Mapping out future NRL expansion

Roar Pro

By Paul J, 29 Sep 2009 The Crowd is a Roar Pro

Tagged:: Brisbane Broncos, Bulldogs, Canberra Raiders, Central Coast Centurions, Central Qld Comets, Gold Coast Titans, Ipswich Logan Wolves, Melbourne Storm, North Qld Cowboys, NRL, Rugby League

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Dallas Johnson from the Storm is spear tackled in the NRL by Gold Coast Titans players AAP Image/Action Photographics/Jeff Crow

With the NRL footy season about to end after this Sunday’s blockbuster between the Eels and Storm, it’s now time for me to try and remember what I do with my time during the off season.

One way to pass the time is to have a look into the future and see what it holds for the NRL, in this case its potential expansion plans.

Here is my guess at which clubs will be lining up for the beginning of the 2020 NRL season.

These predictions may seem reasonable if you have been following media and fan discussions surrounding the matter.

Firstly, here are the new teams:

1. Central Coast team.
Everyone’s prediction for the next cab off the rank. Population of 300 thousand, and they already have the 20,100-seater Bluetongue stadium.

The Central Coast are screaming out for an NRL license, the only real question is whether it will be The Central Coast Bears or a brand new name – for example The Central Coast Centurions.

While the Greg Florimo lead Bears bid has already named a coach in David Farleigh and sponsor in Mortgage House, the NRL will want to use the Gold Coast Titans as a blueprint for all new bids and teams due to their fantastic success.

If the fans in the Central Coast were given the choice between having an extinct Sydney team or having their very own team name and image, it’s hard to see them preferring the Bears.

2. Queensland teams.
With its huge population growth and three current teams all going gangbusters, the NRL will want to give licenses to more Qld teams. This is only logical. The only question is where and who first.

The Central Qld bid is currently considered to be out in front, but this of course can change. They are rugby league fanatics and have a team in the Qld Cup competition.

They would be based in Rockhampton and the only concern is that the population of Central Qld is only 190K.

However, the NRL will look favourably at the Central Coast due to the ongoing support for the North Qld Cowboys, arguably the most loyal supporters of any NRL team.

The NRL can easily forecast Central Qld having the same strong parochial support.

The Sunshine Coast have a population of 312 thousand are they are the 2009 Qld Cup champions in their first year in the competition.

The Sunshine Coast team wear maroon and white, they are the Eagles, and the Sunshine Coast NRL bid have stated although they would prefer their own NRL team they are willing to accept a relocated Sydney team.

So guess where I’m going with this one?

Manly to relocate to the Sunshine Coast.

Many Sydneysiders agree that ten Sydney teams are too many for a 16 or 18 team competition. Manly have done well to fight back from near bankrupcy in the nineties, but they have private ownership who will surely be tempted to relocate to a strong rugby league demographic in Australia’s fastest growing region.

Sea Eagles chief executive Grant Mayer revealed his club’s plans to host NRL games on the Sunshine Coast back in 2008 and don’t forget the NRL’s $8 million relocation package is available for any Sydney club contemplating a move interstate.

The Ipswich/Logan corridor was named by David Gallop as a possible place for a new team.

Brisbane’s South West area’s of Ipswich and Logan are joined by the motorway, have a population of 400K and ironically the Ipswich Jets battled against the Souths Logan Magpies in the 2008 Qld Cup grand final. This would make a fantastic local derby with the Brisbane Broncos and would not affect the Broncos powerful influence in Brisbane.

Here are the definite maybes:

1. The Wellington Orcas
Out-pointed for the 16th license by the Gold Coast Titans (as were the Central Coast Bears) and unfortunatly will probably get out pointed in any future bids as well.

The NRL will need to put in a lot of effort towards junior development in the North Island in particular before giving New Zealand a second NRL team.

2. Papua New Guinea
The only country where rugby league is the number one sport.

For me, the Kumuls were the highlight of the 2008 Rugby League World Cup and you can imagine them being crowd favorites. Although the passion and enthusiasm is obviously there, the infastructure is not.

Mal Maninga has backed a PNG bid for inclusion into the Qld Cup and this is a logical step before the NRL.

