England and Scotland go head to head tomorrow at 5:30pm in a must-win for the Scots who have given Argentina the leap in the race for likely runner-up behind England. I’ve analysed the player vs player positions to work out if the Scots have a chance.
1. Matt Stevens vs. Allan Jacobsen: The loss of Andrew Sheridan was a blow to England, but the confidence they have in the remaining props is clear as he was replaced by a back-rower.
Stevens has given away far too many penalties to date, but has vowed to eliminate this habit in the remainder of the tournament.
As with many of Scotland’s forwards Jacobsen is underrated, however, a hungry Stevens should win through. Edge: England
2. Steve Thompson vs. Ross Ford: Relatively even, but Ford’s discipline wins out as Thompson’s propensity to be in the way and give away foolish penalties detracts from his more destructive play in both the tight and loose. Edge: Scotland
3. Dan Cole vs. Euan Murray: Luckily for Scotland the game is not on a Sunday. Not many people can get away with refusing to turn up to work one day a week because of their beliefs, and if I was part of the Scotland set up I would be pretty unimpressed by someone who did.
That said Euan Murray is an excellent operator especially at scrum time. Dan Cole has not been as prominent as England would have liked so far in the tournament, but expect him to rise to the challenge. Edge: Even
4. Courtney Lawes vs. Alastair Kellock: The Scottish Captain returns to add leadership up front, however the loss of Hamilton’s physicality could be telling. Lawes provides big carries and is abrasive all over the park, expect a big game from the English tyro as he tries to make up for the earlier suspension. Edge: Even
5. Louis Deacon vs. Richie Gray: Deacon is a big favourite of Martin Johnson’s and is very solid. Nothing more. Personally I think Tom Palmer is the better player. Richie Gray is a rising star and future British and Irish Lion. Immense in the lineout and prominent in the loose. Edge: Scotland
6. Tom Croft vs. Alastair Strokosh: Two very different players. Croft a master of the lineout, and blessed with bags of pace, relishes the open expanses and a high tempo. Strokosh operates closer to the ruck, is physical and won’t let you down. On a wet day give me Strokosh, if it is dry Croft. Edge: England (mainly thanks to Croft’s edge in the line out)
7. Lewis Moody vs. John Barclay: Barclay is a key ball winner for Scotland.Iif England cannot nullify him, they may find themselves on the wrong end of the refs whistle (again). Moody is searching for form and will give 110% at all times. He is not a natural fetcher though and will have his work cut out. Edge: Scotland
8. James Haskell vs. Richie Vernon: The injury to Nick Easter has been a blessing in disguise for England. Haskell has been their top performer up front, adding physicality and dynamism to their forward play. Vernon is relatively new to the international scene and will need to be on top of his game to match the England’s form player. Edge: England
9. Ben Youngs vs. Mike Blair: Youngs return from injury came just in time for England. His pace and speed of thought add an additional threat to their attacking options. Blair is very solid, has excellent distribution and kicking game. This will relieve the pressure of the young no. 10 Edge: Even
10. Ruaridh Jackson vs. Jonny Wilkinson: Both sides have made difficult decisions at 10. England opting for Old Faithful Jonny, Scotland conversely picking the young Jackson. Wilkinson looks to have upped his game in the last week and his experience of the big occasion is invaluable. Jackson is a better choice than Parks, but can he handle the pressure? Edge: England
11. Delon Armitage vs. Simon Danielli: A little surprised that England opted for Armitage, but he has shown good form in the earlier games, consistently crossing the gain line.
Danielli a big unit, but offers little in terms of guile. Expect him to be used to carry the ball up regularly, in attempt to create room for Ansbro, Evans and Paterson. Edge: Even
12. Mike Tindall vs. Sean Lamont: Tindall has lost much of his pace in recent years, but is every bit the defender he always has been, which is fortunate as Lamont will test him on Saturday.
