After their big win last weekend, suddenly everyone is talking up Queensland’s chances of making the finals and potentially defending their Super Rugby crown.
There is no doubt no other team has struggled to overcome injuries as much as the Queensland Reds this season, and with many of the stars returning in recent weeks, we have seen a resurgence with impressive wins over the Blues and Chiefs and a very credible performance against the Crusaders.
These recent results have seen the Reds advance to 31 points and within striking distance of the top six sides. With just six rounds to go however, will it be too little, too late, to make a charge at the finals.
Currently there are three sides that will need to have their wheels completely fall off to not make the finals. They are the Bulls, Stormers and Chiefs.
These three sides have a healthy three-game buffer from the Reds and it would be hard to see the Reds overtaking any of them.
The Crusaders, thanks to a draw which sees them play four of their five remaining games at their home ground will be very tough to chase down too. Four home games and a bye should see them do enough to finish clear of the Reds.
The wake-up call the Rebels gave the Crusaders and their imposing home record should ensure this.
The Sharks have a tough run home but their recent form has been very encouraging. They have home and away matches against the Cheetahs, an away game against the Lions and two massive home games against the Bulls and Stormers.
If they can take full advantage of their home ground advantage and play to the level they have recently, they could conceivably win all these fixtures.
This will leave the Brumbies, Highlanders and Hurricanes as the teams to chase down.
The Highlanders and Hurricanes both have very hard runs home. They will find it hard to break back into the top six with their runs home.
This will leave the Brumbies who are cruising along nicely this season. They have a big match this week against the Hurricanes and a loss to the Hurricanes could split the Australian conference wide open.
If they drop their match against the Hurricanes, they could be playing a game for top spot in the Australian Conference against the Reds next week, assuming the Reds continue their form against the Lions and notch a five-pointer.
The Reds’ season for me, comes down to one fixture. This will be the Brumbies game next week which should decide the Australian conference.
If they win this fixture, they will go a long way in winning the conference. On the other hand, a loss could mean that the hill to climb into the top six will become a very steep one.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
I think the bonus point win by the Brumbies means the Reds will have to count on either the Sharks or Crusaders dropping off the pace. After tongiht I dont think it will be the Crusaders. Pure ruthless display by them
Jarmen
Guest
As per my post the tackle is a non event. The fact that the assistant ref claimed to not have seen Morahans number is absurd and this video only enforces that. He would have to be blinder than Stevie Wonder to not have seen it.
Suzy Poison
Guest
Jiggles, that’s your personal opinion, and one you are totally entitled to. You are Australian and Reds supporter and wear your heart on your sleeve. I concede that I am a Saffa and see it differently. I can see how you feel the Rebels, on current form, with Kurtley on fire at 10, and Mortlock back, could potentially be better the Cheetahs. The Rebels are without a doubt on the improve. However, at the end of the day you only have the score-board to measure the two teams, this year Sunday March 18th, 2012, the Cheetahs (33 ) beat the Rebels (26) in Melbourne. Therefore, I don’t really think it’s fair to think the Rebels are a better team, when they got beaten at home by the Cheetahs? Now let’s compare the Waratahs versus the Cheetahs. Cheetahs lost by a single point to the Brumbies, in Canberra. The Waratahs lost by 17points in Canberra to the Brumbies. Last year, the Waratahs lost to the Cheetahs, in Sydney. Of course we will find out, who is the better team, next weekend. Personally I am leaning towards the Cheetahs, at home especially after the fight they put up against the Stormers, in Cape Town, last weekend. Let’s see how we go, if the Waratahs lose, the argument is settled, they have been beaten home and away by a better team. If the Waratahs win, I will concede then they are the better team. Also then the table will reflect that too. Currently the table shows the Cheetahs are above the Tahs, Rebels and Force, and that, for me, is an accurate reflection of current team’s strength.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
I don't think its fair to say that at all about the Cheetahs. I think they are about the same level as the Force to be honest. but below the Tahs and Rebels
Joshy
Guest
Fail. The only weak side in the SA conference are the Lions, and even then they have yet to be thrashed. The Cheetahs before last week were sitting ahead of the Tahs, Reds,Force and Rebels, so I wouldn't say anything harshly about them. Had Goosen not been injured, I could see them threatening to break into the top 6.
