attack) have featured significantly. What will now be interesting is how far/well they can grow the undercooked areas of their game, whilst actually playing in a RWC. The basis will still be getting in the right parts of the field to execute (like Ireland and SA) - so yes, kicking focused.

2023-09-15T09:07:59+00:00

Chaz

Roar Rookie


Those technical scrum penalties reflect the fact that the All Blacks simply don't have the forwards to beat two of France, Ireland and South Africa (which they'll have to do to win the RWC), compounded by the fact that they don't have the strength in depth to cover the inevitable injuries a WC creates. As for England, I was just glad to see the pack and defence deliver for the first time in years, with George Ford showing the adaptability (something England have also failed to produce in years) to use this to win with 14 men.

2023-09-15T07:37:00+00:00

Jimbo

Roar Rookie


Your review of the game seems to conveniently gloss over BB's role in the match. Which was significant. Maybe mention how he dominates possession at first receiver and his kicking especially in the final 20 minutes.

2023-09-15T07:34:36+00:00

Jimbo

Roar Rookie


Especially when he has 15 on his back eh Jacko! Your anti RM bias keeps getting in the way of actually seeing the game.

2023-09-15T06:59:33+00:00

Full Credit to the Boys

Roar Rookie


Yes, its a great line and shows the differing philosophies perfectly.

2023-09-15T05:16:32+00:00

Jacko

Roar Rookie


Well how do you win with a average 10 running your game?

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