The line “the most even season since” has been repeated ad nauseam from punters and pundits alike throughout 2012, but as we enter a long-awaited finals series, we’re going to find out if it’s actually true.
Hawthorn are the legitimate premiership favourite, and warmly so after finishing on top of the ladder with 17 wins and a percentage of 154.59.
Unlike Sydney and Adelaide, who finished with the same amount of wins, Clarkson’s men did it the hard way. The Hawks earned their McClelland Trophy with repeat matches against top six teams Sydney, Collingwood, West Coast and Geelong.
The Hawks will account for a struggling Pies outfit this week, taking into the match confidence from two victories by a combined twelve goals over them already this year.
As added incentive, if any were required, the pain of last year’s preliminary final loss to the same foe still burns deep.
The loss of Brent Guerra will have an impact, but the round 17 demolition of Collingwood was achieved without him, and there are several able replacements to take his place.
Expect Suckling, Birchall, Gibson, Young and Burgoyne to share the kick-in duties in his absence.
Hawthorn have beaten every other finalist this year except one, and certainly fear no team.
But of course the spectre of Geelong looms large in the minds of every person within the brown-and-gold army.
If the Hawks do somehow stumble along the way, then September could well see a particularly even finals series.
Adelaide have been good enough to turn a fortunate draw into second spot on the ladder, delivering with it a home final and second chance if they can’t get over the Swans.
Most supporters won’t mind if their team has to face the Crows in a final, and they’re the most likely candidate in the top four for a straight sets exit if there’s going to be one.
Adelaide haven’t beaten a legitimate side away from home in the second half of the year and have recorded losses to North, Geelong and Brisbane on the road in this time.
They are in control of their destiny however, and have the chance not to travel until the grand final if they’re good enough.
I count four match-winners in their midst, which I define as players who can turn a game in fifteen minutes, and hit the scoreboard while doing so.
Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane, Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett are the names in question, and if these guys click at the right time they can have an impact, but one senses they’ll have to catch the opposition on a down day.
Sydney are yet to convince many sceptics, and after losing three of their last four home-and-away matches it’s a reasonable position to take, especially considering that two of them were in their home state.
While Mike Pyke has been a presence and Lewis Roberts-Thompson has averaged a goal a game as a key position role-player, it’s hard to see any team with a forward line containing these two, an out-of-form Adam Goodes and the erratic and injury-clouded Sam Reid standing on the premiership dais come September 29.
The Swans have their mental issues too, most commonly found in matches at the MCG, against Collingwood, and in close matches against strong opposition. Chances are they’ll need to overcome all three to get into a grand final.
The Pies were supposed to be on a slow burn this season, building to peak at the right time of year. As is usually the case though, a side with an interrupted and injury plagued pre-season is finding the task beyond them.
They’re coming into the finals off the back of two losses in their last three games, with the win being a largely unimpressive 32-point victory against Essendon, a side against which a ten goal margin is seen as a failure these days.
But Collingwood is a battle-hardened outfit with extensive finals experience. This will keep them in the race for a long while, as will a host of on-ball stars, but it won’t shock to see them fall victim to an inglorious end.
West Coast are finding some semblance of form at the pointy end of the season, and it’s fair enough to say that injuries have robbed them of a top four and possibly top two finish.
They are a defensively sound team with a reasonably deep midfield and viable forward targets.
While they weren’t disgraced against Hawthorn on Friday night, they never legitimately threatened either, and both sides seemed to be more about self-preservation in the second half.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, they’re going to have to win three matches on the road against top four teams in order to win the flag, and it’s quite simply not going to happen.
They’re a watch team for next year though, while they still have the ageing Cox, Kerr, Embley and Glass at or near their best.
Geelong are most people’s wildcard, and it’s not a hard opinion to reach.
Most of the team seem to have been playing in premierships since the days of black and white TV, and with a nine match winning streak over the prohibitive premiership favourite, can they be truly discounted?
They should beat Fremantle at the MCG this Saturday night, and at $1.30 favourite it would be some sort of upset if they didn’t. Beyond that is getting on a plane to Adelaide or Sydney and if successful, coming back to a well-rested Hawthorn or Collingwood.
I’m not certain they’re playing well enough to beat four finalists in a row, and I expect that if they do happen to run into the Hawks at some point, the Kennett Curse will finally be overturned, and probably in emphatic fashion.
Fremantle and North round out the final eight, and both teams will be travelling via air this weekend, starting as despised outsiders.
