During the June Tests some insiders (but not Robbie Deans) told me that the Wallabies have pinpointed Saturday’s Test against the All Blacks as the must-win match in The Rugby Championship for the team.
The marketing of the Test, with the slogan ‘This Time They’re Not At Home,’ gives the clue to the motivation the coaching staff is looking to to get the Wallabies up for the Test.
The home ground advantage is going to be used as a key psychological imperative for the Wallabies. ANZ Stadium is going to be a sea of gold.
And the crowd will be as unforgiving for the All Blacks as the New Zealand crowd was to the Wallabies when New Zealand monstered them at Eden Park in the semi-final of the 2011 Rugby World Cup tournament.
The idea behind the strategy is that a defeat at Sydney will rattle the new All Blacks coaching staff into a panicky response. And if this happens, the Wallabies could pull off a second victory at Eden Park a week after the Sydney Test. This sort of outcome would result in the capture of the Bledisloe Cup by the Wallabies for the first time in a decade.
And it would obliterate the memory of the 2011 RWC semi-final at Eden Park when the Wallabies cracked under intense pressure on and off the field.
Graham Henry has revealed in his rugbiography that a key tactic at Eden Park was to get to Quade Cooper. This was done by kicking high to him when he was on defensive at the back, out of the front line. Cooper made a hash of several bombs. He had already started that game poorly by kicking out on the full from the kick-off.
This mistake and the fumbles, together with the pressure of the All Blacks and the roaring hostility of the crowd, undoubtedly got to Cooper.
As far as the All Blacks were concerned this was one of the keys (along with holding Will Genia from making his trade-mark breakouts) to defeating the Wallabies.
With Cooper playing poorly and with Kurtley Beale out injured, the Wallabies were without the guile and firepower to trouble the All Blacks too much in attack.
From the hints that Deans is giving to the media, it seems likely that Cooper won’t play on Saturday for the Wallabies. The preference, it seems, is for Berrick Barnes, a steadier player but hardly the playmaker with the ball that Cooper is when he is on song.
Cooper’s unpredictability and his genius talent for making telling passes that set up runners into gaps are reasons why I’d always play him against the All Blacks. And the reason for this?
To my mind the All Blacks are the Spartans of rugby. They do the basics 110 per cent. They are ruthless in pursuit of victory. They are structured and efficient. But they can be put off their game when their opponents do not play according to the known script.
The Spartans were like this. The Athenians, not a warlike people, occasionally defeated them by employing unusual, unexpected or new tactics.
Cooper brings the unusual, the unexpected and sometimes the new to the teams he plays for. He has been able to disconcert a number of top New Zealand Super Rugby sides in recent years with his sleight of hand play.
A problem with him, though, is that at number 10 his unorthodoxy doesn’t work that well at the Test level. He is rather like Carlos Spencer in this regard.
At number 10 against weaker sides or sides that gave him room or in matches below the intensity of Tests, Spencer was unbeatable.
But in tight matches when the percentage play is often the best play, Spencer (and Cooper) was often found wanting.
So I would play Cooper at fullback, if Beale is not available, or on the wing if Beale and O’Connor (at number 10) are available.
In an interesting interview with Greg Growden in the SMH, Robbie Deans was asked if he was hoping to have, “the Three Amigos (Beale, O’Connor and Cooper) back together?”
The Deans reply was extremely pointed: “Hopefully never in their former role. Hopefully never for the reason they got their reputations.” This is interesting in that Deans is clearly foreshadowing that he’s had it with their juvenile behaviour off the field.
He did intimate further into his answer that his coaching staff is putting a lot of work into bringing all three players back from their injuries in a way that does not set them up for further injuries.
It was interesting, too, that Tony McGahan, the new Wallabies coaching co-ordinator, has told rugby reporters that the main area that required improvement was the team’s “high-ball receipt and kick-catch skills,” plus raising the level of “continued pressure” around the breakdown in defence and attack.
When you look at the Wallabies you see a team that lacks a lot of firepower in the forwards and in the backs. Genia, Beale and Digby Ioane can make breaks. Genia has told reporters, “To be brutally honest, if we’re going to be a chance in The Rugby Championship we need to score a lot more tries than we did against Scotland and Wales.”
Some really good attacking coaching will need to be done, for only Beale, O’Connor and Cooper, in my view, are real tearaway runners capable of shredding a defence from long range. Only Beale is likely to play on Saturday. In the forwards, the runners are even less evident. Scott Higginbotham is the most damaging runner in the pack.
For all the praise he gets as a fetcher number 7, David Pocock does very little running with the ball and what little running he does is of the hard and short yards variety. This is why I believe his better position these days is blindside flanker with someone like Liam Gill playing the fetcher, link and running game.
