Central Coast Mariners players (L to R) Tom Pendeljak, Matthew Simon and John Hutchinson sit dejected after loosing 0-1 to the Newcastle Jets in the A-League Grand Final in Sydney on Saturday, Feb. 24, 2008. AAP Image/Paul Miller
I recently read that Adam Griffiths had just signed with a Saudi club. An attraction for him was the fact that the side had finished fourth last season and had qualified for the ACL.
Naturally, this got me thinking about our prospects of having four teams qualifying for the ACL, which in turn, inevitably led me to mulling over the question of promotion and relegation.
Now, I know this topic comes up regularly on many forums, so I thought I would use this article to synthesise some of the better ideas I have come across in the blogosphere (including my own, of course).
Assumptions:
1. Promotion and relegation is going to be tough in the Australian context – don’t pay attention to anyone who thinks otherwise. I’m not saying impossible, I’m just saying it will be extremely difficult.
2. The next TV deal will result in an approximate doubling of TV rights from where we are presently (realistic, but by no means a given).
3. The current trend of plenty of bidders for licenses will continue into the foreseeable future, meaning that the A-League could breach 16 teams in four or five years.
Each assumption in turn leads to an important plank of how we get to a promotion and relegation system.
Firstly, why will it be difficult?
Consider what every single club CEO has ever said about the prospects for their club. I will bet you that at some stage or another, they have said something along the following lines: if we can get some success on the field, our future looks bright, and so on.
Does anyone see the obvious paradox in these sorts of statements?
Clearly, in a very young league, with most clubs still struggling to establish themselves, I can tell you right now that if relegation was introduced tomorrow, the first team to be relegated would be as good as dead in the water in terms of its long term viability.
This leads us to the second assumption.
It seems to me that the commercial reality is that even with a doubling of TV rights in a few years time we can choose to either:
a. double salaries; or
b. introduce a second tier,
But we can’t do both. Why?
Because a promotion and relegation system can only work in the Australian context if the second tier is only marginally below the first tier in terms of quality and consequently, access to cash flow.
In other words, the second tier salary cap would need to be around two-thirds of the first tier salary cap, and this immediately tells us that average salaries cannot increase in the same proportion as TV rights because the 2nd tier will need to be subsidised from those TV rights to maintain a relatively high standard (i.e. a standard higher than would otherwise exist if there was no cross-subsidisation).
Now the third assumption: what was the point of mentioning ongoing growth that would take us beyond 16 clubs? To start a comp from scratch with 8, 10 or whatever number of clubs is actually a big ask at the best of times.
For this reason it has occurred to me that if we can achieve steady growth to 16 teams, in that final year where we accept the last two clubs to make up the 16 teams, the FFA would proclaim the commencement of a second tier the following season, on the understanding that the two bottom teams of the current season would be relegated, to be joined by six new teams to form the new second tier.
We would then end up with 14 teams in the A-League, and 8 teams in the First Division (for argument’s sake).
There’s nothing magical about these numbers except to state that a jump in six teams in the one year is about the very tallest order we should be aiming for – anything higher is just too difficult in terms of logistics, in other words, it’s a realistic transition plan.
But make no mistake, even with all of the above occurring (more or less), the second tier would present a major challenge for years to come. I would predict a revolving door of clubs at the bottom of that second tier continuing for decades, maybe forever.
Would we end up with a permanent top three or four clubs as is to be found in the rest of the World?
Not while there’s a salary cap we won’t.
On the contrary, I would envisage a solid big 10 (or so) teams, with three or four at the bottom of the first tier in a constant struggle to stay above, joined by the team newly promoted.
The honest truth is that if we end up with a solid big 10 or so clubs who never experience relegation, the A-League will probably remain more financially secure.
For instance, what good is there for the league to see the Victory’s membership drop from 30,000 to 10,000 if they were ever to experience relegation? Absolutely zero benefit.
The FFA can’t guarantee that won’t happen of course, but it can progress to the sort of environment where that’s unlikely to happen (it’s in its best interests).
