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England and Scotland go head to head tomorrow at 5:30pm in a must-win for the Scots who have given Argentina the leap in the race for likely runner-up behind England. I’ve analysed the player vs player positions to work out if the Scots have a chance.
1. Matt Stevens vs. Allan Jacobsen: The loss of Andrew Sheridan was a blow to England, but the confidence they have in the remaining props is clear as he was replaced by a back-rower.
Stevens has given away far too many penalties to date, but has vowed to eliminate this habit in the remainder of the tournament.
As with many of Scotland’s forwards Jacobsen is underrated, however, a hungry Stevens should win through. Edge: England
2. Steve Thompson vs. Ross Ford: Relatively even, but Ford’s discipline wins out as Thompson’s propensity to be in the way and give away foolish penalties detracts from his more destructive play in both the tight and loose. Edge: Scotland
3. Dan Cole vs. Euan Murray: Luckily for Scotland the game is not on a Sunday. Not many people can get away with refusing to turn up to work one day a week because of their beliefs, and if I was part of the Scotland set up I would be pretty unimpressed by someone who did.
That said Euan Murray is an excellent operator especially at scrum time. Dan Cole has not been as prominent as England would have liked so far in the tournament, but expect him to rise to the challenge. Edge: Even
4. Courtney Lawes vs. Alastair Kellock: The Scottish Captain returns to add leadership up front, however the loss of Hamilton’s physicality could be telling. Lawes provides big carries and is abrasive all over the park, expect a big game from the English tyro as he tries to make up for the earlier suspension. Edge: Even
5. Louis Deacon vs. Richie Gray: Deacon is a big favourite of Martin Johnson’s and is very solid. Nothing more. Personally I think Tom Palmer is the better player. Richie Gray is a rising star and future British and Irish Lion. Immense in the lineout and prominent in the loose. Edge: Scotland
6. Tom Croft vs. Alastair Strokosh: Two very different players. Croft a master of the lineout, and blessed with bags of pace, relishes the open expanses and a high tempo. Strokosh operates closer to the ruck, is physical and won’t let you down. On a wet day give me Strokosh, if it is dry Croft. Edge: England (mainly thanks to Croft’s edge in the line out)
7. Lewis Moody vs. John Barclay: Barclay is a key ball winner for Scotland.Iif England cannot nullify him, they may find themselves on the wrong end of the refs whistle (again). Moody is searching for form and will give 110% at all times. He is not a natural fetcher though and will have his work cut out. Edge: Scotland
8. James Haskell vs. Richie Vernon: The injury to Nick Easter has been a blessing in disguise for England. Haskell has been their top performer up front, adding physicality and dynamism to their forward play. Vernon is relatively new to the international scene and will need to be on top of his game to match the England’s form player. Edge: England
9. Ben Youngs vs. Mike Blair: Youngs return from injury came just in time for England. His pace and speed of thought add an additional threat to their attacking options. Blair is very solid, has excellent distribution and kicking game. This will relieve the pressure of the young no. 10 Edge: Even
10. Ruaridh Jackson vs. Jonny Wilkinson: Both sides have made difficult decisions at 10. England opting for Old Faithful Jonny, Scotland conversely picking the young Jackson. Wilkinson looks to have upped his game in the last week and his experience of the big occasion is invaluable. Jackson is a better choice than Parks, but can he handle the pressure? Edge: England
11. Delon Armitage vs. Simon Danielli: A little surprised that England opted for Armitage, but he has shown good form in the earlier games, consistently crossing the gain line.
Danielli a big unit, but offers little in terms of guile. Expect him to be used to carry the ball up regularly, in attempt to create room for Ansbro, Evans and Paterson. Edge: Even
12. Mike Tindall vs. Sean Lamont: Tindall has lost much of his pace in recent years, but is every bit the defender he always has been, which is fortunate as Lamont will test him on Saturday.
Although he is playing out of position Andy Robinson has elected to get his best players on the park, and full credit to him for doing so. Defence is the key for Lamont, as England will look to exploit his lack experience at 12, mainly using Tuilagi. Edge: Even
13. Manu Tuilagi vs. Joe Ansbro: Tuilagi, is a real handful, cutting great lines and showing surprisingly good distribution. Look for him to be sent down the 12/13 channel on a variety of angles to test the Scottish centres, before being used as more of a decoy as Ashton and Armitage are brought into the game.
Ansbro is quick, and a good clever attacker, but he may find defence is his major task here. Edge: England
14. Chris Ashton vs. Max Evans: Ashton has hit form again, and is arguably the premier finisher in the world game (apologies to Clerc, Habana etc).
Max Evans is the most creative of the Scottish backs, who might be better deployed at 13. Doesn’t have the express pace or killer instinct of his opposite number. Edge: England
15. Ben Foden vs. Chris Paterson: Paterson, presumably picked for his goal kicking as he lacks the attacking threat of Rory Lamont. Foden has yet to hit the level he is capable in this campaign, but has shown he has grown in stature under the high ball and is still lethal in space. Edge: England
Final Score: England 9.5 – 5.5 Scotland.
Verdict: England should win, and if the weather is fine they will. Look for Scotland to raise their game on the day and leave it all out on the field. Unfortunately for them, their lack of cutting edge and creativity will be their downfall.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.