As an aside, I believe it is only a matter of time before a smart coach starts Michael Hooper as an outside centre, his true position, in my opinion. But this is for another discussion.
Andrew Blades, the new scrum coach, has stated that he doesn’t want the Wallabies front row to try to trick their way through games, as they did some years ago. He is confident that the scrum will stand up to the All Blacks, Springboks and the Pumas.
If he is correct then the Wallabies will be able to get a good platform to launch some set moves that Deans has given the back line but have had to be put away because the scrum has been too unstable.
The Wallabies will have had a lot of time off the field by the time the Test comes around. The time has been used to get a number of players, especially those from the Waratahs, much fitter than they were during the Super Rugby season. But the lack of game fitness might be a problem.
The All Blacks have had the Crusaders and the Chiefs in the finals. These players are reasonably match fit you would think. Last week the All Blacks squad, without Crusaders and Chiefs, played 20 minutes against Counties Manakau and 20 minutes against Auckland (with 13 Super Rugby players in the team). From all accounts, the players needed the game time.
This is something the Wallabies need to think about in future before a series like The Rugby Championship.
Rather than making a Spiro prediction right now, I’ll report on a Richard Loe Fearless Prediction. In the NZ Herald on Sunday, Loe’s article was headlined, “Wallabies will win only once in the new comp.”
His argument is that the Wallabies “will be found wanting up front.” The proof of this is, in his opinion, the front and second rows aren’t very strong.
He also makes the point that I make, Cooper is both the weakness and the strength of the Wallabies. “If Deans chooses Berrick Barnes at first five-eighths,” he argues, “I will stick to my one-win (against the Pumas) prediction. However, they may do better if he selects Cooper.”
There have been bloggers on The Roar who have been critical of the new tournament being named The Rugby Championship. I disagree with this sentiment. The name leaves open the possibility of a lucrative sponsorship as in The —- Rugby Championship.
As well, the introduction of Argentina takes away some of the Tri-Nations inequality of a team playing, say, two Tests at home and only one away against one of its opponents. And it gives the Tri-Nations teams a really formidable opponent, especially when the Pumas play at home.
The Rugby Championship in every way is a harder and superior tournament than the Six Nations and deserves its definitive title.
Now all four teams play a home and away match against each other (with the Wallabies and All Blacks playing a third Bledisloe Cup Test each year several weeks after The Rugby Championship). The home and away system is much fairer than the Six Nations format and the old Tri-Nations format.
I admire the positivity of the Wallabies going into the first Test played in The Rugby Championship format. The positive attitude could create a virtuous circle where expectations become matched with performance. And a confident, grounded Wallaby side is always a difficult side to defeat, even for the All Blacks as they learnt last year at Brisbane.
But then I remember the positivity of the Wallabies going into the first Tri-Nations Test in 1996. The All Blacks, in the wind, rain and sleet, played one of great 40 minutes of rugby to smash the Wallabies out of the game and to set the standard for the Wallabies and Springboks to emulate.
But, then, that 1996 Test was played at Wellington. The first Rugby Championship Test will be played at Sydney. As the latest Olympics medal table suggests, it is always easier to win gold in events held on your own territory.
At least, that’s the theory the Wallabies are banking on.
Sneaky Samurai
Guest
Fainga'a may surprise a few people come Saturday. He's been linking quite well with the outside backs at the Reds this season and he's been passing it early. He might have to throw cut outs though to get it to the wingers if Horne's at 13 Cooper at 10, Barnes at 12, and Fainga'a at 13 would have a nice balance to it no?
Wal The Hooker
Guest
Gidday SP I agree with you, I'm always nervous when the ABs play in AUS no matter what everybody writes or what has happened before. The WBs IMO will turn up as they always do against the ABs especially in Aus. It won't be a cake walk in my view, I think that extra time in camp should have the WBs focused and there's really no lack of motivation for them. I'm gutted I won't be seeing the game, I'm on a plane to the Cook Islands at 9pm on SAT night to wed my Aussie lass. She'll have her WBs scarf and I'll have my ABs jumper on, although she's a mad WBs supporter I just couldn't convince her to fly out SUN morning as we'd have to go via NZ making the flight 9hrs rather than 6! Go figure! A man just can't win when the sheila's made up their minds. Just hoping there's a Foxtel TV somewhere at the airport... Go the ABs and here's to good match
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
He's improved a little. You'll just say literally anything to attack Robbie Deans.
