Dallas Johnson from the Storm is spear tackled in the NRL by Gold Coast Titans players AAP Image/Action Photographics/Jeff Crow
With the NRL footy season about to end after this Sunday’s blockbuster between the Eels and Storm, it’s now time for me to try and remember what I do with my time during the off season.
One way to pass the time is to have a look into the future and see what it holds for the NRL, in this case its potential expansion plans.
Here is my guess at which clubs will be lining up for the beginning of the 2020 NRL season.
These predictions may seem reasonable if you have been following media and fan discussions surrounding the matter.
Firstly, here are the new teams:
1. Central Coast team.
Everyone’s prediction for the next cab off the rank. Population of 300 thousand, and they already have the 20,100-seater Bluetongue stadium.
The Central Coast are screaming out for an NRL license, the only real question is whether it will be The Central Coast Bears or a brand new name – for example The Central Coast Centurions.
While the Greg Florimo lead Bears bid has already named a coach in David Farleigh and sponsor in Mortgage House, the NRL will want to use the Gold Coast Titans as a blueprint for all new bids and teams due to their fantastic success.
If the fans in the Central Coast were given the choice between having an extinct Sydney team or having their very own team name and image, it’s hard to see them preferring the Bears.
2. Queensland teams.
With its huge population growth and three current teams all going gangbusters, the NRL will want to give licenses to more Qld teams. This is only logical. The only question is where and who first.
The Central Qld bid is currently considered to be out in front, but this of course can change. They are rugby league fanatics and have a team in the Qld Cup competition.
They would be based in Rockhampton and the only concern is that the population of Central Qld is only 190K.
However, the NRL will look favourably at the Central Coast due to the ongoing support for the North Qld Cowboys, arguably the most loyal supporters of any NRL team.
The NRL can easily forecast Central Qld having the same strong parochial support.
The Sunshine Coast have a population of 312 thousand are they are the 2009 Qld Cup champions in their first year in the competition.
The Sunshine Coast team wear maroon and white, they are the Eagles, and the Sunshine Coast NRL bid have stated although they would prefer their own NRL team they are willing to accept a relocated Sydney team.
So guess where I’m going with this one?
Manly to relocate to the Sunshine Coast.
Many Sydneysiders agree that ten Sydney teams are too many for a 16 or 18 team competition. Manly have done well to fight back from near bankrupcy in the nineties, but they have private ownership who will surely be tempted to relocate to a strong rugby league demographic in Australia’s fastest growing region.
Sea Eagles chief executive Grant Mayer revealed his club’s plans to host NRL games on the Sunshine Coast back in 2008 and don’t forget the NRL’s $8 million relocation package is available for any Sydney club contemplating a move interstate.
The Ipswich/Logan corridor was named by David Gallop as a possible place for a new team.
Brisbane’s South West area’s of Ipswich and Logan are joined by the motorway, have a population of 400K and ironically the Ipswich Jets battled against the Souths Logan Magpies in the 2008 Qld Cup grand final. This would make a fantastic local derby with the Brisbane Broncos and would not affect the Broncos powerful influence in Brisbane.
Here are the definite maybes:
1. The Wellington Orcas
Out-pointed for the 16th license by the Gold Coast Titans (as were the Central Coast Bears) and unfortunatly will probably get out pointed in any future bids as well.
The NRL will need to put in a lot of effort towards junior development in the North Island in particular before giving New Zealand a second NRL team.
2. Papua New Guinea
The only country where rugby league is the number one sport.
For me, the Kumuls were the highlight of the 2008 Rugby League World Cup and you can imagine them being crowd favorites. Although the passion and enthusiasm is obviously there, the infastructure is not.
Mal Maninga has backed a PNG bid for inclusion into the Qld Cup and this is a logical step before the NRL.
PNG, however, is still for the most part a third world country and they will need huge improvements in the country’s infastructure first.
This is a bigger priority than sport.
In saying that, a PNG team in the NRL would be a great achievement and something for the whole country to identify with.
3. Adelaide/Perth
The AFL exhausted all avenues in the southern states before expanding with the new Western Sydney and Gold Coast teams.