Although he is playing out of position Andy Robinson has elected to get his best players on the park, and full credit to him for doing so. Defence is the key for Lamont, as England will look to exploit his lack experience at 12, mainly using Tuilagi. Edge: Even
13. Manu Tuilagi vs. Joe Ansbro: Tuilagi, is a real handful, cutting great lines and showing surprisingly good distribution. Look for him to be sent down the 12/13 channel on a variety of angles to test the Scottish centres, before being used as more of a decoy as Ashton and Armitage are brought into the game.
Ansbro is quick, and a good clever attacker, but he may find defence is his major task here. Edge: England
14. Chris Ashton vs. Max Evans: Ashton has hit form again, and is arguably the premier finisher in the world game (apologies to Clerc, Habana etc).
Max Evans is the most creative of the Scottish backs, who might be better deployed at 13. Doesn’t have the express pace or killer instinct of his opposite number. Edge: England
15. Ben Foden vs. Chris Paterson: Paterson, presumably picked for his goal kicking as he lacks the attacking threat of Rory Lamont. Foden has yet to hit the level he is capable in this campaign, but has shown he has grown in stature under the high ball and is still lethal in space. Edge: England
Final Score: England 9.5 – 5.5 Scotland.
Verdict: England should win, and if the weather is fine they will. Look for Scotland to raise their game on the day and leave it all out on the field. Unfortunately for them, their lack of cutting edge and creativity will be their downfall.
Derm
Roar Guru
Coached by an Irishman, no less. A sweet, sweet victory for Michael Bradley - well deserved.
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
Edinburgh have just beaten last season's champions Munster 29-14. As an England supporter, I hope that's not an omen.
Viscount Crouchback
Guest
Ross "Invisible Man" Ford over Thompson? I think not. Kellock even with Lawes? The Scotsman wouldn't even make the England Saxons. Ditto for Mike Blair.
ScotandProud
Guest
Well the rain is falling and the mountains llok pretty dreek but come tomorrow me and my old man will get up to watch the game in our liitle corner of Northern Scotland and cheer on the boys. My head thinks England. Especially their backs - it's always us their star players have a field day against. Not sure about the back row, not sure about Strokosch, Barclay's had a bad tournament so far and Vernon is a newbie. Have to say Haskell is over rated. He's top heavy and he can't drop his weight down through his legs, rather he bends from his waist with straight legs. Against better players like NZ or Heaslip he gets shown up. Watch the training clips of him on youtube: all his strength is in his upper body. Even if he walks it against us I don't rate him. Nah any one of Scotland's great back rows could make a difference but I'm not sure about this one. England and Tuilagi will have a belter. I so hope I'm wrong about that...
Nashi
Guest
"Luckily for Scotland the game is not on a Sunday. Not many people can get away with refusing to turn up to work one day a week because of their beliefs, and if I was part of the Scotland set up I would be pretty unimpressed by someone who did." Perhaps you should take this up with Michael Jones who, from my recollection as a boy, I remember sitting out the Sunday games. He would be one of "those people". Is there a more respected man in rugby? I may not agree with someone's beliefs but I respect their right to practice them.
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Interesting read. I think this will be an enthralling clash with much depending on the interpretation of the scrum and breakdown potentially deciding the victor. England does not have a genuine 7, Croft and Moody are excellent back row forwards but not genuine scavangers like John Barclay or his back up Ross Rennie which you pointed out.Scotland could find advantage here.Scotland have nothing to fear of England, but should be realistic that they will not outplay the English backs. However by playing a smart field position and choosing to be direct and tight that will draw the English into a scrap where they have given many penalities away before.
