And in the process have given themselves a big sniff at a first-time RWC final appearance by playing an intelligent mixture of attacking rugby with rock solid defence.
The rugby world wrote off Ireland pre-Cup when they lost to Scotland 10-6, France 19-12 and 26-22, and England 20-9.
But come RWC time, the men-in-green have beaten the USA 22-10, the Wallabies 15-6, Russia 62-12, and Italy 36-6.
Ireland (world-ranked 6) take on Wales (7) in the first quarter final, the winner to meet either England (4) or France (5) in the semis, neither of whom are playing consistent rugby, especially with France beaten by Tonga.
Ireland’s in by far the easier half of the knock-out draw with the world’s top three ranked nations in the bottom half.
The Boks (2) take on the hot-and-cold Wallabies (3), the All Blacks (1) meet Argentina (8). For once the IRB world rankings are spot-on.
And punters won’t be far off the mark tipping an Ireland-All Blacks final, depending on how rapidly the injury toll rises.
The hardest hit are the world’s three best sides. The All Blacks have lost champion goal-kicker-playmaker Dan Carter, that’s huge – the Boks have lost blockbusting centre and long-range goal-kicker Frans Steyn, another big loss – while the Wallabies are minus No 8 Wycliff Palu, and winger Drew Mitchell – all four out of the tournament.
But their replacements are well short of the mark – Aaron Cruden for Carter, Zane Kirchner for Steyn, with Matt Goddard and Lachie Turner in for Palu and Mitchell.
The All Blacks are the hardest hit, with Colin Slade inked in as first choice fly-half-goal-kicker. That selection won’t win the men-in-black the coveted Cup.
As radical as it might sound, Piri Weepu – the best half-back ahead of Jimmy Cowan, and Andy Ellis – would be a far more productive fly-half-goal-kicker than Slade, in tandem with Cowan.
Coach Graham Henry has another selection headache, where to slot in Sonny Bill Williams? The big bloke is in devastating form, scoring a try and setting up three others in the 79-15 romp against Canada, and his defence is rock solid.
SBW would be first choice in any one of the other seven quarter finalists lineups, but Henry has him inked in for the bench. How can he ignore such firepower?
Bad call.
The same can be said of Boks coach Peter de Villiers with long-serving captain John Smit as hooker, or the far better performed and more versatile Bismarck du Plessis.
de Villiers prefers Smit, and there’s no doubt the Wallabies would agree to make full use of his immobility.
And that leaves Wallaby coach Robbie Deans, who chose the erratic Hodgson to back up David Pocock rather than the more experienced Phil Waugh, or George Smith.
Not that it matters. If Pocock is injured again, there goes in the Cup in one fell swoop – he is irreplaceable.
Deans’ headaches?
Nathan Sharpe or Dan Vickerman as James Horwill’s lock partner – Scott Higginbotham or Rocky Elsom as blindside flanker – and Berrick Barnes at inside centre with Adam Ashley-Cooper outside him, Digby Ioane and James O’Connor on the wings, with Kurtley Beale at full-back – leaving Rob Horne and Anthony Faingaa hovering in the mix.
The positive moves would be Sharpe, Higginbotham, with Horne and Faingaa bench prospects at best.
Next Sunday against the Boks will be Deans’ biggest litmus test to date in 53 internationals – career defining.
In the last World Cup played in France, both the All Blacks with Henry at the helm, and John Connolly coaching the Wallabies, were unceremoniously bundled out in the quarters.
It’s been a four-year long wait to erase the memory, and the embarrassment.