Due to weak administration and News Ltd’s involvement, rugby league is at least ten years behind the AFL and has not yet given licenses in the northern states, where they are so obviously wanted.
These northern states expansion plans may be seen as preaching to the converted but these safe bases will be covered before any risky moves into AFL heartland.
Unfortunately, the suffering NRL fans in Adelaide and Perth will have to make do with the occasion live NRL game and Foxtel for the fore see able future.
Just like Wellington, the NRL will want to put in years of junior development before they would even consider this sort of move and even then it would probably require the relocation or extinction of an exsisting Sydney team.
Here’s who will not be with us:
The Cronulla Sharks
The sharkies are approximately ten million dollars in debt and the only reason St George bank are still supporting them is because they are land asset rich.
The insular peninsular, as Roy Masters called them, Cronulla are sandwiched between St George and Illawarra. If you believe the rumours, the NRL was none too happy when the Sharks knocked back the NRL offer to move them to the Central Coast.
Ominously, the Sharks’ requests to play home games at the Central Coast were knocked back by the NRL and David Gallop has refused to publicly back Cronulla’s future in the NRL.
So here’s my prediction for the 18 team line up for the 2020 NRL season: 10 NSW teams (8 in Sydney), 6 Qld teams, 1 ACT, 1 NZ.
Brisbane Broncos
Bulldogs
Canberra Raiders
Central Coast Centurions
Central Qld Comets
North Qld Cowboys
Gold Coast Titans
Ipswich Logan Wolves
Melbourne Storm
Newcastle Knights
Parramatta Eels
Penrith Panthers
South Sydney Rabbitohs
St George Illawarra Dragons
Sunshine Coast Sea Eagles
Sydney Roosters
New Zealand Warriors
West Tigers
This expansion prediction is using the assumption that the NRL continues its growth with TV ratings, crowd numbers, and memberships, which should allow for the depth to sustain 18 teams.
Also that we have an independent commission running the game who can make the tough decisions and that News Ltd no longer have NRL co-ownership, allowing for fairer future TV rights deals.
Also that the NRL brings back the reserve grade competition.
I’d be interested in anyone’s opinion on this and where I may have gone wrong. With the NRL growing the way it is, the next ten years or so will be very interesting as we see how the game evolves and shapes itself for a very bright future.
Burgo Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Guest
firstly i must say this is the best forum on NRL expansion ive ever read and there r some great ideas around here. my main views r that my beloved Sea Eagles need upgrades 2 Fortress Brookvale now 2 forever remain Manly-Warringah, the CC Bears and a Ipswich-Logan team r a must in 2013 after the $500 million+ 2012 TV Rights payout over 6 years with an Independent Commission coz they r both RL heartlands and hav great junior development currently in place The IPSWICH-LOGAN JETS should wear mainly Royal Blue 2 attract Newtown fans in Sydney but Yellow and Green 'Vs' 2 represent their own area, the Sharks should relocate 2 WA and add the state colour yellow 2 their jersey just like on their Rnd 23, 2010 jersey but still hav at least 2 games at Toyota Stadium against long time rivals, the rest at ME statium Perth In 2018 and beyond i think the NRL and Govts should assist the bids 4 Central QLD Heat (Rockhampton Red, Yellow), PNG Hunters (Red, Yellow, Black, Port Moresby), South NZ Lions (Yellow and Black, Wellington), Adelaide Rams and Sunshine Coast Falcons but all these teams need a stadium, a Reserve Grade team in either NSW or QLD Cup and a strong management group and financial model like the CC Bears
JB
Guest
It's a no brainer 2013 CC Bears and WA Reds 2018 Wellington and Brisbane2 2023 PNG/Darwin and Adelaide Manly to move to CQ Cronulla to move to Sunshine Coast Sorted! ps Perth is getting nearly 16,000 to games, has a jnr development programme already producing NRL players, is getting a modern stadium (remember it took Storm 12 years to get out of OP!), a strong state body and already has good corproate support (massive sponsorships for our SG Ball side). Perth has to be in next.
Pete
Guest
Its amusing on another thread the Kiwis are saying that the Aussies teams should not be permitted into the NZ provincial cup (Rugby), but the Kiwi leaguies want more teams in the Australian RL comp...
