Thanks in part to Brisbane’s dominance in the early part of the decade, six seasons had passed since a Victorian side had won the AFL premiership.
AFL followers in the self-described “home of football” wondered how long it would be before one of their own would break the stranglehold of the non-Victorian sides.
They need not have worried.
The four seasons since West Coast won the 2006 premiership over Sydney have been dominated by Victorian teams. In the past three seasons no non-Victorian side has made even a preliminary final.
Last year, only two of the six non-Victorian sides made the finals (Fremantle and Sydney), with both teams falling in the second week.
The pressing question for those outside Victoria is which will be the first non-Victorian side to challenge for the premiership over the next few years?
Adelaide Crows
The Crows were the big let down of season 2010. After finishing the 2009 season with a flurry of wins and missing out on a preliminary final berth by less than a goal, big things were expected last year.
To the dismay of their supporters, the Crows started the year with six straight losses and their season was effectively done and dusted. The Crows may be best served by rebuilding their list over the next few years, with veterans Brett Burton, Simon Goodwin, Andrew McLeod and Tyson Edwards all retiring at the end of last season.
Brisbane Lions
Many have picked the Lions to finish with the wooden spoon this season, and it is difficult to see the Lions getting anywhere near finals football for some time.
Jonathan Brown’s body has been battered over the years, Luke Power and Simon Black have been workhorses in the engine room for the Lions, but they are also in the twilight of their careers. With last season’s best-and-fairest winner Michael Rischitelli joining the Gold Coast side this season and key forward Brendan Fevola sacked last month, it will be a long time before the Lions see September action again.
Fremantle Dockers
The one shining light for the non-Victorian sides last year, the Dockers were set to challenge for a top four spot until Michael Barlow broke his leg mid-season.
The Dockers will rely too heavily on their big three of Sandilands, Pavlich and Barlow to match the best Victorian sides this season, although they have several promising younger players who could help the Dockers challenge for silverware within the next three to five years.
Port Adelaide Power
The Power had a late-season resurgence last year after the club parted ways with premiership coach Mark Williams midway through the year.
Like Fremantle, the Power has plenty of promising youngsters, but Port Adelaide lack the gun players required to make serious in-roads against the big Victorian teams.
Sydney Swans
The Swans won the premiership in 2005, and did better than many expected last season by making it to the second week of the finals. New coach John Longmire will want to put his stamp on the side after being assistant coach to Paul Roos for the past three years.
The Swans rely heavily on dual Brownlow medallist Adam Goodes, and though they are the perennial over-achievers of the league, they look unlikely to win a premiership any time soon.
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles “won” their first wooden spoon in the club’s history last season, and the poor general skill level of the Eagles players suggests they will remain anchored towards the bottom of the ladder for several years. How far the mighty have fallen since their 2006 premiership.
Gold Coast Suns/Greater Western Sydney Giants
Given the poor standing of the six current non-Victorian sides, there is a very real chance that the next premiership won by a non-Victorian side will go to one of the new franchises entering the AFL over the next two years.
With a host of early draft picks and salary cap concessions, it is possible that either the Gold Coast or Greater Western Sydney will challenge for a flag in their first five years in the competition.
When running the ruler of the non-Victorian sides, it is difficult to find any of the other six that are likely to challenge in that timeframe. How the wheel has turned.
Jenson
Guest
so where's the Eagles now? Still anchored at the bottom of sitting second ? ;)
amazonfan
Roar Guru
I have to say that it has never crossed my mind how successful, or otherwise, Victorian clubs are. The fact that no Victorian club made the GF in 2004-2006 was (mostly) of no consequence to me. I barrack for Melbourne, and if Melbourne doesn't make the GF, I don't really care who does. I don't have any allegance to Victorian football beyond my support for the Demons; as a matter of fact, WCE is my second favourite club.
Jaredsbro
Roar Guru
Lol! Firstly, it's so funny how some of you hardcore fans are picking Fremantle to ever win a premiership. Anyone know of a team called the LA Clippers. Now they aren't entirely analogous, but there are always teams that never win in a league. It seems to be sporting physics or something and no amount of Drafting and Suturing teams together can change that. But if you think Fremantle can win please give sufficient evidence, rather than sentimental or nostalgic considerations etc Secondly: why is it that all of a sudden non-Vic teams seem to all be struggling at the same time? In my opinion it may well be connected to this two-clubs per town thing, but obviously seeing as there's not too many examples in world sport of two-team towns being evenly spread around an entire league, so there's not much evidence either way. I know it does happen, but how could teams let it happen...that you've got a dynastic force like Brisbane who were always winning and then suddenly they can't win ever again? Just a few interesting questions from an interested spectator...and an invested spectator as what's good for Australia's largest sporting code is good for Australia's sporting endeavours more generally!
TCunbeliever
Roar Guru
Unfortunately both Lions and Eagles look to be spending 2011 trying to avoid the spoon, which is a shame. But the Lions definately have some good talented kids, it's just their coach i am worried about. Sydney are unpredictable. I expect that they'll make the 8, but can't see them threatening Collingwood any time soon. They do have some top-quality players on their list, and if they all stay fit and fire they could be top-4.. The Dockers are a bit of a mystery as well.. They looked destined for a top 4 spot in 2010, and only just missed out.. You'd like to think a youthful team like the Dockers have improved over the off-season and will be a big challenger, but you sure wouldn't bet on it.. They may not even make the 8. Adelaide should be disgusted with the way they threw away their season in 2010 and should come out breathing fire and stamping their mark on the competition. They have a lot of talent, but can their coach keep them motivated? Suns will challenge, but not for another 3 years.. It is entirely possible, however that the 2012 GF will be played between either Fremantle and Sydney or Fremantle and Adelaide. Of the top sides in 2010, Geelong, the Bulldogs and St Kilda should start sliding down the ladder, and that should provide opportunities for seams like the Crows, Dockers, and Swans to cement a place in the 8 in 2011, however they'll have to watch out for the Hawks and Blues as well..