Every now and then, we might get a team rising above the morass on a semi-permanent basis, and that’s where the romanticism comes into it for all those new clubs starting out in the 2nd tier.
The reality for most of these clubs, though, is that life will be short and brutish.
That’s what we will have to pay the piper to get our four teams into the ACL.
mushi
Roar Guru
Where did I say quality in small doses? I said the only “meaning” Australia will have is delivering quality and that over expansion won’t achieve that. I never suggested the dosage of that quality. I’d be more than happy to discus this with the Loweys, or Mr Palmer, as I’m sure they’d be able to understand that over expansion does not result in increased quality.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
the current confeds are already full of geographic anomalies and oddities - but that idea is way out htere!!
md
Guest
Interesting isn't it. I have a theory that Oceania, East Asia and Concacaf will merge into a Pacific conference, with the Caribean nations joining Conmebol and West Asia joining Africa. You would then have 4 very equal conferences that make a lot more geopolitical sense than the current 5 groupings.
md
Guest
Population density is a very silly statistic if you are referring to Australia - we are heavily clustered and will remain so for geographical reasons. Population-wise we are about 45% the size of England. That's the number you need.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Jimbo You're absolutely right. But if you look at the three assumptions underpinning this proposed transition plan, you will find that: 1. it does start off with the basic premise that there is no business case right at this moment (the article goes to great pains to emphasise that point); and 2. it's predicated on a doubling of TV rights in the next TV deal (but it stresses that the FFA would have to make a choice between subsidising a 2nd tier or allowing salaries to rise considerably within a single tier, but it would not be able to do both).
jimbo
Guest
Of course the FFA would love to have 4 ACL spots and it would help boost Australian football, but it doesn't want to throw away money either. There is no business case currently that the increased revenue for an additional 2 ACL spots will cover the cost of running another national football competition as the second tier to the A-League.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
If you have read the article carefully, and just about every single post - you will have noted that the difficulty is emphasised and is actually front and centre. So - if the FFA was still keen to pursue P&R because of the end goal of having 4 teams in the ACL, what is a possible transition plan. I've put forward one possible plan, based on a few assumptions (reasonably realistic ones I might add), but I have said every step of the way that it will be extremely difficult and carry immense risk. I've always made it quite clear that the lower regions of such a second tier would probably be in a permanent state of flux, with teams coming and going (emphasising once again that it will not be all beer and skittles). Anyway, your population spread figures are a little bit over the top when you consider the incredible distance some Russian clubs have to cover.
danny
Guest
i think in the foreseeable future, having a second tier (with no promotion/relegation) is the best we could hope for. if that ever cemented itself into the sporting landscape, then we could consider bringing in p&r. a second tier league would probably comprise teams from regional areas that couldn't afford an a-league team. i personally know that the mayor of albury has suggested that albury-wodonga would seriously consider becoming part of such a comp. initially, most cities that would be represented would more likely than not be found in south-eastern australia, stretching from eg. launceston in the south to sunshine coast in the north. a decent area but much more manageable than wellington-perth. an independant second division, i reckon, would be quite sustainable. based on a model similar to the vfl. if the australian sporting landscape progressed sufficiently, we could flirt with the idea of promotion and relegation. but otherwise, it would be a mid-way between state leagues and the a-league, providing an additional path for improving our talent stocks and bringing semi-professional football to regional australia. that's what i think we should be aiming for.
Nick
Guest
No your right that it is not universal across the board, but it is a very common situation that the lower leagues have more teams... hence the phrase 'pyramid' The real issue is what is constantly brought up considering investment by sponsers in teams that face the threat of relegation. Though I do wonder why you insist on 10 as being a suitable number of necessarly strong teams? Australia really only has about six major populations bases; Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth... surely a strong team from each would be all that is required? Though obviously the more the merrier. Maybe the FFA would be better advised to promote the state leagues to a better level so that maybe an FA cup style tournament could feature... though obviously the A-League teams would dominate so the chances of upsets English style would be next to impossible... but it could possibly bridge some of the gap and fits the requirement of having a Cup...