Col The Bear
Guest
it'll be the Bears..no one has been able to secure the millions in a sponsorship deal..it will be the Bears..and this is an on going sponsorship.. signed up for 3 years with an extension for more.. thankyou Mortgage House...no NRL team is going to relocate to Gosford.. so forget about that as well...all the talk over the years that this team is going to relocate or that team will relocate to the CC, never happened and won't only the Bears will.... but it sold a lot of papers..It'll be the Bears.. launching on the 20th of Nov at our Erina office......
Paul C
Guest
Paul J you make sense. NSW Central Coast are certainties ( Bears or no Bears), Brisbane ( West) could handle another side. Central Qld not so sure, does it have the numbers. Perth Reds , we need to get them back into the comp, PNG not so sure. As per the Gold Coast and Melbourne, new clubs need to be assisted in their early days to ensure their success which in turn leads to more dollars for all clubs. Give News the flick and the toothless tiger ARL and have an independent body like the AFL running and regulating the competition. All clubs will get a better deal out of the main money source- broadcast rights. The current sytem involving self interest for News is crook! The ARL is a junket for Geoff Carr and Colin Love (again self interest). Let's get a bit fair dinkum with the greatest game in Australia.
ren
Guest
we have gone to the nrl. we are the third biggest nrl state, getting left out the lasty time was (like so much else around super league) wrong. our local comp is stronger than melbourne and the storm were basically a transplanted, rebadged, debt wiped reds.
ren
Guest
why would we need a 55 thousand seater when not one of the rectangular codes is capable of filling it (barring int'ls) any new large capacity stadium in perth needs football so it has to be a rebuilt subi with retractable seating
col the bear
Guest
Hey Oikee, I would love to see the Perth Reds back as well, as the CC Bears.. but South Qld Jets playing out of Ipswich or toowoomba,is still an option...and I have heard momentum might be building for them... until the day the Bears run out onto Gosford stadium(Bear stadium), or until the day the NRL come out and actually say it officially , the Bears are back in as the 17th team and on the Central Coast, we keep up our fight relentlessly, and continue to do everything right and everything asked of us.. we have had the rug pulled out from under us to many times, we have been dissappointed too many times... but in saying that, the Bears juggernaught is rolling along nicely.. and it is very very hard to stop now.. Nov 6th, Launch date of our new office at Erina, Merchandise, and website..proudly sponsored by Mortgage house... :-)
Col the Bear
Guest
JUST BRING ON THE CENTRAL COAST BEARS...2012 SUITS ME...HELL EVEN NEXT YEAR WILL DO ME... :-)
J
Guest
Melbourne have always had a culture of supporting and watching sport no matter what it is. No doubt now they have a new stadium the Melbourne Storm will get average bigger crowds than most if not all Sydney teams in a few years.
J
Guest
If teams are unsuccessful, they will die naturally or relocate. We don't want to kill ANY teams or else we will just be driving more people away from the NRL.
J
Guest
Yes I agree for the most part. Next 2 teams: CC Bears Perth/WA Reds POSSIBLE Relocations - ie only if the club is on its knees, NEVER forced relocation (teams can maintain their traditional areas, but just expand their supporter base, both the Sharks and Manly are doing this in the following locations already): Sharks > Adelaide Manly> QLD (Manly have been successful on the field recently, but off the field they're still struggling despite their success, and, like Cronulla operate in a small market) Then, when the time is right: 3rd SEQLD (if no one has relocated) 2nd NZ PNG
J
Guest
Expansion is important to improve revenue - sponsors will pay more $$$ if they think more people can see the sport. Expansion will also grow the player base in the long run as kids who would have gone to play Union in NZ or AFL in WA or SA have a choice. We also have so many more players going overseas - more teams mean more $$$ to throw at these players. So, if anything, expansion wil improve the quality in the medium-term. It just needs to be orchastrated wisely.