Rob9
Guest
I think what you're saying there is just reinforcing my statement that the Irish had a sub par 6 Nations. I do keep watch on the North in Feb/March and I’m well aware of Ireland’s superior try scoring record against some of their opposition. But the fact remains they didn’t win where it counts in two of their bigger games. And they just got over the line in the 2 games against teams that haven’t made the cut at this world cup. No arguments that they finished with a bang but that was quickly forgotten about after their next 4 games. Agree with the topsy tervy nature of warm up games, but 4 losses on the trot is hardly building that all important momentum leading into a cup. And I’d argue that the teams they were putting forward for their home games were not far off their best. At least in most of the warm ups they were no more experimental than the teams they were facing. Completely agree that by no means was pool C the walk in the park that the media made it out to be. Unfortunately though, the results back up their claims, but if Italy showed up in the 2nd halves of their bigger games it would have looked much closer on paper too. Before the cup began I would have said that pool A has 2 ‘good’ contenders while pool D has 4 but Tonga’s last hurrah and Fiji’s poor showing proved that wrong. At the end of the day I hope I am wrong, I’d love to see Ireland make the final. I loved watching the Argies storm towards the semis in 07’ and it’d be amazing to see the one home nation never to progress past the quarters in the top 4. The one thing they do have in their favour is that their depth which I believe was one of their major weaknesses heading in to this tournament hasn’t been tested to the extent that some of the other nations playing on the weekend have. Just for mine, when comparing them to their opponents on Saturday, they haven’t built a good enough case for it before and during this cup. I think Wales looks a stronger side, one of the strongest at this cup. If they do progress and meet England, I like the control and composure England have demonstrated this year and would be seriously surprised if they pulled off two blinders in a row to make a final. Their one hope for such a semi is the poms replicate their ‘stumbling at the final hurdle’ ways from earlier this year when the Slam was theirs for the taking (here’s hoping). I’d say they’d have the strongest chance to make it all the way if the frogs pull off the biggest U-turn of the century and beat England in the semis. And if by some sort of divine intervention, France find their winning way against England, I can’t see them slowing down all the way to the final. Although they look atrocious at the moment, they still have the team to be ‘hot’ if they decide to be hot. Happy to be proved wrong but I still believe the green machine are at the longest odds on the NH side of the draw to be seen in the cup final.
sheek
Guest
Well, I was just putting it up as an option. It's only 3 games, although 3 very important games, & there seems to be some lack of confidence in Slade. In any case, it appears the #10 will go to either Slade or Weepu.
rugy
Guest
Ferris has 3 bags of sugar(6kgs) more muscle than kaino, theres only one winner !!!
Ian Noble
Guest
For the majority of the Irish, this will be their last RWC. They have probably the most experienced squad but they will need to pull a performance out of the hat to beat Wales. If they play at the level of intensity as in the last 6Ns test v Eng then they will be very difficult to beat. The big question is do they have the stamina to produce three stella performances to lift the Cup? They know how the win, as the combination of Leinster and Munster squads with one or two hangers on is very successful in European knock out rugby but will they run out of steam. How unpredictable, great stuff, can't wait for the games this weekend.
Derm
Roar Guru
"They didn’t have a great 6 nations. As was mentioned in the article, they suffered through a terrible lead in to the tournament. They’re participating in what is supposed to be the ‘easiest’ group at the cup." It depends on how much you know about Ireland's performance at the 6 Nations. They played poorly against Italy in the opening match, but still won it. They outscored the French three tries to one but gave away too many penalties. They beat Scotland 3-0 on tries. They lost to Wales through a try that shouldn't have been awarded. And they beat England - fairly handsomely in the finale. It was a poor 6 Nations for Ireland considering how they could have done, but they were still developing the game that appeared in the England match. Warm-ups can be deceiving. Ireland said they were going to give all squad members game time, and select their RC from the four games. And they were trialling various combos. Their first choice team was never played during these warm-ups. An entire second-third string played a practical first team line from Scotland. They lost the match with a last-minute kick. A mix n match team were beaten fairly by a mix n match French team in Bordeaux. In the return match a week later, Ireland outsocred the French three tries to one but lost it on kicks - too many penalties again. In the final match a first-second string played England who fielded a monster scrum and with Tuilagi and Tindall in the backline. England won handsomely. On the face of it, Ireland looked like they had done badly in commentators and fans eyes - including mine. Their first up pool match was against USA, coached by former Ireland manager, Eddie O'Sullivan, held on the 10-year anniversary of 9/11. Eddie O'Sullivan owed one Declan Kidney, his successor. He also knew the Irish players more than most. The USA team were pumped and fit and fresh for their first match on a very emotional day. The end score didn't surprise me - Clever & Co ran a fantastic scrambling and powerful defence. Ireland fell off the pace in the second half and in their eagerness to get the bonus point, conceeded an intercept try. I don't agree with the assessment that Pool C was the easiest group of the four. It may have been viewed as such by australian commentators/journalists (certainly Greg Growden thought so), but that was a poor estimation of the teams. Every pool had three 'good' contenders. The inevitable crowded scheduling for the lower ranked teams meant someone like USA had two four-day turnarounds - even worse than Samoa.
Derm
Roar Guru
It's a different site Seiran. This one works out what points would be in different matches - very handy. http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php
Rob9
Roar Guru
Agree. No doubt that Samoa brought a special side to this WC, but the fact that Fiji fizzled put the group on par with pool B (ENG, ARG, SCO). I think both have earnt a well earned break but it'd be interesting to see Scotland v Samoa in November.
