Karmichael Hunt of Gold Coast in action during the VFL Round 09 match between the Coburg Tigers and Gold Coast at Highgate Recreation Reserve, Melbourne. Slattery Images
Success in the sporting landscape can be measured in many ways. Whether its membership numbers, attendance figures or premierships, it all depends on your opinion of what defines success.
Collingwood have the largest supporter base in the AFL, setting an all-time record with 57,408 members in 2010. They also average the highest attendances, but in regards to on-field success, Collingwood has only won one premiership in the past 50 years.
Carlton can claim to be the most successful club in AFL history who along with Essendon has a total of 16 Premierships. Over the last ten years, Carlton has also ‘won’ the wooden spoon three times, so do we still judge Carlton a success despite recent years of failure?
If the question was asked which teams are considered the most successful in the past decade, Brisbane and Geelong would immediately come to mind. Brisbane managed to win three consecutive premierships between 2001 and 2003.
Geelong has featured in the last three Grand Finals, winning two premierships.
During this same period, Port Adelaide had a top four finish in five of those years, were minor Premiers for three consecutive years, Runners-up in 2007, and Premiers in 2004. But how well will their success be measured, particularly compared to Brisbane and Geelong, when they have only one premiership to their name during this time?
This brings us to the Gold Coast Suns.
Next year in the 2011 AFL season, the Gold Coast Suns will enter the competition.
The AFL has suffered criticism regarding the decision to hand the Gold Coast the competitions 17th license.
Majority of the football public favoured, and still do favour, Tasmania as the more deserving and logical choice for any expansion. The AFL however was determined on the Gold Coast and thus began the establishment of the Gold Coast Suns.
Entering a competition and trying to be competitive is difficult for any new team, so concessions should be expected. But the generous concessions awarded to the Gold Coast, is something that has not been seen before.
In the 2010 Draft, Gold Coast will receive picks 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13 and 15 in the first round, as well as having access to one uncontracted player from each of the 16 other clubs.
There are still many unknowns about the Gold Coast. Which players will they sign? What crowd numbers can we expect? How many games will they win next year?
One thing that is guaranteed however is that no matter what the answer to these questions, the Gold Coast Suns will be a success. The AFL has all but assured this.
The team could, and probably should finish the year in the top half of the ladder. Crowds could be anywhere between 10,000 and 20,000. Managing both of these will be a great feat.
However, even if crowds are low, and wins are hard to come by, the clubs ability to snare highly rated players such as Campbell Brown, Nathan Bock, and if as expected Gary Ablett, then the team can claim success anyway.
If desperate for a claim, the mere mention of the Suns in the media in an NRL-loving city will be enough for the AFL to declare the team a success.
The AFL has given every advantage possible to the Gold Coast to ensure that no matter which way you judge them, the team will be considered successful. All so the AFL can justify itself.
Good luck next year to anyone trying to criticise the AFL’s decision to bring in the Gold Coast, when the AFL have made it impossible for the team to be anything but successful.
Winning an AFL premiership is not easy, and is certainly not handed to you on a silver platter. Unless it seems you are the Gold Coast. It would appear a premiership is now theirs to lose.
So in the next few years, if the Gold Coast is there that last day in September holding the premiership, at least try to act surprised.
TammyS
Guest
Dont worry Anthony, the loss will just make the titans and their fans more hungry come next year
extreme13
Roar Rookie
What's NSW got to do with QLD crowds though, why not compare the Lions crowds to the 3 NRL sides in QLD?
Anthony
Guest
QLD an NRL dominated state? Lions averaged 27,000......higher than all Sydney NRL clubs :-)
Anthony
Guest
The Titans have done their bit for the Suns by failing in the Prelim Final....so much for Searle's boast that the AFL would be drowned out when they won the NRL GF!!!!
Kurt
Roar Pro
Cumulative capital city TV viewing for 2010 AFL/NRL finals to date: AFL - 3 weeks, 8 games: 8,571,000 (av 1,071,375) NRL - 2 weeks, 6 games: 4,389,000 (av 731,500) Note: Does not include regional viewing figures.
beaver fever
Guest
Agree it's possibly even, although ratings for SA, WA Tas, NT couuld be higher (as RL in country), but when you add length of game, advertising oppurtunities in, and of course the metro figures the AFL IMO comes out on top. (hence higher TV contract) Interesting to note that even some professional media companys are not adding the 10 and 1 figures together for the ratings.
