Let’s take a very early look at the 2024 season.
The paint may still be drying on Collingwood’s premiership brush, but 17 other clubs are now eyeing the future.
The first stop is the free agency period, then the trade period, followed by the draft. Either way, 2023 is already in the rear vision mirror.
Magpies fans can celebrate for a touch longer, but even the club’s footy boss Graham Wright had an eye on list changes barely an hour after the final siren on Saturday.
“No doubt there will be more tough list calls to come,” Wright told me in the rooms.
So, let’s get into it. An early, pre-summer pressure gauge for 2024.
1. Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs were one of the biggest disappointments of 2023, both for their win-loss record and the way they played.
Yes, Luke Beveridge has two years remaining on his contract, but a poor showing next season will spell trouble for the 2016 premiership coach.
In addition, Bailey Smith, Aaron Naughton, Tim English and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan are out of contract in 12 months. A bad year may accelerate one – or more – of their exits.
Luke Beveridge. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
2. Melbourne
If a team finishes top four in successive seasons and loses all four finals, the next year will naturally bring copious amounts of pressure.
The Demons are in the precarious position of being very good, but wanting more. They need another flag to frank this era or it will feel like a wasted opportunity.
3. Essendon
When you haven’t won a final since most of your list was in primary school, then something is seriously wrong.
Every year that goes past without the Bombers tasting September success only extends this pain.
They are building a list to compete and are finally stable off the field. It’s crucially important they lift in 2024, and at the very least win a final.
4. Carlton
The back half of Carlton’s 2023 campaign will surely make them one of the premiership favourites in 2024, and so it should.
But with this expectation comes immense pressure to at least make the grand final.
The club’s list is settled. There are no excuses.
5. Port Adelaide
The Power are a bit like Melbourne – but without a flag to show for its work over the past few years.
Ken Hinkley probably has two more cracks at it with this list, so Port are all in for the now.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
6. Brisbane
This may seem a touch low, but the Lions’ premiership window isn’t about to close.
They have time on their side, and although Chris Fagan will be desperate to atone for a narrow grand final defeat, the pressure on them probably won’t build until the very pointy end of next season.
7. Fremantle
Given their age demographic, the Dockers aren’t under an excruciating amount of pressure heading into 2024… but Justin Longmuir most certainly is.
He’s out of contract at the end of 2024, and cannot afford another lowly finish.
8. Gold Coast
The pressure on the Suns revolves around two factors.
The first is the arrival of Damien Hardwick – a messiah-like figure with three flags under his belt – and the second is their talent-laden list. How long can these quality Suns continue to fall short of finals?
Damien Hardwick. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
9. Collingwood
Of course the Magpies are under some pressure to go back-to-back… but the club isn’t exactly going to fall apart if they fail in their ambition.
Plus, do they even feel pressure? They relish it!
10. Sydney
The Swans are in an interesting position. They are light on key defensive stocks and require at least one inside midfielder. But the pressure gauge is not extreme.
The club is stable and their playing list capable of challenging for a flag once again.
11. Adelaide
The Crows would love to play finals in 2024, but another season hovering around the outskirts of the eight wouldn’t be the end of the world.
The real pressure will come in 2025. That’s when the Crows should expect to contend for a top four berth at least.
12. GWS
The Giants performed wonderfully in 2023, and the expectation will be for them to go again next season.
But the pressure isn’t necessarily intense from an external perspective – especially not for reigning coach of the year, Adam Kingsley.
Jack Buckley and Lachie Whitfield celebrate GWS’s semi final win. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
13. St Kilda
Ross Lyon is tipping the Saints upside down. Footy department staff have gone, and the playing list will be turned over.
But he probably has another year of grace before the whips start really cracking.
14. Hawthorn
Hawthorn had its success and is now in a full-scale rebuild. They have time to get it right.
Yes, Sam Mitchell would not want to regress in 2024, but a 10-13th placed finish is acceptable. The pressure isn’t really on him.
15. Richmond
A new coach and new era confronts Richmond.
A bit like Hawthorn, the Tigers have had ample success recently, and there is no rush to get this next instalment right.
16. North Melbourne
The heat on the Kangaroos and Alastair Clarkson is of fairly low temperature.
All the Kangaroos need to do is avoid being as terrible as in 2023 – if they can win six or seven matches, it will be considered a successful season.
Alastair Clarkson chats with North Melbourne captain Jy Simpkin. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
17. Geelong
The Cats have set incredibly high standards for 15 years, but the pressure is probably easing on the club to win another flag soon.
Of course, they will disagree with the notion the era is over. But surely it is. A mini, turbocharged rebuild is what’s required to challenge again from 2025.
18. West Coast
Nobody expects anything from the Eagles next year, and if their fans disagree, then they are delusional. They are at the very bottom of the mountain, with a long and arduous climb ahead.
There is no pressure on the club to finish anywhere in 2024, though they’d like to avoid more of those 100+ point losses.
George Apps
Roar Rookie
They won't feature at the pointy end of the season next year either!
George Apps
Roar Rookie
Yes, I think he has mellowed from fig jam into a fine wine.
George Apps
Roar Rookie
Here! Here! I absolutely agree with you - Collingwood had a few frees for not paid in the GF, as you said in the heat of the moment the umpires were letting things slide.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
To paraphrase Mahatma Gandhi when asked what he thought about Victorian civilisation. "It would be a good idea". Very self-referential, Chanon, more like pockets of gangrene if you ask me
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Three Rising Stars, right there at the bounce
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Nah, I still can't get over him wiping his blood on an Eagle player's jumper so he'd have to go off too .
ScottD
Roar Guru
Buckley has been pretty impressive in the media. One of the best I think.
Frodo
Roar Rookie
Of course!
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I don't think Doedee is backward in leaving but in his defence his going forward will be a positive for his new team to attack their deficiencies in defence. As long as it's not a gated community because playing outside the perimeter spreads the defence to thin. They say the best form of a tack is a nail but l reckon you'd be screwed.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Are you implying that the "true story" is the one Chanon's brother is suggesting?
Steele
Roar Rookie
That’s also true, but they won’t run with certain stories like this one, they never do. They’ve known the real issue for months. I give some credit, for instance it took the Police to out Laidley when it was common knowledge with journos.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
The media, the football media included, make their living at generating gossip which then creates its own news.
Steele
Roar Rookie
The media know the real reasons but won’t touch it with a barge pole. Instead we just get weird innuendo’s. Self preservation.
Frodo
Roar Rookie
Yeah but you thought Doedee was a forward! Remember.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
I think the problem Maric is being a half forward at his height is about the hardest position to play
Chanon
Roar Rookie
He’s expected to head to Swans, well that’s what the sewing circle have suggested.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
He'll be at a winning club at Freo for the next 2 years if he stays...but his flags will be at Peel.
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Well he won a premiership at the dogs Don.
Blake Standfield
Roar Guru
That’s why Freo aren’t high up the list. They’re a poorly coached, average list and a club with a poor culture of retaining good players. Most footy followers expected them to finish where they did this year and will have low expectations for next year.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
At the Doggies? Not much different at Freo. He was messed up by his manager.