PNG, however, is still for the most part a third world country and they will need huge improvements in the country’s infastructure first.

This is a bigger priority than sport.

In saying that, a PNG team in the NRL would be a great achievement and something for the whole country to identify with.

3. Adelaide/Perth
The AFL exhausted all avenues in the southern states before expanding with the new Western Sydney and Gold Coast teams.

Due to weak administration and News Ltd’s involvement, rugby league is at least ten years behind the AFL and has not yet given licenses in the northern states, where they are so obviously wanted.

These northern states expansion plans may be seen as preaching to the converted but these safe bases will be covered before any risky moves into AFL heartland.

Unfortunately, the suffering NRL fans in Adelaide and Perth will have to make do with the occasion live NRL game and Foxtel for the fore see able future.

Just like Wellington, the NRL will want to put in years of junior development before they would even consider this sort of move and even then it would probably require the relocation or extinction of an exsisting Sydney team.

Here’s who will not be with us:

The Cronulla Sharks
The sharkies are approximately ten million dollars in debt and the only reason St George bank are still supporting them is because they are land asset rich.

The insular peninsular, as Roy Masters called them, Cronulla are sandwiched between St George and Illawarra. If you believe the rumours, the NRL was none too happy when the Sharks knocked back the NRL offer to move them to the Central Coast.

Ominously, the Sharks’ requests to play home games at the Central Coast were knocked back by the NRL and David Gallop has refused to publicly back Cronulla’s future in the NRL.

So here’s my prediction for the 18 team line up for the 2020 NRL season: 10 NSW teams (8 in Sydney), 6 Qld teams, 1 ACT, 1 NZ.

Brisbane Broncos
Bulldogs
Canberra Raiders
Central Coast Centurions
Central Qld Comets
North Qld Cowboys
Gold Coast Titans
Ipswich Logan Wolves
Melbourne Storm
Newcastle Knights
Parramatta Eels
Penrith Panthers
South Sydney Rabbitohs
St George Illawarra Dragons
Sunshine Coast Sea Eagles
Sydney Roosters
New Zealand Warriors
West Tigers

This expansion prediction is using the assumption that the NRL continues its growth with TV ratings, crowd numbers, and memberships, which should allow for the depth to sustain 18 teams.

Also that we have an independent commission running the game who can make the tough decisions and that News Ltd no longer have NRL co-ownership, allowing for fairer future TV rights deals.

Also that the NRL brings back the reserve grade competition.

I’d be interested in anyone’s opinion on this and where I may have gone wrong. With the NRL growing the way it is, the next ten years or so will be very interesting as we see how the game evolves and shapes itself for a very bright future.

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The Crowd Says (137) | Page 1 of Comments

OzeToon said | September 29th 2009 @ 6:25am | Report comment

As a sunshine coast based manly fan I would welcome the sea eagles here with open arms obviously. Too much forum talk always leads to this- one major issue we have nothing up here that even resembles a stadium! Just a park with scaffolding seats and no funding

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Jeff Baxter said | September 29th 2009 @ 6:51am | Report comment

The flaw in your thinking about png is twofold: firstly sport is capable of driving development and investment. Secondly waiting could be fatal if for example the afl take a more long term approach and invest now. If rl shows it’s faith and support for png this would be paid back so many times.
Also the need for more competitive international sides is painfully obvious.

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- Siva Samoa said | September 29th 2009 @ 8:29am | Report comment
  
  so ignore all the violence happening in png rugby league and just put a team in the nrl. what about the travelling fans ? a guy who was the head of air new guini airlines got car jack and was almost killed last week. it happens in png everyday and it would happen again. they are not ready for nrl. the passion and finance is there but the rest isn’t. i think the main priority for the arl/nrl is to finally put the national into the NRL.
  
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  - mushi said | September 29th 2009 @ 10:16am | Report comment
    
    Yep if your objective is to find out how much news coverage we can get with the murder of an NRL player then PNG all the way.
    