sheek
Roar Guru
I'm really quite excited about the Rugby Championship. Which is saying something since I've been down on my rugby for a while now. I just hope we get some really competitive, compelling, boots 'n all, no quarter given or asked, exhilarating rugby. That's what I want. I want the rugby I'm watching to lift me off my lounge chair, for all sorts of emotions, & I'm a big bloke! I don't fancy the Wallas' chances. Unlike some other countrymen, I think they're a false world no.2. Until they display some high level consistency, & string together something like 3-4 good wins, I just don't rate them at all highly. I just pray we're going to have some good rugby, not ruined by overzealous officiating. The Pumas will bring an entirely different perspective to southern hemisphere rugby, which I find both fascinating & exciting. Ole..........!
sheek
Roar Guru
Ah Uncle, The Guns Of Navarone. What an awesome movie - Gregory Peck, David Niven, Anthony Quinn, Anthony Quayle, Stanley Baker, Jimmy Darren, James Robertson Justice, Irene Papas & Gia Scali. Gia Scali was actually a very attractive woman. The short hair in this movie didn't do her justice at all. Richard Harris, in one of his earliest film appearances, plays an Aussie lancaster pilot who says "ruddy" a lot in his de-brief. Even in 1961, "bloody" was too severe a swear word to use!!! How time shave changed.....
Tui
Guest
Nice post Matt.
Matt
Guest
A couple of points. Firstly, how is 'The (insert company name here) Rugby Championship' any different to 'The (insert company name here) Four Nations'? I can't see any real point of naming this competition such a strangely generic name with so very little marketing clout. You can plonk a sponsors name in from of any title for goodness sake! You could call it 'The (insert company name here) Southern Hemisphere international test match rugby series involving South African, New Zealand, Australia and Argentina' and it'd have more marketing punch. At least it would be uniquely over named. In the end, it would have been better with a simple short name, where the Rugby on the pitch can do the advertising. A simple '(insert company name here) Four Nations' would have been a suitably sensible title and have offered the promoters just as much to sell. Second point is that I feel a bit sorry for Deans. As much as I disliked the fact that he packed a sad and headed across the Tasman in an attempt to break Kiwi hearts, peddling his rugby IP to the highest bidder, the fact remains that he is fighting an impossible losing battle. Quite simply there just isn't the talent in Australian rugby right now to consistently beat the All Blacks and Deans is copping the heat for that. He can only select players eligible for the Wallabies from within those players participating domestically. And it is definitley not the job description of the national Coach to be identifying untried talent out of nowhere to experiment with them in the intense test match cauldron. So Deans is essentially limited to selecting players from 5 super rugby squads, of which 3 were in horribly poor form this season, especially compared to their South African and Kiwi opponents. If you were to compare any single position Deans has the more empty toybox of all three coaches. A wallabies forward pack devoid of exposive runners compared to the Boks and AB's, both of whom are stacked full of them on the bench alone. Props like Afeaki and Tamefuna not even in the 30 man squad. Players like Kerr-Barlow, Barrit, Andre Taylor, Masaga, Ranger, Piutau (just to name a few) unable to get a look in. Deans can't take selection risks as he doesn't even have risky players to take a punt on! It could very well eventuate that the Wallabies will lose both games against the AB's, at least one against the Boks and another away to Los Pumas. Deans will get the sack and the ARU will bring in McKenzie as Wallabies coach for the end of year tour. That will allow him to build a squad ahead of the Lions tour in 2013 and to give him 3 full seasons ahead of the World Cup. And to be fair, there is certainly no point in sticking with Deans if you don't intend to keep him on until 2015. Plus the cards have already been shuffled with Richard Graham moving to the Reds to free up big Ewen. But the fact is that the Wallabies are fighting a war with insufficient weapons and it doesn't matter how good the general is. Sure, he might be able to instigate a rare winor two in a battle against the odds, but a longer term war always comes down to resources and weapons technology. And frankly, right now Australian rugby just isn't investing enough in the R&D side of their rugby.
Tui
Guest
Thank god for that otherwise what would be the point in playing this test.
Athilnaur
Guest
so much paralysis by analysis, outmatched only by negative self defeatism. The day has no dawned that the Wallabies are incapable of beating the all blacks, nor will it in the near future. The all blacks are 15 men on a field, each with 2 legs and 2 arms. The harder the game is played, the more beatable they become. They are not automatons, they are not replicants, or any kind of god, no matter how much they or their fans like to think they are. They are a team of well trained and hardened athletes that can be beaten, have been beaten, and will be beaten again.
Sylvester
Guest
I think we can forgive the world's best 10 a bad game every now and then. The point is, Cooper knows what is pack is capable of. He's got to adapt his game accordingly. It means playing a bit tighter until the opportunities present themselves, instead of trying the hero play when it's not on. The Aussies need him to have a chance of winning, I believe.
matthew
Guest
Genia, O'conner, Beale the only feared Aussie backs, the rest are chickenfeed. Forwards desperately missing Horwill too.I predict the Wallabies to finish second last in the RC and to suffer defeat at the hands of Argentina.