The Dockers are at least coming in off the back of some hot form and can give the Cats a shake, while the Roos are merely stumbling in, their defeat of the Pies in round 21 appearing to have been their grand final.
So, are we entering an even September, full of classic clashes and epic encounters, or will Hawthorn make it a one-act affair?
My money is on the latter, as it’s been from the start of the year. Although they’ll have to defy an interesting statistic that has seen only five of the last sixteen minor premiers take home the medallions on grand final day.
While hopes are always high at this time of year, not every finals series can be a truly great one, and this September may actually not provide the best football we’ve ever seen.
But Hawthorn fans won’t care less when their team is victorious on the final day.
penguin
Guest
Great post EddyJ; you are Nostradamus!
Tom of Darwin
Guest
I overlooked the QF last year, I agree that was all the cats.
John
Guest
Tom, Firstly I must say that I have only just picked up on this webpage & happy to see good conversations about footy rather than the usual crap that gets posted. Well done to all. Your comments are also very good & especially what you are saying about the Cats v Hawks however I am sure the Hawks weren't thinking that way in last years QF. I agree that it will be tough for the Cats and suspect they wont make the GF (likewise Pies) mainly for the reasons you have pointed out. It will be an interesting few weeks & I am so looking forward to it.
Tom of Darwin
Guest
True John, I probably have written them off a bit, probably based on on the fact that it is so difficult to win outside of the top four. Geelong will have to play either Sydney or Adelaide away, two teams beaten in recent time but the home ground advantage is strong. This will be the hardest pathway to a GF Geelong have had in recent times, and winning the semi-final will only put them in front of a rested and waiting Hawks/ Pies outfit. If its Hawks, look out, and if its the pies, then they would be red hot having just beaten the Hawks. As an Adelaide fan I would prefer to play Geelong in the GF than Hawthorn, at least Geelong would be 'away' as well, but would most like to play Collingwood as there is nothing sweeter than beating the pies (except thrashing Port of course). You know how Hawthorn hasn't beaten Geelong since the GF, well I suspect it is completely psychological, the cats are so fired up everytime they play, but the Hawks are so relaxed knowing that they won the flag! It's like they are laughing at the cats! That interesting record won't count in a prelimin, but I guess that's why everyone wants to see that match up. Everybody's comments on Geelong being a danger side are spot on, but it will be a mighty performance to win the flag. Also I never mentioned North either, but I did make two punts on them this year, against St Kilda and against Collingwood, I have been impressed by them ever since they beat Adelaide. But along with Freo, the only thing they will get out of the finals is more experience for a crack at it next year.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
I didn't think North were bad against Freo. The inexperience got shown up brutally though, and I expect much the same ine the one final appearance. Sadly, my Kangas are no chance on Sunday. Against GWS, my guess is they were just flat having come off some serious highs in the last two months getting motivated to take on the Giants would have been difficult.
EddyJ
Guest
In the finals, anything can happen – if it didn't, well, we may as well give the cup to Hawthorn right now. But, on form and skill, it's really hard to go past the Hawks. The Hawthorn–Swans match was played under brutal pressure, where even handballs were being smothered. The Swans probably should have won, in the same way they should have won against Collingwood, but didn't. You don't get points for near misses. The Swan's hard lead up to the finals can be seen in two ways – it's hardened them up for the finals, or it has made them too tired for the finals – and, based on Saturday's match against Geelong, looks like it could be the latter. But, it's only one game and anything can happen next week. All this rubbish about Adelaide having a soft run should be disregarded. They are a good team – you don't win 17 games by being ordinary – but the game on Saturday will come down to who's the best on the day, and the coaching performance. I thought Longmire didn't coach well at all against Geelong – what was Tommy Walsh doing there? Should have been Mitch Morton or Jessie White. But, perhaps he was having an aberrant day and was really thinking about the finals. I don't think the Swans have fallen away yet – they've been brilliant this year, but their third quarter against Geelong was easily their worst performance in a long while. This question about whether they've fallen away will be fully answered on Saturday at Football Park. Anyhow, for all of those who are predicting easy victories for the favourites this weekend, ponder the following finals matches: Port Adelaide v Swans, 2003 (Qualifying Final) Port Adelaide v Collingwood, 2002 (Qualifying Final) St Kilda v Adelaide, 2005 (Qualifying Final) Hawthorn v Geelong, 2008 (Grand Final) West Coast v Collingwood, 2007 (Semi Final) What do they have in common? The overwhelming favourite got an unpleasant surprise and got spanked. The finals are like a mini-season at the end of the home and away matches, and expect the unexpected. If you're looking for an upset on the same scale, go for Fremantle to win against Geelong.