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  - The knowledge said | September 29th 2009 @ 10:16am | Report comment
    
    Absolutely right. Some people don’t realise that PNG is still very much a 3rd world country. The government have just agreed to put $8.8million dollars towards an NRL team. Where do they get this money from? Is there no better way that the government could be spending that sort of money, especially when they are in so much debt to Australia already? Also, I was wondering why the upcoming Pacific Cup won’t be broadcast from PNG and Steve Mascord said in his blog that it is extremely expensive to mount a telecast from PNG….. how are they meant to mount 10-15 games a year if they enter the NRL? They’ll have to broadcast using smoke signals.
    
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Meni Law said | September 29th 2009 @ 7:46am | Report comment

Problem with your assumptions re the Central Coast is that the Bears do have a lot of support up here, and they did plan to move here as the Central Coast Bears over 10 years ago, Not to mention their contribution and initiation in building the stadium.

Also, did you not hear David Gallop recently state that it makes sense for any Central Coast team to be connected to the North Shore of Sydney, and that they are talking to the Bears people.

Yes it makes sense to look at the Titans blueprint as for bid preperations and ticking the right boxes.

No it does not make sense to ignore the thousands of existing Bears fans, colours, history and marketability ;That would be bloody minded and not much short of shooting yourself in the foot.

Do you think that if the Gold Coast had a foundation team on it’s doorstep with over 100 years proud history, who allready had strong links to the area and had contributed to building the stadioum, and also were keen to get back into the comp, and also had thousands of additional ready to go fans, they would not have adopted them ??

The Bears involvement is one of the main reasons the Central Coast bid has so much appeal.

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- LT80 said | September 29th 2009 @ 12:02pm | Report comment
  
  The reality is that there are not really thousands of Bears fans. It might be fair to say there are thousands of people on internet forums and blogs around the place calling for the Bears to come back….but that doesn’t really amount to much I’m afraid. Talk is so cheap.
  
  If the Bears were getting 3 or 4 thousand people coming to their home games in the NSW Cup each fortnight, that would send a message that would be impossible to ignore.
  
  But most “Bears supporters” will turn up their nose, and say, why would I go to a “reserve grade” game. Poor attitude IMO.
  
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macavity said | September 29th 2009 @ 8:11am | Report comment

If there is a team on the CC, it will be the Bears.

CQ is too small, and Perth has too much going for it to ignore.

I don’t think Manly will relocate – although Sunshine Coast could be ready in 10 years or so.

The latest whispers on the PNG proposal has the team based in Darwin and splitting games between there and PNG. No idea if it would work (or should be tried). PNG is a 3rd world country and a bloody dangerous one at that. I don’t know that many top players would choose to live there (even PNGers)….

There also needs to be another team playing out of Suncorp.

IMO the next 2 admissions will be CC and another Brisbane (out of Suncorp), with Perth and either Sunshine Coast or Wellington to follow in the next round (or by relocation).

The issue there is will the Broncos spit the dummy like they did last time, and will they start their own comp again?

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Pippinu said | September 29th 2009 @ 8:28am | Report comment

“So here’s my prediction for the 18 team line up for the 2020 NRL season: 10 NSW teams (8 in Sydney), 6 Qld teams, 1 ACT, 1 NZ.”

Not wanting ot sound picky – but what about the Storm?

Otherwise, reasonable projections.

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True Tah said | September 29th 2009 @ 8:29am | Report comment

I can only agree that there is a clear advantage for the Central Coast team to be called the Bears with traditional colours, there would be thousands of Bears supporters like myself who would be integrated back into the NRL.

There is no way a PNG side will be in the NRL, I think it would be best to have the infrastructure first and then consider a side.

Wellington, there is not enough support there for a team.

Perth, the Force have probably stolen a lot of the potential market here, and it is only a small market.

Central Coast and Central Queensland/Sunshine Coast.

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oikee said | September 29th 2009 @ 8:54am | Report comment

There should only be 2 expansion teams come 2013, Wellington and The Bears. Wellington has a stadium and is a must for NZ rugby league to galvanise NZ strength for future world cups, Bears have a stadium, a must. Perth should only have a team when their government builds a world-class stadium that can hold min, 55 thousand. So the Rabbits will continue to take games to Perth, but until they build a decent stadium, no Perth.

