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After their big win last weekend, suddenly everyone is talking up Queensland’s chances of making the finals and potentially defending their Super Rugby crown.
There is no doubt no other team has struggled to overcome injuries as much as the Queensland Reds this season, and with many of the stars returning in recent weeks, we have seen a resurgence with impressive wins over the Blues and Chiefs and a very credible performance against the Crusaders.
These recent results have seen the Reds advance to 31 points and within striking distance of the top six sides. With just six rounds to go however, will it be too little, too late, to make a charge at the finals.
Currently there are three sides that will need to have their wheels completely fall off to not make the finals. They are the Bulls, Stormers and Chiefs.
These three sides have a healthy three-game buffer from the Reds and it would be hard to see the Reds overtaking any of them.
The Crusaders, thanks to a draw which sees them play four of their five remaining games at their home ground will be very tough to chase down too. Four home games and a bye should see them do enough to finish clear of the Reds.
The wake-up call the Rebels gave the Crusaders and their imposing home record should ensure this.
The Sharks have a tough run home but their recent form has been very encouraging. They have home and away matches against the Cheetahs, an away game against the Lions and two massive home games against the Bulls and Stormers.
If they can take full advantage of their home ground advantage and play to the level they have recently, they could conceivably win all these fixtures.
This will leave the Brumbies, Highlanders and Hurricanes as the teams to chase down.
The Highlanders and Hurricanes both have very hard runs home. They will find it hard to break back into the top six with their runs home.
This will leave the Brumbies who are cruising along nicely this season. They have a big match this week against the Hurricanes and a loss to the Hurricanes could split the Australian conference wide open.
If they drop their match against the Hurricanes, they could be playing a game for top spot in the Australian Conference against the Reds next week, assuming the Reds continue their form against the Lions and notch a five-pointer.
The Reds’ season for me, comes down to one fixture. This will be the Brumbies game next week which should decide the Australian conference.
If they win this fixture, they will go a long way in winning the conference. On the other hand, a loss could mean that the hill to climb into the top six will become a very steep one.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.