Davos
Guest
fyi: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/231107-how-us-soccer-could-learn-from-the-socceroos?search_query=socceroos
Davos
Guest
My reference to the IPL was simply about the comparison of a one sport not totally accepted in the greater part of asia to another sport that is widely accepted throughout asia and the potential opportunities for greater income streams for australian clubs through corporate sponsorship and tv coverage. Also on your point of "the only meaning", I don't agree that the only positive that australian football offers asia is quality in small doses. I liked to hear your argument on that issue with the likes of Lowey and Palmer for starters.
Davos
Guest
I didn't infer that the MLS was a failure, nor success, simply asked the question, is australia, also running a similar franchise model with football clubs as the MLS at risk to sliding in out and out of clubs/public interest as the MLS? Are there lessons to be learnt, as the MLS doesn't have a P&R system. They certainly are watching what the FFA and A-L are doing; http://bleacherreport.com/articles/231107-how-us-soccer-could-learn-from-the-socceroos?search_query=socceroos
Realism Injection
Guest
Comparing Apples with Apples. England Size: 130,000 sq km Population: 52,000,000 (52 million) Population Density: 400 per sq. km. Australia Size:7,690,000 sq km Population: 22,000,000 (22 million) Population Density: 3 per sq km. If Australia had the same population density as England - Population of Australia: 3,000,000,000 (Over 3 billion people) Ok, we don't need 92 professional clubs - how about we settle for a quarter of that. We still need over 750 million people to be on a comparable level to England - and then you have the question of the strengths of other sporting codes in Australia vis-a-vis Soccer compared to what it is in England. How can promotion/relegation system possibly work - short of their being hundres of millions of people living here (to bring down costs and also provide more wealth to support such a concept in Australian Soccer) Answer. It can't Fact is - introducing a promotion/ relegation system into Australian Soccer anytime in the next 25 years will likely bankrupt the sport. After that - who knows, but that depends more on technological advancement than anything else - teleportation anyone? Visit soccer.co.uk for all the latest UK Soccer results.
Mushi
Guest
Before you get defensive about a "true" second division I am referring to a P&R european style second division. Not a minor league style second division.
Mushi
Guest
Well that is staggering then.
Mushi
Guest
Sorry I was referring to the previous poster's inference regarding the failure of the MLS. I didn’t want to argue what constituted failure or success so figured simply conceding the point of failure was the easiest way to progress to countering his suggestion that it was somehow due to the absence of true second division.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
It's interesting that they follow the European match day rules of allowing 18 players to be named (seven man bench). I've always thought that it's a bit limiting for our coaches to only allow a four man bench - one or two extras would be preferable.
AndyRoo
Roar Guru
I agree Pip the time to get in is now while other leagues and clubs aren't as interested. When participation starts making clubs money it will be harder to jump the line. But when the competition settles, they might bring in the coefficient system they use in Europe as that is much more transperent and all our self crippling use of promotion relegation will be for naught. One big downer is the neutral final, I cant imagine Japanese fans rocking up for two west asian teams if that ever eventuates. While we really want an extra spot, there was that team in west asia that opted out so they could focus on the league. And props to Pip for such an interesting thread
md
Guest
That doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of US football. Much of the best soccer in the USA is played at varsity level under the NCAA. To get an idea of how big that is, there are 22 top division conferences each with 8 - 16 teams, the winners of which get a spot in a 48 team tennis style elimination tournament (the balance based on percentages in the conferences). There is also a division II and a division III. Cheers md
MVDave
Guest
"The MLS is failing because it doesn’t have another lower quality league?" The MLS isnt failing...far from it. It has just added Seattle to its league and they are averaging 32,000 per game. They will add a team from Philly next year and 2 more the year after. They are expanding and doing nicely. More cities are vying to get a team in the league, clubs are building brand new grounds to play in...the MLS is far from failing in fact going the other way and expanding.