Crosscoder
Guest
Hate to spell it out,forget Cronulla moving ,now the development has been approved by council and the arrival of the new adminstration,which has shown itself already to be professional,and forward thinking.The debt will be serviced.Their bank St George seems to believe so. It has been zoned residential ,,so the land has increased tenfold in value. The argument thrown up by Masters,that the Sharks are sandwiched between St George Ill is correct but rather hollow. The Roosters(no juniors) and Souths and Manly are also sandwiched landwise.There are Sharks supporters living in the St Geo and Ill area:scoop. if there is /was anything to learn after the SL war,it is not to disenfranchise your grassrooots or supporters.The Sharks have the 3rd biggest juniors in Sydney ,so why the hell should they be absorbed into St George.The juniors wouldn't want it. Gallop has already the NRL does not want to hurt the heartland of rl (Sydney) again in axing clubs.The view the NRL is considering the sharks moving is now nonsense.they have vuoiewd the books and plans(now approved). My view is Perth is a must and the inclusion of the under 18s and the NRL game being played there being so successful crowdwise. Th CC Bears are the other side that must come into the comp in 2013. PNG is way down the line IMO with security concerns,although Joberg SA is hardly a fun place to be at times. After that a Sunshine coast team and a Welllington NZ side.CQld does not have the pop. Down the line,then consider Adelaide and PNG . ,
mushi
Roar Guru
The problem still remains that whilst yes they will have some value those two new wrinkles offer very marginal ratings boosts compared to the value of replacement programmes for the “prime time” games each week and the finals which make up the vast majority of what the Networks are paying for and hence the make up the vast majority of value for the league. The mid day slot on Sunday is the current home of such ratings power houses as the midday movie. Now whilst I’m sure this may lead to Elvis’ grand kids being the innocent victims of the code war as reruns of roustabout and blue Hawaii will now go head to head with live sport this slot holds little value for the networks and as such will provide little value to the NRL in a revenue sense. Then the marginal benefit from getting a live Perth game every second week rather than a delayed gam for a Saturday double header. I would be very interested to see the up tick in the second choice games viewing numbers from getting played live at 9:30 as opposed to on a delay, whilst I recognise that there will be some benefit I think it is very much playing at the margins. These developments do not seem to strike me as representing an additional 8th of the value of the existing arrangement and as such lead to a diminishing average return for each club.
Paul J
Guest
Billo The hard part re expansion is who should relocate or get the punt. Even though South Melbourne & Fitzroy fans have had a very tough time can you say the AFL is worse off with The Sydney Swans & Brisbane Lions? I think the NRL is only seriously considering the future of one Sydney club and that is Cronulla, the only one in deep debt and who is sandwiched between St George & Illawarra. They'll probably demote Cronulla and give CC Bears the 16th license. All the other Sydney clubs will stay regardless of all future expansion plans. And although Cronulla fans will have some tough times with their team demoted to the NSW Cup most NRL fans will feel the NRL will overall be stronger for it.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Even then - they still averaged 51,000+ during the four finals games (that was the year of the infamous blood bath grand final).
Redb
Roar Guru
DOW, Its Ok to be optimistic but you dismiss the AFL's live appeal that has always been present. The VFL/AFL last averaged 16,000 per game in 1945. http://stats.rleague.com/afl/crowds/summary.html Redb
Billo
Guest
You are obviously correct, and of course I take the point about support passing through the generations as they migrate to the outlying parts of the city, but the main point I was making was that footy in Melbourne has a more compact structure focused on the city itself, compared to the more geographically diversifed model you see in Sydney. Melbourne fans' clubs no longer actually play in the suburbs after which they are named, but that isn't true of Sydney. In both cases I think that closing or re-locating clubs is a foolish policy.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
I think the words are, Melbourne has a much better public transport system for getting large crowds in and out of games. If you go to grounds such as Brookvale, WIN stadium, Leichardt Oval, you find that it is bloody difficult to get out of their easily. None of these grounds take much over 20K. With the membership push, which is something AFL has done quite well, we should see some of the teams move to more central grounds like ANZ and the SFS, and repeat what the AFL is doing. AFL may have had the jump start on crowds, but it's not something that can't be changed in the NRL. It's just the culture of the people changing, I am sure the other codes in the Northern States (particularly Soccer), will appreciate that culture change.