Rob9
Roar Guru
Don't get me wrong, I love seeing the Irish do well, but I can't understand how they've rocketed into the position of being one of the favourites to take out what is now the NH side of the draw. I can only assume since they got one over us, the Australian public now think they're world beaters. They didn't have a great 6 nations. As was mentioned in the article, they suffered through a terrible lead in to the tournament. They're participating in what is supposed to be the 'easiest' group at the cup. A smartly executed game against a weakened and as a result bumbling Wallabies, and Ireland have apparently booked at ticket for the final. To me their opponent on the weekend are in a far better position to have these sort of claims pinned upon them. Yes another team with a sub par 6 nations but they had a far more convincing warm up. During the pool games they lost a game against one of the favourites that they should have won. They did a good job navigating around a red hot Samoan side and they executed almost faultless performances against Fiji and Namibia. They now come into the knock out stage with the 2nd best for and against of the 8 remaining teams. In my opinion of the 4 NH teams left, Ireland are at the longest odds to stake a claim for a finals berth. Obviously their current form is far superior to that of the French, but Le Bleus do have a tendancy of putting together the most randomly brilliant performance out of nothing at these tournaments. For this weekend- England and Wales then I think England will make it 3 appearences in a row in cup finals. For mine, Ireland... too little too late.... I think...
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Well, it produced three tight games between South Africa, Wales and Samoa, but at the end of the day Samoa weren't good enough in attack and couldn't finish their try scoring opportunties. Personally, I felt that both South Africa and Wales believed they could beat Samoa from start to finish.
Justin
Guest
I think so looking at the matches and results it could have been any of the 3 to miss out. Samoa got a dud draw too.
bokka
Guest
Everyone is pretty much saying that Samoa would of gone through in any other pool, so I guess so.
Justin
Guest
Perspective - you want to play a 15 who has never played 10 at any level! I was merely pointing out (which you misinterpreted) that Dagg would be a better choice than Mils for obvious reasons. Never said he should play there just that he would murder Mils if there were a choice. Dagg is a natural but NZ has options at 10. Mils isn't even close and shouldn't be discussed as a pivot.
peter
Guest
I know people say Wales came through the group of death but was it really?
Jerry
Guest
Seriously - his kicking game is merely adequate for a fullback, it's a long way short of what is required at 10.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Mils at 10 is an awful idea. He couldn't cope at centre let alone 10.
sheek
Guest
Mango Jack, The ABs rely heavily on Carter, no doubt about that. But they also ensure they are close to the best in all departments - scrum, lineout, breakdown, kick restarts, field position, tactical options, centre thrusts, wing overlaps, backing up, defence, goal kicking, etc, etc, etc. They certainly need to make adjustments for the loss of Carter, but they remain dominant in so many other areas.....
sheek
Guest
Mario, I would hardly say Muliana is struggling. He has played most competently. The problem, or good thing for the ABs, is that Dagg has been playing so much better. But Muliana hasn't been playing badly at all. You & Justin need to put things into perspective.....
sheek
Guest
Justin, There's an old adage that "you don't weaken two positions by attempting to strengthen one". Why would you consider Dagg at flyhalf when he is playing brilliantly at fullback??? The ABs have had the change to flyhalf imposed upon them through injury. For the next 3 games, they need to find someone to fill the role competently, without necessarily being another Carter. Keeping in mind the ABs most potent attacking thrusts come from the centres, fullback & wingers in that order. They can put their trust in Slade, or they can try Weepu at #10, but he is also the team's best scrumhalf. The other alternative is Muliana. He mightn't have played the position before, but like I said, he brings experience & class. Right now, that's two valuable commodities going into the knock-out phase. And I disagree most strongly that Muliana lacks both skills & brains.
snato
Guest
100% agree Jiggles. Not only did he play some rubbish footy this year, but the bloke is retired. As for George Smith, he is not eligible for the Wallabies as he is not playing for an Australian rugby team at the moment. Why his name is continually offered up by some 'experts' as a potential replacement is beyond me. I want the Wallabies to win as bad as anyone, but should the ARU change their eligibility policy on the fly to accommodate this? No way. Smith is a fantastic player but he removed himself from Wallaby selection when he took a contract overseas.
Mark
Guest
Wales are more favoured for me. Their performance against the Boks was better than Ireland against Australia. As the Boks were better than the Wallabies. Wales are a little more convincing and are playing more than well enough to take out a world cup! Personally I thought Wales should have won. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.