The theory is that Australia is closing the gap with their trans-Tasman neighbours in Super Rugby.
The evidence is five wins from 12 matches – a 41.67 per cent win rate – which is a stark improvement on the six victories from 30 encounters last year.
Yet four of those five wins have come against the Crusaders and Highlanders, with the Reds’ round-three win over the Chiefs the only one against New Zealand’s top three sides in 2024.
The rise comes after Will Harrison’s laser-like boot saw the Waratah seal a stunning win over the Crusaders in Sydney on Friday night, before the Rebels were too good for the Highlanders 24 hours later in Melbourne.
But unless Australia can get the lion’s share of results over the next three weeks, it won’t count for much, particularly with finals, home finals especially, at stake.
It won’t be easy.
Australia’s front-runners, the Brumbies, will take on the Blues at Eden Park on Saturday evening, before hosting the unbeaten Hurricanes a week later.
After winning three on the trot against opposition outside the top six, the Rebels will find out if they’re contenders or pretenders over the next month as they take on the Crusaders, Blues, Reds and Chiefs.
The Reds will likely be without Tate McDermott and possibly Fraser McReight for their first of three matches against New Zealand opposition, starting with the Highlanders on Friday. It gets trickier from there.
The Force take on the Crusaders and Highlanders, before hosting the Chiefs to round out a tricky three-week period, while the Waratahs’ take on the Chiefs and Hurricanes after the bye.
It’s over the next three weeks that names will be written down and rubbed out by Joe Schmidt ahead of July’s Tests against Wales and Georgia.
HAS SCHMIDT FOUND HIMSELF A 12?
Hitherto, Schmidt would have been most concerned by the options presenting themselves at inside centre.
While several players are making a fist of it at fly-half, outside centre, and the back three, the lack of international-ready options at inside centre is troubling.
With Samu Kerevi hardly setting the world alight in Japan, and Rugby Australia keen to look in their backyard before heading overseas in any case, Schmidt would have been particularly pleased to see Lalakai Foketi deliver a composed performance against the Crusaders.
Although Hunter Paisami was one of the Reds’ best during their ugly loss to Moana Pasifika, Foketi was a calming influence on the Waratahs.
The execution of his core skills stood out.
The Crusaders targeted Foketi’s corner from kick restarts and the Wallabies midfielder managed to get length and accuracy from his boot.
He also managed to free up space for his outside backs, which is something both the Waratahs and Wallabies have struggled with over the past 12 months.
The Roar understands Schmidt is interested in a ball-playing option at inside centre and Foketi fits the bill at present.
IS KISS FALLING INTO RENNIE TRAP?
Along with Dave Rennie’s poor winning percentage with the Wallabies, the former national coach’s continual chopping and changing in the halves didn’t help convince his employers that he was the right man to continue coaching Australia through to the World Cup.
Some will say it was about building depth, but the longer Rennie’s reign went on, the more he looked overseas at fly-half.
Younger players like Noah Lolesio often went from first-choice fly-half to out of the squad altogether.
Similarly, at halfback, Rennie used three different No.9s to start his fateful last campaign as Wallabies coach.
The issue in all of that is that it denied the Wallabies cohesion, with the continual shuffling of decks not helping the consistency of the national side.
Les Kiss has got to be careful about falling into the same trap.
Although Tom Lynagh has been his preferred option at fly-half, the recently turned 21-year-old was missing from the side’s team sheet against Moana Pasifika.
A fortnight earlier it was Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, 20, who was out of the squad altogether, as Kiss tried to give his rising playmaker a spell to recharge his battery in his first season.
On both occasions, Kiss went with the jack of all trades Lawson Creighton on the bench, but once again the versatile back struggled. For the second straight match he kicked dead in goal and it gave the opposition a crucial scrum back in his half.
The Reds have now lost their past three matches and have a difficult five-week stretch ahead of them. The pressure is now firmly on Kiss’ side to turn it around.
THE LESSON AUSTRALIAN RUGBY CAN LEARN FROM ‘CANES HOOKER
When Asafo Aumua burst onto the scene in 2016, the rising New Zealand hooker appeared destined for stardom.
In much the same way as Taniela Tupou, the tackle-busting hooker stormed over the top of his rivals and dominated the under 20s world championship a year later.
It led to his surprise call-up to the national side, where he would pull on the All Blacks jersey in a couple of non-official Tests in late 2017.
Yet, the best part of a decade on, it’s only now that the 26-year-old is starting to live up to the expectation.
Aumua was destructive for the Hurricanes in their mauling of the Chiefs on Saturday. His sheer power was a huge factor in their New Zealand derby win.
It’s a lesson that Australian rugby officials can learn about the development of players, particularly forwards.
Case in point are rising forwards Lachie Swinton and Ned Hanigan, who are playing some of their best rugby after several seasons of ups and down which came off the back of playing international rugby early on in their careers.
Unfortunately, Swinton is off to France at season’s end while Hanigan is weighing up his future in Australia.
Nonetheless, it goes to show that forwards often take years to develop and blossom.