Australian Football
Guest
I think the best out of them will be Sydney and Fremantle who will be pressing the top 4. West Coast and Brisbane won't make the top 8 and Brisbane are a good chance of coming last, in many peoples eyes. Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Adelaide, might make top 8 but will be around that area. As for the coming years, Gold Coast will be up there and as will the Adelaide teams, with there talented younger players. Fremantle look to be up there for the next coming years, might even win there first premiership. Sydney have some good talented younger players coming through and are traditionally good with breading young players and recycling used players. Brisbane have a lot more money now that they got rid of Fevola and will be spending it in the offseason, so they'll be pushing up there in the coming years. West Coast look to be coming along nicely and could be a chance of the top 8 soon. 2017 Grand Final - Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants.
Australian Football, Australians Game
Guest
I think sydney will be pressing on the top 4 this year and so will fremantle, unless they both suffer badly by injuries. West Coast will be moving up in the coming years. Brisbane will come last, but with fevola gone they will have a lot of money at the end of the year for future development. The Adelaide teams will be pushing for top 8 and around there, both have good young players coming through. Gold Coast will go pretty good might make top 8. 2017 Grand Final - Gold Coast vs Greater Western Sydney. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
RedOrDead
Roar Guru
What about the Swans?? Didn't they SMASH the Suns on the weekend????? Go Swanniessss!!!!!!!!! :-)))))
OzFootballSherrin
Roar Pro
Hawthorn........ go the Tassie Hawks.........the thorny Launie Thawks......
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
Adelaide are the great unknown, and I think the side could go either way. Injury to Tippett from practice match will hurt, as will speculation of Taylor Walker moving to GWS. Walker has been in excellent form in the pre-season. Last year was the first season that the Crows missed the finals since Neil Craig took over. Hard to pick which way the side will go this year.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
I'd forgotten about that promo, good memory James! A quick search of Wikipedia makes me think it must have been the 2003 AFL season, when all six non-Victorian sides made the finals. I think that the vision of all the state premiers sitting arond playing cards was before the first finals match that year between Freo and the Bombers, although I can't be sure.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
Maybe I am selling the Swans a bit short Rich Daddy. More than any other side in the AFL, the Swans as a team are more than just the sum of their parts. As a collection of individual players the Sydney list looks middle of the road, but the side consistently out-performs expectations, which is a credit to the whole club, and all involved. I think Bradshaw will struggle to stay fit this year, and the Swans will rely too heavily on Goodes. Having said that, it would be great if the side proved me wrong and they pushed for a top four spot this year... I just can't see it happening.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
If you were framing a betting market on which of the non-Victorian sides will be next to win the AFL Premiership, I would have the Suns at second favourite, after Fremantle.
Michael Green
Guest
Yeah the Swans may have been sold short. They're a little of an unknown after finishing reasonably well last year. And yes, the Suns?!
Koops
Roar Rookie
Freo and Sydney, with Freo top 4 no doubt, Stdney plays really tough, uncompromising footy, and will go the distance, but lacks the class to finish. Freo has much more flair, and may even make the GF, but lets face it, unless Collingwood has a incredible run of injuries, or the St Kilda girl gets on the wrong tram and ends up at the wrong ground !!, the Collingwood is a shoe in.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
Maybe I'm one eyed but I think you may have sold the swans short. They made it to the second week of the finals when several key players had extended periods on the sideline (Seaby, Bradshaw, Bolton, McGlynn). They were missing two key defenders in their narrow loss to the Bulldogs and an underdone Bradshaw. Dan Hanneberry also won Rising star last year Lack of depth has always been Sydney's problem but if they keep their starting 22 fit, they will threaten.
Redb
Roar Guru
Freo for mine, agree Sandilands is set for a big year. Just got to keep their players fit.
The Phantom
Guest
What about the Suns?????
Mattay
Guest
I'm a crows fan so naturally biased, but I believe the rebuilding has been going on for a few years. A lot of their kids have been flying under the radar, and while Dangerfield, Otten, Tippett and Walker have garnered attention, blokes like Sloan and McKernan are ready to burst. Sloan especially has big things expected of him. Crows could go either way. I think their forward line (if they can hold off GWS's interest in Walker) will set the benchmark in a few years. The injury to Callinan is disappointing. You might say "Who?" but the rookie seemed to fill in a nice piece of the puzzle, a small forward who could contribute directly or indirectly 3 or 4 goals a game. Sorry to use a cliche, but getting Knights back from injury will be like a new signing. I'm not expecting great things expect to see some players develop and become household names by seasons end. 2012 could be a good year!
JamesP
Guest
Good article. I remember watching a finals game from about 4 or 5 years back. Think it was on Channel 10 and the telecast started with all the state premiers in a room playing cards and seeing who would draw the short straw (so to speak). Everyone at the time was lamenting the death of Victorian football. For mine, I would say Fremantle will be the top challenger this year, followed closely by the always underated Swans.
Michael Green
Guest
The Crows were massively disappointing early last year with essentially the same side as the year before. A few of the older brigade held the team together and it must have come down to a lack of experience that caused the inconsistencies. Last week I would have liked their chances a little more, after the injury to Tippet I fear they will do little after making the eight.