Manly will eventually end up playing games between Manly and the Sunshine coast. The sharks will continue to play in Aderlaide, once again, no team until decent stadium built. So Queensland wont have any new teams because their is no stadium for them, only Suncorp. And Ipswich would be a risk expecting their supporters to travel to Suncorp for games against out of town teams. PNG, needs plenty of work before they are ready, thats a future dream for them, see how they go. Central Queensland dont have a stadium, so no to them unless the government invests in a stadium up there.

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- Working Class Rugger said | September 29th 2009 @ 1:50pm | Report comment
  
  Oikee
  
  So then Perth will never have a NRL team according to your criteria. The WA Govt has already committed to upgrading Member’s Equity Stadium at a cost of $160 million and that will be only a 27.000 seater at best. Temporary seating could hit somewhere between 30 to 35,000. The next likely Staduim project will be a refurb of Subiaco Oval. And that’s a rubbish ground to watch any rectangular field sport.
  
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  - oikee said | September 29th 2009 @ 2:29pm | Report comment
    
    If Perth want to become a real city, and not just a AFL layabout then thats fine. If they are to be taken seriously, then they had better invest in a bigger stadium. It will put them on the map. Its up to their government. I dont make the decisions, but they only have to look at Melbourne and what they have done to attrack the top sporting events to know that the rectangle codes are the way to make money for your city. So no, no ground no world presence, they can stay stagnent for all i care. Put me in charge, i will put Perth on the map.
    
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    - Working Class Rugger said | September 29th 2009 @ 2:41pm | Report comment
      
      Oikee
      
      You don’t know anything about the WA Govt. In terms of sports they are blinkered by the WAFC (West Australian Football Commission). They are only going ahead with the ME redevelopment to be seen as actually doing something for other sports. As for World Class facilities. There was a plan for a 80,000 seater multi-Purpose Stadium at a cost of $1 billion. But the GFC and change pf Govt put pay to that.
      
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- ren said | October 4th 2009 @ 11:34am | Report comment
  
  why would we need a 55 thousand seater when not one of the rectangular codes is capable of filling it (barring int’ls)
  any new large capacity stadium in perth needs football so it has to be a rebuilt subi with retractable seating
  
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The Link said | September 29th 2009 @ 9:11am | Report comment

Can’t see Manly moving to the Sunshine Coast. If they aren’t successful in upgrading Brookvale then some games may go up there each year but it won’t be a wholesale move.

Next expansion teams will be;

1. Central Coast Bears – will in a lot of ways go towards mending the broken mess of Super League. It may not be the no.1 move for TV dollars, but Rugby League will get back its heart.
2. WA Reds – RL needs to get back to what it started in 95. Yes the Force are there now, but as long as China continue to buy what we dig out of the ground, Perth will continue to grow as a city and there is a market there.
3. Redcillfe Dolphins or Sunshine Coast – to keep the momentum in QLD going and cement RL’s No.1 position.
4. Wellington Orcas – RL must expand to grow in NZ, but the infrastructure must be repaired.
5. PNG Kummuls – I like the idea of basing them out of Darwin first, but this is a long way away.

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- Dogs Of War said | September 29th 2009 @ 9:44am | Report comment
  
  I could probably see the Sharks moving to the Sunshine Coast before Manly get into that sort of position. Cronulla without a major sponsor would struggle to be able to field a team, especially if they have another poor year on the field. Their development is still many years away from producing the money they hope will secure their future, while a move to the Sunshine Coast could fix most of their problems immediately.
  
  It would be great if the NRL could help Manly hit up the NSW Govt to get an upgrade to the stadium they have, as it is long overdue.
  
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The knowledge said | September 29th 2009 @ 9:51am | Report comment

You say that Wellington needs to show more development before it get’s an NRL franchise and you even put it in the same category as AFL mad Adelaide!? Here’s a list of Wellington bred Rugby League players, some have had to switch to Rugby Union due to the lack of options if they don’t get picked up by another NRL scout.

Sika Manu
Sam Tagataese
Adam Blair
Arana Taumata
Simon Mannering
Ben Matulino
Alehana Mara
Paul Whatuira
Piri Weepu
Tana Umaga
Jerry Collins
Earl Va’a
Rangi Chase
Weller Hauraki
Karl Filiga
Joseph Tomane

Do you still think that Wellington need to improve their local development? Seriously, they have the strongest Junior League club in NZ, the Wainuiomata Lions and no, I’m not from Wellington, I just don’t want to see a 10th ‘Sydney’ club added when there are other areas outside of NSW that need a fair go.