Justin2
Guest
You mean the RBS 6 Nations - http://www.rbs6nations.com/ :)
SandBox
Roar Guru
well said Dave, agree with you. Ultimately, why do we watch rugby when there are other entertainment options. Boring game plan will see people switch channel
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Dingo Dingo Dingo where for art thou balls? You cannot go into a match against the current world champions with a negative mindset and hope to win. Maaaaate are you trying to cripple Australian rugby before you come home?. Where is the firepower? TPN on his day is a weapon, but he has not had the same impact of late imo. Higginbotham is still developing as an 8 and as an all rounder. He is still not as effective in the tight as he could be, but his concentration and drive to improve this area has dampened his threat on the fringes. The fact he has not yet formed a solid unit with his 6 and 7 means he does not have the freedom to roam two or three out from the ruck where his pace and size is a real threat. Working as individuals means they have to work harder at ruck time then if they worked as a unit. He is still a better 6 but i really think 8 suits his game more and gives him a bit more space with ball in hand. Timani and Sharpe are solid but neither pose a real threat offensively. Pocock is the most threatening player in the pack, but that is when the Wallabies don’t have the ball. With it, he is target practice for the likes of Messam, Rettalick and Whitelock he just lacks penetration and speed. The big missing ingredient imo is Hooper. This is the guy who has the abrasive running game, pace and attitude to be a threat. if i was Robbie i would be accommodating this tyro in the starting lineup. The backline…..dear lord. Barnes Faainga Horne. That is a negative approach to a game that should be about setting the tone for the entire RC. The fan’s want to watch some rugby being played, positive rugby. I think there will be only one side doing that on Saturday and judging by those 3 possible selections i can’t see it being the Wallabies. Genia Ioane and Beale are going to have to fire on all cylinders if the Wallabies are going to match the points the All Blacks will put on the board. The threat from the All Blacks is across the board. if i was Robbie Deans i would pay no attention whatsoever to who the All Blacks were picking and i would choose a team that i thought would go out and get me a four try bonus point. Quade Cooper needs to be in that side if the Wallabies are going to unlock the All Blacks on multiple occasions. Hansen will look to pressure Genia, close down that inside channel where Ioane will look to link with him. Beale is going to have to play out of his skin to spark those outside backs and imo he is the most crucial player with his speed and slight feet he could cause Nonu some trouble out at center. The Chiefs showed how effective a positive defence tactic could be by shutting Ellis and Carter out of the game. Robbie Fruean was non existent and Crotty couldn’t fire off backfoot ball and i think Fruean and Crotty have more punch then Horne and Faianga so they will really struggle if the Ab’s put pressure on Genia’s run. Barnes will do what Barnes does, but i don’t think it will be enough to trouble the All Blacks. Risk vs reward is what it’s all about in this game, and the Wallabies have taken no risks in this team selection and i see them getting little reward. Cooper and Hooper are the key to a threatening Australian side, neither are in the starting lineup.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
The RC. Kinda like the GC might attract the Aunties brooo.
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
I took Spiro's one liner as another cheap-shot at Europe and it's rugby. This said, i agree with you re the name of the comp'. It's dull and childish. But as Mr Spiro says, "The name leaves open the possibility of a lucrative sponsorship as in The —- Rugby Championship. ". Right. I hope I will never see the day the 6 nations is called' the __ 6 nations' or Twickenham, Murrayfield etc renamed after a sponsor's name like it often happens in the southern hemisphere. The brand of rugby played in the 6 Nations may be very weak according to some, but at least European nations have kept a bit of dignity and pride and not sold their soul and history to sponsors. (yet)
Sage
Guest
The Great South Land embraces all Kuruki. Even the smug who should be kicked up the arse and sent home. Easy living choice for anybody to make, even dullards.
Darwin Stubbie
Guest
Yeah right - you don't know your Wallaby rugby that well .... Aust has always relied heavily on their backs living off poor possession and a pack that is more often than not getting beaten up .... Deans disarmed the wallabies of their one historical strength at the w/cup and he's continued down the same path in this years tests ... If he attempts to play the percentages against the kiwis on Sat they'll get humped
Kuruki
Roar Guru
There is no place like home. But sadly for some of us who had too much fun during school NZ just doesn't offer a second chance. Australia however does. opportunity to earn good money that you could only dream of in NZ is why most of us move here. NZ is still my favorite place in the world i just need to set myself up before i can go home. Australia for me is like a one night stand, i will use you abuse you and then go home and never see you agaIn. hahahaha
Jason
Guest
"The Rugby Championship in every way is a harder and superior tournament than the Six Nations and deserves its definitive title." No competition deserves this pathetic, unimaginative title.