When TMO Mike Fraser awarded Hurricanes’ hooker Dane Coles an almost-season-saving try well after the bell in Friday night’s clash with the Chiefs, I had a bad feeling about the rest of the weekend’s results.
In a run to the finals where results had hardly been going according the script (come on, hands up, who honestly had the ‘Canes beating the Crusaders AND the Chiefs in the last three rounds?), this generous decision from Fraser was a guarantee that the final round of the regular season was also going to throw up some doozies.
Quade Cooper banned for one week
Proof of the quality of the conference and final six formats should come with this number: Nine. Only nine points separated first and eighth in 2012. In 2011, nine points separated first and sixth, and twelve separated first and seventh. No wonder it’s felt like the closest run home ever.
Back on Mike Fraser, I still don’t know how he saw the ball grounded, but it’s all academic now. At that point, the Hurricanes had done what they had to do to stay alive, even if it came forty-odd phases (or however many it was) and five minutes after the siren had sounded. The ‘Canes had won, and my tips were heading south again.
Compare the Hurricanes’ desperation with the Brumbies’ fatal hesitation. The Brumbies have played that same play-it-in-their-half gameplan pretty much since Christian Lealiifano went down back in early May, but that gameplan relies on not shanking at least three clearing kicks from inside your own 22, and not putting at least two box kicks out on the full.
The risk against the free-running, nothing-more-to-lose Blues was that all that free ball around halfway would come back to bite hard. And doubly hard, when you miss upwards of fifteen tackles in the first 20 minutes.
What was worse was where the tackles were missed. A defensive line that had let in the third-lowest number of tries all season was suddenly leaking like a waterlogged tissue in midfield. A game the Brumbies had to win started terribly and never recovered.
Anyway, enough about the Brumbies. They took the gas when they could’ve capped off their season perfectly, and instead had to run the gauntlet of other results for the rest of the round. They had their destiny in their hands, and they dropped it like a stone. By early Sunday morning Canberra time, they had paid the ultimate price.
The Hurricanes, on the other hand – as did the Reds – won by just playing as they had all year. Both teams play a high-risk game, but both have reaped big rewards, too. The Hurricanes finished with the most tries scored, and the Reds rocketed to the top of the Australian conference courtesy of a three-week revision of their 2011 gameplan and a decent return to fitness for Quade Cooper.
While the Reds boast a reasonably attractive style, the same can’t necessarily be said of the ‘Canes. This is the side that lost to the Cheetahs in late-March, you’ll recall, after leading 32-11. The best way of describing the Hurricanes methods is simply to say I’m glad they’re not ‘my team’. My mob already provide enough ‘moments’, but even they’ve had nothing on how red-hot and ice-cold the Hurricanes have been this season.
Of course, the ‘Canes have also missed an unlikely shot at finals glory in the end, and like the Brumbies, they too will look back over their season and identify the ‘what if’ moments that might have served them better. No doubt, that Cheetahs game will come up. So will their loss to the Brumbies in Wellington, ironically.
Be that as it may, what we do know about the Brumbies and Hurricanes is that they won’t be underestimated in 2013.
The Reds have emerged as something of a dark horse for 2012, though, with a Qualifying Final at home now providing the perfect platform for a Semi Final berth. They’ve had an up-and-down season, but they’ve still been hard to beat in Brisbane.
The worry about the Crusaders – for opposing teams – is that they got their jolt back into action in mid-May, and they really seem to be hitting their straps the further they go into July. Two losses ‘they had to have’, against the Rebels in Melbourne, and against the Hurricanes a fortnight ago, have forged this team for success. They were brutal against the Force for the first fifty minutes, before holding back the whip to canter home. They will have good reason to be confident on Saturday night.
And so will the Reds, despite losing to the Sharks earlier in the year. Quade Cooper has given them a few sleepless nights after being rubbed out for a week for his lazy tackle on Berrick Barnes.
He’s probably lucky it wasn’t a month ago, though, judging by the caveat applied: “the SANZAR Rules allow consideration be given to the importance of games to be played during the Super Rugby finals series and as such, this has been taken into account as a mitigating circumstance.”
The Bulls and Sharks will have concerns themselves, as they make another trip across the Indian Ocean this week. Both started leisurely against lowly opposition, as seems to have been the case for the South African front-runners since the resumption. Even the Stormers did their best to let the Rebels back in.
Neither the Bulls or Sharks can afford slow starts against the Crusaders and Reds respectively, or they’ll be in a world of trouble against teams that have shown their preference in recent weeks to get out of the blocks quickly. The Sharks are up against it already with Patrick Lambie ruled out, and Frans Steyn ineligible.
I think both teams from the Republic are up against it this weekend, and expect both Qualifying Finals to go with the home sides. Mind you, as the Hurricanes showed, and the Brumbies found out, Super Rugby is still capable of springing more surprises.
Should my predictions run true – no guarantee, on recent form – this will have the first-placed Stormers sitting in wait for the arrival of the Crusaders, and the Reds fancying their chances in another showdown against the rested Chiefs.
And then, who knows once you get to the semi-final stage. Super Rugby’s already thrown up that many late-season curve balls that nothing would surprise me once we get to the last four. It’s just been that sort of season.
Sage
Guest
I'm the provocateur ? Spare me. I didn't intend to lecture you Ryan, just a suggestion when it comes to your complaining about how callous, immature and confrontational some of the nasty Aussie posters have been to your poor self when you make ludicrous statements about SANZAR promoting match fixing in relation to the Reds. Excuse me if I was too assumptive when it came to your claims about other posters. An easy mistake I woud suggest if previous posts are anything to go by. I didn't realise you were righteously defending others rather than commenting about your own experiences. How very egalatarian of you. As I said, if it's all too much, there is an easy solution.