Suzy Poison
Guest
Lions are shocking, and the Cheetahs are struggling, specially after losing Goosen. However it's fair to say, the Cheetahs are still way better than the majority of the Aussie teams. Remembering that the Cheetahs have to play top of table teams in their conference. This is proven by the table. The Cheetahs still sit above the Waratahs, Rebels and Force on the table. To best illustrate this, I quote Jake White, when asked if it's myth that the Aussies have the weakest conference, he said: "It's not a myth, it's a fact, the Aussies have the weakest conference, you only have to look at the table!"
matthew
Guest
Dont forget, the Stormers have been decimated by injury and are playing with a many brand new youngsters thrown into the cauldron of Super Rugby. It's been a pleasure watching the likes of Kolisi and Etsebeth cope so well to date.
jeznez
Guest
I had to play in the backs three times ever - dark dark days indeed.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
Not really a wind up, considering how bad the Lions and Cheetahs are. The Sharks have had an easy run till now and got some lucky wins but again they are much better than the Lions and Cheetahs so they are gifted an easy 16 points this year. Despite that I think the Stormers are a quality team and are the best in the comp in my opinion so they'd still be up the top without the benefit of those easy double games.
Mark Richmond
Roar Guru
As far as the officials think there was foul play. A penalty was awarded and a yellow was going to be given if the player was identified......SANZAR even gave Morahan an off field yellow card.
Suzy Poison
Guest
LAS, my calculations are, that the teams will stay as exactly the same position as there are in. 1 Vodacom Bulls 2 Chiefs 3 Brumbies 4 DHL Stormers 5 Crusaders 6 Sharks By my calculations, the Highlanders, Hurricanes and Reds won't make it. I have however picked the Brumbies to beat the Reds in Canberra, that game go either way, especially now that the Reds seemed to have some confidence back. The Canes aren't the finnished article yet to me, and Highlanders have major injuries. The Sharks have the best home run of anyone. The Reds are the real spoilers, you would expect them to get 5 points against the Lions this weekend, and get some momentum. Be very interesting how the Brumbies go with a new playmaker. Overall I think it will be a Bulls versus Chiefs final. With The Bulls winning?
Rob
Guest
Well, sure, putting four tries on the Brumbies would be great for confidence, but when was the last time the Reds did that? Never. The Reds have never scored a four-try bonus point against the Brumbies. Not in Canberra. Not anywhere. So is the time now? I doubt it. They have a better coach than they have had for ten years. Their confidence is up. Their defensive structure has held the line for only 17 tries in 10 matches - a record bettered only by the Stormers. They're winning games. Their crowds are starting to come back. The weather in Canberra is already dipping below zero (including a couple of -5's, I believe?). True, their flyhalf is fresh and untested; but only as fresh as ours. And their guy is going to be tested by the Hurricanes - not the Lions. I'm not trying to be defeatist, I just can't see it happening. Doesn't mean the Reds won't make the finals, though. They're just not gonna get four tries in Canberra.
Suzy Poison
Guest
LOL..Jiggles, too funny, you are a great wind up artist....I guess you must be talking about the same weak Saffa conference, that has three teams in the top six....Mate, at least your Red boys are looking good lately, even if they are still sitting at 9th on the table.
Rugby Diehard
Guest
KPM? Are you there..................
The Bush
Roar Guru
Classic.
Red Kev
Guest
Not really. They need to stamp on the Australian conference. Their only other derby match is against NSW and the rugby state of origin matches are always tight grindy affairs. Plus the best way to dent the Brumbies confidence in the run to the finals is to put meat pies on them.
Rob
Guest
Targeting the second best defensive side in the comp for a bonus point? When they're playing at home? That's a bit ambitious, isn't it?
Carnivean
Guest
Sharks vs Stormers will be a battle of 2 very similar teams. The Stormers cattle has had the wood on the Sharks cattle for a few years now. Lambie and Michalak will find it very hard to generate attack against the Stormers wall, and I think the difference will be found there. If they can pierce the wall a few times, then forward parity isn't so crucial. I think it is telling that the Sharks have moved Lambie back to fullback, and I think the SA selectors will have noticed. I do agree that the Stormers are not going that great at the moment. The Sharks game is a litmus test of their finals chances.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Stayed up and watched the Stormers Cheetahs game and the Stormers should have lost that game. They were completely outclassed in the last 60 minutes of that game. If the Cheetahs didnt turn away all the kickable penalties they had in the first half they could well have won that game by 4 to 7 points. The Stormers are not a particularly great side. They have a rock solid defense but an inability to pile on the points. I think the Sharks can beat them. The Bulls will be a tough one however. As for the Cheetahs, they seem to always find a way of losing the close ones.
Johnno
Guest
jeznez I love it you'll never be back, but a pig till the day you die Jeznez, you'll always be a forwad mate. Johnno.