Whites
Guest
Interesting to note the vast void at the edge of the capital cities where not soul lives. Interesting to note that the ratings for Tasmania and regional WA and SA are not available. If they were available and had the same percentage of viewership as Melbourne there would be at most an extra 100-150k viewers. Interesting to note that the NRL Finals started a week after the AFL Finals hence a WEEK 2 to WEEK 2 comparison. Interesting to note that is an overestimate for SF1 and that it most likely had lower regional ratings. Also interesting to note is that outside of NSW and QLD the NRL games were shown after 11.30pm while the AFL games were live or slightly delayed nationwide. It all adds up to say that viewership of the NRL and AFL is pretty even.
Redb
Roar Guru
Yep, the regional TV ratings are both irrelevant to TV rights $ and not complete anyway. The 5 capital city market is the one that counts.
Andyroo
Guest
Also interesting to note that you have compared the RL from 10/11 sept to the AF on 17/18 sept. Because that is week 2 of finals compared to week 2 of finals. You wouldn't compare a grand final to a semi final would you?
beaver fever
Guest
Also interesting to note that not one RL game made in into the top 40 for metro ratings. Also interesting to note that regional ratings from WA, SA and Tas are not included. Also interesting to note that you have compared the RL from 10/11 sept to the AF on 17/18 sept. Also interesting to note your guesstimates for regional figures.
Whites
Guest
Ratings for the AFL Finals have been lower then the NRL finals this year. It will be interesting to see the week 3 NRL to week 3 AFL ratings after this weekend. Week 2 AFL Finals 10-11 Sep Second semi-final FRI (Geelong v Fremantle) TV Ratings:(5CityMetro-1,053,000) + (4AggregatedRegional-200,000) = 1,253,000 First semi-final SAT (Western Bulldogs v Sydney) TV Ratings:(5CityMetro(10+ONE)-1,081,000) + (4AggregatedRegional-250,000estimate) = 1,331,000 This game did not make the regional or national top 40 for its main channel 10 broadcast. The 250,000 regional estimate is the maximum it could have had to fall just outside the top 40 nationwide. vs Week 2 NRL Finals 17-18 Sep Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers FRI TV Ratings:(5CityMetro-942,000) + (4AggregatedRegional-642,000) = 1,584,000 Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers SAT TV Ratings:(5CityMetro-852,000) + (4AggregatedRegional-516,000) = 1,368,000 Notes -4 Aggregated Regional=SouthernNSW, NorthernNSW, Regional VIC and Regional QLD(TAS not available therefore inclusion of Tasmania may add 50,000-100,000 to the AFL numbers). -This is preliminary data only based on overnights. Overnight ratings are preliminary figures which combine Live and As Live viewing. Preliminary in that they do not include 7 day time-shifted viewing. -Depending on location, these games were broadcast live, slightly delayed or delayed by several hours. Sources thinktv.com.au tvtonight.com.au
Whites
Guest
Yes. Scandals in the NRL have done so much damage over the last few years.
FuLLy LoAdED MaN
Guest
Well if they do the away team will wear their "away" or "clash" strip.
PG
Guest
Just a tangent thought FLM but dont the Suns and Lions colours clash?
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Jay I look forward to reading your thoughts on that point.
Kurt
Roar Pro
Cumulative capital city TV viewing for 2009 / 2010 AFL home and away seasons. 2009 - 61,968,000 2010 - 71,312,000 Year on year increase: 15% Source: OzTAM 5 city TV audience ratings
jimbo
Roar Guru
Except that AFL TV ratings have fallen dramatically this year especially in Sydney. And 7 and 10 paid too much for their last TV rights deal, didn't make enough profit and are reluctant to pay any more next time.
Punter
Guest
What will play into the hands of AFL on the Coast even more is the MAJOR betting scandal brewing in NRL with MAJOR players involved. On top of this, the soccer team is finished. Everything is falling into place for the Suns before they even play their first game next March.
Jay
Guest
If you were a player offered $100k+ more to move to the gold coast, less media pressure and a better lifestyle... im sure its a hard decision. For all that the Suns brand has done - its more the lifestyle that is attracting players. Whether GWS has the same lure is another question in itself - but as a leaguie, i've come around to accept that team GWS will be a huge success and will have better crowd attendances than Parra and Penrith... once i get a chance, ill post an article explainig why.
Brian
Guest
Its all about marketing and so yes the Suns will be a success. Even if crowds are 10,000 and they come last the AFL willpoint to mentioning of them in the GC press as "success". When your that big as the AFL has become you always get the stage to justify yourself. This is no different to every Olympics or World Cups which organisers invariably hail as success. We'll never know exactly how many millions are lost up there so of course it will be a success.