REBELS HAVE BOXED RUGBY AUSTRALIA INTO A CORNER
It seems inevitable that there are a few twists and turns to come, but the Rebels playing group is at least playing their part in trying to convince the decision-makers that they deserve to stay in the competition.
Midway through the year and they are in fourth place and on the cusp of a maiden finals series.
That says plenty about their character and the current leadership because their season could quite easily have spiralled out of control.
As such, given their position on the standings, it would be harder to win the court of public opinion if there was to be any move against the Rebels in the coming weeks.
Christy Doran’s Australian Super Rugby team of the week:
Hayden Thompson-Stringer, Julian Heaven, Taniela Tupou, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Ned Hanigan, Lachie Swinton, Charlie Gamble, Vaiolini Ekuasi, Ryan Louwrens, Carter Gordon, Darby Lancaster, Lalakai Foketi, Filipo Daugunu, Triston Reily, Andrew Kellaway
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
'Its better because by various measurable metrics including crowd attendance and TV audiences it leads the pack' That's no sign of quality but more of 'tribal' support of the kind that's pretty absent in Australia and New Zealand. Those tournaments look like total nonsense when I've watched and I'm baffled South Africa have any attraction to it beyond timezone and money.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
No ..Its better because by various measurable metrics including crowd attendance and TV audiences it leads the pack..Also the most challenging due to travelling and vastly different climatic conditions ....Including high altitude challenges ..Things that used to work in Superugbys favor ..Its definitely not just me but their is quite a broad consensus on this ..But of course it has vastly increased significance to me personally because my team The Sharks participates .
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Sure, but might you not think the URC is better because you support the South African teams and so can engage in the matches more?
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Yes I think it is....On balance probably not as much as the URC which is fast shaping up to be the best global comp...But certainly on an equal footing with the Premiership or Top 14 ..... Certainly quality wise the SR teams need apologise to no one ....I definetely comes the business end of the comp will pay more attention to it ...Right now just too much other rugby around ..
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
In the abstract if watching a sport isn't just a question of having a skin in the game but whether it's enjoyable, it's an interesting test case for you to see whether Super rugby is genuinely a good product.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Well the problem I have is I am a south African..Already so much rugby to try follow..But I am always very interested in Aus , NZ and Argentian rugby..Truth is pointless asking me if it works or not for me...I have zero skin in the game and the only esoteric angle that keeps me even marginally interested is the PI teams...I am obviously also intrigued with the lets say unexpected performances of the Aus teams so far ......Maybe later in the comp it may become worth watching ..lets see.. ..
Fox
Roar Guru
I have always called him that Muzzo – taken from article I read and in NZ when he was coaching Ireland – I liked it as it said “…he may be a kiwi and one of us but after beating the All Blacks perhaps we should all call him Irish Joe now”. So that’s what I call him.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
'I dont agree ..I dont follow much Superugy anymore as the Aus / NZ clashes have such an air of familiarity ' Sounds as if it isn't working for you then!
Qualify
Roar Rookie
Agreed! That would be nice. But we don't and at this stage I'd rather take a guy who's solid in two at the cost of his goal kicking. Can't handle another Foley.
Bodger
Roar Rookie
Wow, a big blow for the Reds.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
I dont agree ..I dont follow much Superugy anymore as the Aus / NZ clashes have such an air of familiarity ..But when the PI teams make an appearance Im interested ..They may very well have inadvertantly rescued the tournament ...
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
And French and Irish and England .. :stoked: All 3 putting monster packs on the field …
MrEflord
Roar Rookie
One of the first and only articles where I’m agreeing with Christy Doran’s comments. Not bad at all
Qualify
Roar Rookie
If Ikitau is fit, he’s my number 1. Just haven’t seen him play for a while. Don’t know whether he’s injured or what the deal is? Same with Bell, I don’t know how serious his injury is, but there’s just too much daylight between him and the other props, so he gets an automatic start. Same with TT. Then, as soon as Wright can string a couple of good games together against proper teams (Kiwi opposition) where there’s more pressure, I’ll consider him. And I use the word ‘good’ lightly, not great, not awesome, just not brain-fart ridden, please. At the moment I only picked him and Campbell because there really isn’t anyone else. Thank goodness for Kellaway. I picked Cale because, as I said, none of the Reds deserve starting spots after their embarrassing performances, so Wilson gets a group penalty. But other than him or Gleeson, who would you pick at 8? I’m more than willing to try someone new if a spot hasn’t been nailed down by an incumbent.
Qualify
Roar Rookie
Sounds like most of our props :laughing:
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
But then Tupou wasn't that impressive against de Groot in the set play.
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
Irish Joe??? Good name for a Kiwi!!
Jazz
Roar Rookie
Yes our No. 10 needs the complete package, attack, kick & defence, need at least 3 No.10's with all those attributes for injuries.
Packerd
Roar Rookie
Uru is out injured for 4 weeks.
Old school rugby
Roar Rookie
The only time you would put Gordon at 12 is when Quade is at 10.