Hunt defection won't have a lasting effect

It was inevitable that the surprising news of Karmichael Hunt’s decision to take up an AFL contract with the new Gold Coast team would send all the sports media and punters in to a feeding frenzy.

It appears to have caught everyone by surprise, with more than a hint of the cloak and dagger about it from the AFL – going all the way to the top.

My personal take on it is that it’s nothing more than a career decision on the part of Hunt. That it’s probably good marketing on the part of the new club. That some league players and their agents may try and get a bit of mileage out of it for future contract negotiations.

But otherwise, I reckon it’s business as usual for both the AFL and the NRL. There are no long term ramifications.

However, silly comments are already pouring in about all manner of things: it’s bad for the NRL; or it’s bad for the AFL; or it shows how weak they both are; shows that anyone can play AFL, and so on.

Basically, these are ignorant and prejudiced comments that are made without any knowledge of what Hunt can or can’t do, and any knowledge of what is required of either game at the elite level.

So I’d like to split this article into two parts:

1. What the chances are of Hunt making a successful transition from rugby league to Australian Football
2. Answering some of the more stupid comments I have seen on various forums.

The Probability of Success
Firstly, I would define a successful transition as Hunt playing ten games in his first season of AFL and then exceeding that number in his second season (barring injury, of course). I think that would be a fair enough achievement and would be deserving of plenty of praise, if he were to achieve it.

We should all bear in mind that the idea of recruiting players from other codes was first put into practice by Ron Barassi while coaching Melbourne in the early 1980s. In 1984, he brought over a few young Gaelic footballers who were all recognised as future champions in their sport at the time.

The group included Sean Wight, and in particular, Jim Stynes, who went on to achieve great success with Melbourne, winning a Brownlow and playing in a Grand Final along the way.

So let’s have a look at Jim Stynes.

The most important thing to bear in mind is that there are similarities in the biomechanics of each game, primarily being able to kick and handball while running at full pace (two of the key distinguishing features in Australian and Gaelic Football as compared to other codes).

Yet, it took Jim Stynes a full three years of special training and running around in the Reserves (often with a “runner” alongside him) to be in a position to finally debut in 1987, after which he was immediately dropped.

In other words, it required a massive effort from both the club and Stynes to become a regular player (which he eventually did with distinction).

It should also be remembered that Stynes was a very gifted athlete, with good stamina and good natural fitness, which no doubt helped him finally achieve the record of the most consecutive games ever played – 244, an incredible achievement in anyone’s language.

But even with everything going for him, including having the physique to play the specific role of ruckman, it was a long and arduous journey for him.

Stynes is not only remembered for longevity in the game, he is also remembered for one infamous event.

In his debut year, 1987, playing in a preliminary final, and with Melbourne only seconds away from qualifying for their first grand final in 23 years, Stynes committed the mortal sin of running across the mark and providing Buckenara with a 15 metre penalty that put him in range of goal, which he duly converted from about 45 metres.

Put all this together and the lesson?

Absolutely everything, absolutely everything, has to go your way just to have a fighting chance at making even a small success of the game if you’re coming from outside the game – and that also includes oodles of effort on the parts of both the club and the player.

Also, as the preliminary final example shows, in any game, there are little nuances that you better get on top of very quickly otherwise it’s going to be a very short career.

To show the basic skills out on the training track is one thing – to display an intuition for the game in the helter skelter chaos that is Australian Football is something completely different.

Back to Hunt.

The one disadvantage he has is that he can’t naturally slot into an identifiable position like ruck, whereas Stynes, and more recently, Mike Pyke, obviously had the right build and temperament to play ruck.

Some have mentioned half-back flank, where, for arguments sake, he might be asked to mind a player like Gary Ablett.

Let’s consider this scenario.

Hunt is minding Ablett on the flank (which in the modern game, might mean almost anything). The ball is 100 metres downfield, but could be in Ablett’s hands within a few seconds via a huge number of variations in play, far too many to mention in even a longish article such as this.

Would Hunt have the smarts right now to make sure Ablett didn’t get his hands on the ball?

I can promise you now, he wouldn’t.

This isn’t a question of relative skills, toughness, speed, or whatever. It’s about reading the game and having real time on-field smarts – and Hunt would not have that right now in any meaningful degree (certainly not sufficient to stop Ablett getting to the footy).

Responding to silly points being made out there on the blogosphere
1. It shows that anyone can play AFL
Seeing that where AFL clubs look beyond the AFL, they target gifted athletes, one could mount the argument that it shows the exact opposite.

2. It shows that you only need to be an athlete to play AFL
It’s certainly true that athleticism will get you far if you don’t have a background in the game, in the sense that the Swans don’t mind trying out Pyke because he’s 200 cm and can run with pace and has great stamina.

If he had been that tall but lacked the pace and stamina, they wouldn’t have bothered!

However, as you will see above, athleticism, hardness, and ball skills, are not enough on their own. As in all sports, you need to have an understanding of the game at an intuitive level – that’s the biggest challenge.

3. AC Milan or Barcelona wouldn’t recruit someone from another game
I’ve come across this one a few times already in various blogs. It sounds true at first glance, but then it occurred to me – some of the biggest and best names in the game do not come from an Association Football background (think about it).

That aside, I’m aware of a few former Gaelic Football schoolboy champions who have had very successful careers at the elite level of Association Football. Niall Quinn comes to mind. But I know there are others.

4. This is a disaster for the NRL and/or the AFL
Yes, different people are saying it’s the end of the world for one or the other. Pay no attention to that. This time next year, most will have forgotten that Hunt is scratching around for the footy in the VFL in some bumpy suburban ground somewhere in Melbourne.

This tale has a long way to play out. Just follow it and enjoy the ride!