Mango Jack
Guest
You're right there, Richo. It could finish me off!
Mango Jack
Guest
Geelong upset someone? I fully expect them to be playing Hawthorn in the prelim final. Freo then Adelaide are well within them.
Sausages
Guest
Can't see the Hawks losing. Will play Adelaide. Would love to see Geelong win it. Saus.
Brian
Guest
i think some people are overating the Cats on seasons gone by. Even forgetting the early season they were neck and neck with the Swans at Kardinia around 3 qtr time, never mind the MCG or up in Sydney. They just beat Hawthorn and narrowly lost to West Coast, its good form but its not like they are blowing everyone away. They've also had the luxury of resting players during the season, if they do get past Fremantle and Sydney or Adelaide away after a 6 day break they will be hardly be fresh for the rested winner of Hawthorn and Collingwood
John
Guest
Tom, A good analysis but no where do you mention the Cats. I think you & many others are still underrating them.
Strummer Jones
Guest
I'd actually say Daylight have a good chance of doing the Hawks Redb. Broad, After, Before and Robbery have all had great games leading up to the finals, and with only Savings out of the side (he won't recover until 1st week October), they are looking 'hot', real 'hot'. Hopefully no night finals, otherwise they're stuffed.
TC
Guest
That's right hawker, people need to put into the backs of their minds whatever the cats did earlier in the season. One thing is for sure - the Cats are one of the very few teams in the final 8 who enter the finals series confident that they can more than match up with every other team in the comp (without it being an empty boast). The Geelong Football Club would have no fears about any of the teams in the top 8. TC
Redb
Roar Guru
Spot on Cam. Its Hawthorn then daylight, although Geelong might be a behind a tree waiting for the prelim to pounce. :)
Matt F
Roar Guru
I imagine that you've said that the last few times as well though!
Deep Thinker
Guest
I agree with all of the above - apart from the Deep Thinker bit :) At the same time, I don't think it is just about wins and losses. It is about peaking at the right time – as Hawthorn and Geelong seem to be doing. Collingwood, WCE and Geelong have all gone slightly backwards in terms of performance over the regular season and have been managing key injuries. In Collingwood’s case, they have also had a coach on his L Plates. Both teams are full of class and have the game to upset Hawthorn without it being a great surprise. Geelong’s season has been about the big picture. They miss Ottens more than anyone as their rucks is the big weakness they didn't have last year. Scarlett is now only a good player rather than elite player. Taylor Hunt has improved and while not quite Ling, has progressively filled the void as solid tagger. Experienced players have been rested throughout the year while more rookies have been played than any other established team (most won’t play in September but their exposure to the highest level explains to some extent the additional losses). BUT… Mackie, Duncan, Christiansen, Hawkins and Motlop have all stepped up big time compared to previous years. The old stalwarts have still been very good. So yes - on wins and losses - they have gone backwards. But, rucks aside, I don’t think they’ve lost as much as people think.
Strummer Jones
Guest
Seem to be a few readers are suggesting a boring or predictable finals ahead. Lets bring some maths into this as it may change some peoples minds (or have them heading to the TAB!). Taking out the TAB commission, current odds translate into the following probabilities: 1. 23% chance all the favourites win this week, so 77% chance there will be at least one upset 2. 1% chance all non-favorites win (lets make that zero) 3. If we throw out the Swans/Crows game, there is a 39% chance all three remaining favourites win 4.. 43% chance the Swans win 5. Freo are a 24% chance to win (hmmmm, I think they should be more) 6. 74% chance Hawthorn win and a 63% chance they at least contest in the GF In conclusion, the TAB suggests it is more likely than not (i.e. 51% or more chance) there will be one and maybe two upsets this week.
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
Agreed
hawker
Guest
Geelong are playing a whole lot better now than they were at the start of the year then when they lost to the crows. There was only a kick in the game at the scg. Collingwood have been playing in fits and starts and while Cloke played his best game for the year it took them 3 qtrs to subdue an essendon team in free fall.
Richo
Guest
Have faith, they aren't playing that badly. The Hawthorn/Collingwood matches could have gone either way. Gotta hope Jetta recpatures his early season form.