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- True Tah said | September 29th 2009 @ 1:58pm | Report comment
  
  Mannering was a rugby union player who represented NZ at a rep level within his first season of playing league.
  
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- Siva Samoa said | September 29th 2009 @ 2:31pm | Report comment
  
  Sam Tagataese, Piri Wheepu and Jerry Collins were all playing rugby union at juniors and made the Wellington junior reps. Wheepu captain the Te Aute College 1st XV. Joseph Tamane played most of his union and league in Brisbane.
  
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  - The Link said | September 30th 2009 @ 10:32am | Report comment
    
    The knowledge – that’s a fair production line and adds to the attraction of an Orcas bid being successful sometime in the next 10 years. My point is more on the government run SPARC review of RL in NZ which recommneded a complete overhaul of how RL is run in NZ. If the government review provides a similar impetus as the Crawford report into Football in Australia then RL in NZ will be much the better for it. NZRL needs to get its house in order first before having another NRL side – it will happen sometime in the future though.
    
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- Pete said | October 28th 2009 @ 8:03pm | Report comment
  
  Its amusing on another thread the Kiwis are saying that the Aussies teams should not be permitted into the NZ provincial cup (Rugby), but the Kiwi leaguies want more teams in the Australian RL comp…
  
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Rodney McDonell said | September 29th 2009 @ 10:24am | Report comment

I think the CC will love the bears and with the Bears playing 2 games a year in North Sydney it should provide an added team in the north for people to go and see. The bears will be in without a doubt.

I think moving the Sharks to Adelaide is a good fit. I’ve always thought this, but recently i learnt that when port power were entering into the AFL it was put to a vote to the fans what their moniker would be: Sharks come out second to “Power”.

Perth have also been doing well with their bid and deserve to be in the NRL if they have the financial backing to do so – This will be hard as they’re traveling will incur a hefty price.

NZ need another team. We’ve seen how much NZ get behind the warriors when they’re successful. Another NZ team will make the NRL rights worthy double the amount they are already. Rugby is suffering from it’s poor quality atm and if there was ever a time to strike while the iron is hot, now is the time. I propose the Cantabury Bulls as a brilliant addition to the NRL.

I like the idea of Mainly to the Sunshine coast, but where this will happen i’m not sure. I did hear that Pen does want to invest in a team on the SSC, but whether he will move his beloved mainly remains to be seen. I dont mind the relocation of Sydney teams because the fact is they will still be playing around 30% of their games in and around Sydney so their fans should still be able to get out tehre and support their team.

Mainly -> Sunshine Coast
Sharks -> Adelaide
+ Perth
+ CC Bears

That would give us 18 teams. We’d have the major states of Australia covered.

The by around 2018, we can go to South West QLD with a 5th QLD team and then Cantabury Bulls (NZ)

A 20 teams competition is more than right for the NRL. If the AFL can have an 18 team competition with the amount of players they have in each team, then the NRL could as easily have a 22 team competition when the time is riight given our much larger player base and cost of running games far less than the AFL.

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- Robbo said | September 29th 2009 @ 7:21pm | Report comment
  
  I don’t agree with going to Christchurch. The Crusaders are the worlds best Rugby Union team (and have been for some 10 years) in a Union mad country and they still battle to get a crowd over 12,000. Wellington have shown with the A-League and Union that they get behind a team.
  
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- J said | October 2nd 2009 @ 3:32pm | Report comment
  
  Yes I agree for the most part.
  
  Next 2 teams:
  
  CC Bears
  Perth/WA Reds
  
  POSSIBLE Relocations – ie only if the club is on its knees, NEVER forced relocation (teams can maintain their traditional areas, but just expand their supporter base, both the Sharks and Manly are doing this in the following locations already):
  
  Sharks > Adelaide
  Manly> QLD (Manly have been successful on the field recently, but off the field they’re still struggling despite their success, and, like Cronulla operate in a small market)
  
  Then, when the time is right:
  
  3rd SEQLD (if no one has relocated)
  2nd NZ
  PNG
  
  Reply