ElsomsEgo
Guest
Great analysis mate... I have been reading a few of the articles/comments in english papers and everybody is definitely looking forward to this game. I do think that, as is shown by the player v player comparison England are a markedly better team than Scotland though i think that as a unit the Scottish have a better backrow.. particularly at the breakdown though they will miss Brown. Scotland will need to hope it rains, come out massively fired up, rip in at the breakdown and hope Paterson actually has his kicking boots on. I still think he is pretty average and Rory Lamont is actually the better player. P.s I admittedly havent seen a huge amount of Ashton but naming him as the best finisher in rugby is a massive call
Rugby Fan
Roar Guru
Scotland's best chance of winning is if England play like they did in the first half against Argentina. Scotland know how to get under England's skin. The two teams drew in the 2010 Six Nations and Scotland won in the same fixture in 2008. Those games were at Murrayfield, and it's a fair bet the crowd on Saturday will give Scotland a form of home advantage. The Scots have turned England over a few times when there's something at stake, and the English believe they are favourites. 1990 is well known but they also snuffed out an England Grand Slam in 2000. That may seem like ancient history in sport but Scotland like nothing better than spoiling the auld enemy, as the 2008/2010 results show. The Scots only recorded one win in each of those campaign but both were at England's expense.
manalien
Roar Pro
MR, your argument has 1 major flaw. It assumes a good performance from the Scots. The lost to Argentina who England beat despite playing poorly. They scraped past Georgia, who England beat easily (in the end),despite playing poorly and they scraped a bonus point against Romania, who England hammered. It needs more than an underpar England fro Scotland to win, that's not to say they won't pull it off!
manalien
Roar Pro
Bad weather, England indiscipline, a perfect day with the Boot for Paterson/Jackson and a huge day from the Scottish forwards. All eminently possible.
Blinky Bill of Bellingen
Guest
So sounds like no one thinks Scotland is any chance of knocking of England. And fair enough they seem outgunned all over the park. But surely there must be something the Scottish coaching staff would be looking at to pull of the unlikely. I mean they're just not going to run out there and throw it around. The Scots are far too canny for that. What would need to happen for Scotland to be considered a chance?
MR
Guest
Good article but you did not address englands problem with penalties, both kicking and taking, if england play like first two games Scotland will win easy, if is close Scotland will win, if England can break Scottish line and score a couple of early tries then England will win as Scotland has great difficulty finding tryline
manalien
Roar Pro
Never thought, as an Englashman, I would be accused of being too kind to the Jocks! Agree that England should win more easily on paper than they will find it on the day
mattamkII
Guest
perfect answer. Ashton is amazing in space and is great at finding it before he gets the ball. Beale etc make trys out of nothing.
Rob9
Roar Guru
I think you're being too kind to Scotland in the backs. Young along with Parra are head and shoulders above the pack for scrum half options in the NH. He's shown that he's back to his best after an injury layoff and his menacing runs around the fringes will be invaluable for the poms on saturday. And although Armitage is out of position on the wing he's still a far classier player than Danielli. I expect his speed and skills set to completly outclass Danielli's weary old bones in auckland. And i rate Lamont as an outside back back im not so sure as a 12. I would have just given this one to Tindall with his experience in centres and his solid form, but of the 3 evens you've given in the backs this is definately the closest call. On paper and form considered, England should have this by 15-20. But the Scots love nothing more than to get one over their calcutta rivals and just might grow another leg for this game. Should be a good one.
manalien
Roar Pro
There's a distinction between try scorer and finisher. The likes of Dagg, Nonu, Beale etc are great try scorers and often produce scintillating tries, but would I perfer them to Ashton when i need someone to squeak in, in the corner? No Clerc is phenomenal as is/was Habana. I think Jaque Fourie is also up there as is Tommy Bow and Digby Ioane Rokocoko on his day was one of the more lethal, I am also a big fan of Masaga. I guess it helps to have some great creators inside you!
thesportsguy
Guest
agreed, there are a number of world class finishers out there atm. dagg, ioane & i even like aplon and genova ahead of ashton.
Riccardo
Guest
Well written and on paper correct IMO. Of course the result will come down to hunger on the field on the day. Ashton the best finisher in the game? To be fair you did qualify this with arguably but still remains a brave call with the likes of Beale, Ioane, Dagg, Habana, Nonu, Kahui, Clerk, Gonzalez (to name a few) vying for that title.
manalien
Roar Pro
England by 11
thesportsguy
Guest
care to throw a winning margin in? i think it may be under 12 points for england.