Red Kev
Guest
And if you actually watched the incident you'd see Jake Schatz is clearly on his feet, supporting his weight as first arriving player and steals the ball fair and square.
Ryan
Guest
If you actually read my post you will clearly see why that last penalty was dubious. The Reds players were not supporting their own weight. Therefore it was a dubious penalty that got them out of jail IMO. I think the whole controversy claims that Reds fans spit out about in Christchurch continuously are just as valid as the call in Highlanders in Suncorp. Or is it only Australian fans who can claim some sort of contreversy?
Coxinator
Guest
Next week hopefully the line is: "they only won because of Lambie and Steyn's absence". Snore...
Coxinator
Guest
I love the way the Reds have scared opposition supporters so much that everyone has to drum up a reason as to why they shouldn't be there/don't deserve a spot/won against poor opposition/why Cooper should be suspended, the list goes on. If the opposition has even a skerrick of this fear, then they really do have a great chance. For what it's worth, their lack of control in contact has me thinking they won't get there. That's where they were far better last term.
Red Kev
Guest
It was controversial because the Reds won and that scares NZers.
Coxinator
Guest
How is the win versus the Highlanders questionable? They were the better team for the bulk of the match and only had a scare due to a string of questionable Kaplan penalties that handed them attacking position for the majority of the last twenty minutes.
Ryan
Guest
Ah excuse me classic example of a provocateur, I think in fact you will find I am not refering to people reacting to my posts but certain Australian posters having a go at others on this site. And resorting to confrontational and nasty stereotypes. So please SAge before commenting to me do your homework otherwise your post is devoid of any merit. I have only ever been respectful to anyone I have engaged with on this site. You may want to take up the respect lecture with posters such as Ash, Cattledog and Xie they have repeatedly resorted to abusive and derogatory comments to any poster who has disgagreed with them and resorted to personal attacks. Show me anywhere on this site where I have done anything similar and then I will give you some credit, but until then please do not try and lecture me on respect and common decency!
Ryan
Guest
Jerry as i replied to brett in an above post this system ahs been debated since SANZAR first announced it, I remember on this very site a couple of guys predicted this exact scenario could and would happen, I would have to go back through the archives to find who they were exactly. But at the time they were told that it just wouldn't happen and were mocked tirelessly. Two years in and look whats happened. Just because the rules say this and that, it does not make it right. In my opinion SANZAR are themselves promoting match fixing by giving a weaker team home advantage.
Ryan
Guest
It doesn't make it right though does it Brett, Fans have bemoaned this system from the day it was announced and it has only take two seasons to show it up for the complete farce that it is.
sixo_clock
Roar Guru
That comment was made in the belief that Rugby players determine their own fate on the paddock. That no-one took the responsibility to speak up and get things moving in the right direction quickly, early is imho a crucial difference between test level players and wannabes. The players mentioned were all senior, experienced and should have been ready willing and able to redirect the ship. Of course the problem was set in well before the game, but those players should have been aware of the possibility of the young players switching off and been prepared to stamp it out. As for visiting the 'Tahs. Gratuitous nonsense. Dingo did what he could to resurrect those careers from the damage of being in a hapless franchise but if you follow the thread of my comments you will see the overarching concept is one of team players first and talent second if not third. This is a game won or lost in the mind and mental preparedness explains a lot, but it is never an excuse.
Tissot Time
Roar Rookie
SUNcorp
steve.h
Guest
Isn't the Reds Sharks game at night?
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
I still can't believe they didn't qualify :O
matthew
Guest
I think those two will be a more significant loss for the Sharks. The rejigged back-line will likely be very uncohesive. FSteyn in particular is a massive loss. Saffa teams have a tremendous record with him at inside centre and he's by far the best we have. He's got a great offloading game going of late to go with his size and power so it's really disappointing he'll miss out :( Not much hope for me for the Sharks, think it will be a dissapointing performance and they'll be outsmarted by the Reds. Du Plessis,Pietersen,Alberts and Michalak the guys the Reds need to keep an eye on.
Freddles
Guest
When you are busy scoring gifted tries, it's hard to find the time to work your way into a try scoring situation.
Sage
Guest
Perhaps Ryan or it could be that many posters got your point/opinion the first time when it comes to the "undeserving" Reds. To many it is just a continued beligerence about their "undeserved" finals win last year and it gets a bit tiresome. Remember this is an Aussie site and although all are welcome, don't expect to be treated with kid gloves if you continue posting the "undeserved" rant. It smacks of fear of the Reds and ungraciousness as to what they've achieved over the last number of games to get to this position and if you find it all a bit too callous, immature or even confrontational for your sensitivities, then there is a very easy solution.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Yep i agree. We all have to bite the bullet with what happens under the rules this year, but we don't have to sit quietly and be happy with it to happen again next year. Something needs to be done.
SamClench
Roar Pro
I'm already underestimating the Brumbies for next season. No chance of making the finals!
steve.h
Guest
Look I'm not a fan of the Bulls but I think everyone has over looked their achievement of having a major personnel change and still managing to make the play offs. Everyone in South Africa had written them off as a middle of the table team in the beginning of the year. Further to that, it seems that the Rebels are showed some glimpse of being a very dangerous team and in a season or two could be a really strong team.