I’m not buying the suggestion Melbourne were a bit flat coming into their game against Canberra and were overdue to lose after having won 15 in a row stretching back to last season.
I’m buying the suggestion Canberra exposed and capitalised on a genuine weakness in the Melbourne side.
The Warriors had partially exposed the same weakness against the Storm in the previous round, but had failed to capitalise on it.
After adopting a plan that put them in the game with a genuine chance of winning, the Warriors blinked when they got a penalty close to the Storm line inside the final 20 minutes and kicked for goal to break a deadlock instead of going for a try and a possible six-point lead.
The Storm came back to beat them, as they usually do in such circumstances.
The Raiders didn’t blink, and went on to record a 24-20 win that was their third in a row over Melbourne in Melbourne.
We all know Canberra are dynamic out wide when they want to be. The trouble is they don’t put it together often enough.
But it was obvious they had gone in with a specific plan against the Storm, and they carried it out to perfection.
Raiders captain Terry Campese had given notice that they weren’t going to die wondering when he was quoted in a pre-game article saying they would “take a little bit out of the Warriors’ book” and “throw the ball around”.
It was more scientific than that, and seeing what the Warriors did would have had the effect of confirming Canberra’s belief rather switching a light on.
The Raiders still had to do the hard work first, but they knew that if they concentrated on getting the ball out wide at every genuine opportunity they would be a chance of winning.
Some of Melbourne’s defenders out wide have got real problems, and if the attack can move sharply to get the ball to a player on the outside of his opposite man then they are in business.
It’s not some willy-nilly approach.
Blake Ferguson was a nightmare for the Storm defence, and fellow centre Jack Wighton enjoyed himself as well.
What the Raiders did wasn’t a fluke. When they beat the Storm in Melbourne last year, wingers Edrick Lee and Sandor Earl scored three and two tries respectively, and centre Ferguson and fullback Reece Robinson one apiece.
Again this time, it was the outside backs scoring the tries. Ferguson got two, and Wighton and Robinson one apiece.
The last try actually came from a break out of nothing down the centre of the field by Robinson, but that is just another indication of how dangerous the Raiders can be. Robinson has a great step and super acceleration.
Canberra’s problem is to do with consistency. They haven’t been able to establish any in recent years. There have been periods of fantastic highs and awful lows.
The teams that are prepared to simply get into the grind with Melbourne and hope for the best are going to lose the vast majority of times, because Melbourne are too good at that.
And some teams are obviously better equipped to challenge them out wide than others.
But what both the Warriors and Raiders have proved in recent weeks is that you’ve got to try to be inventive against the Storm or forget about it.
The challenge for the often-frustrating Raiders will be to back up the win over Melbourne with another strong performance at home against Newcastle on Sunday.
The challenge for the Storm, not just on the road against Penrith on Sunday but over time, will be to try to make the necessary adjustments to their defence out wide.
They are still the competition favourites, but for opponents with the necessary ability and nerve there is real hope.
Myles Stedman
Roar Guru
Yes Canberra exposed Melbourne and put themselves into a position to win the match, but Melbourne (Cameron Smith rather, of all people) handed the game to them. He two missed kicks out wide which would've had the match leveled, and I think most would've backed Melbourne and Cooper Cronk in golden point.
Bogga
Guest
To adopt the strategy of tossing it around out wide and taking more risks will lose a lot more games than the Storm's game plan will. It's a risky plan and needs to be done well all year to make the top 4, let alone win the do-or-die finals. It would be a risky gameplan to adopt. Ideally, you'd be able to change game plans game to game, depending on the opposition, but that's easier said than done, besides a few minor tinkers here and there. If the Storm manage to tighten up their defence with a bit more application at the business end of the season, they'll be very hard to beat. As for other teams replicating the Raiders and the Warriors, if they haven't done it in matches previous and don't have the same talent pool as the Warriors or Raiders, they'll be in trouble. If you play that kind of game badly, and the risks don't come off, the Storm will run in try after try, confidence will drop, players will go into their shells. It could get demoralising. If I was a coach trying this for the first time, I'd be telling the board first!
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
I don't know what it is about some extremely gifted players,when they play they do things other mere football mortals can only dream about. ferguson falls into that category,scoring tries from impossible positons by sheer unadulterated athleticism.Yet off the field,behave as though they hav just attended an all night party.
Greg prichard
Guest
I speak to brett white fairly regularly because he's a great bloke and gives you a real insight. He cant speak highly enough of how important campese is to what they do and he rates wighton as a potential superstar. He says robinson is a genuine team player who has still got heaps of improvement in him. He admits it has taken a while but he genuinely believes they are now coming to grips with what they have to do with their individual preparation and attitude to get that consistency that has been missing. White knows what it takes to reach the top and he reckons the raiders have great potential if they can finally clear that consistency hurdle for good.
Dr NRL
Guest
Right ... Stuffed it up, it's the Monday at AAMI.
Bazzio
Roar Guru
Raiders also defended very well against a side renowned for exposing any and every defensive weakness. So many teams beat the Dragons simply by running at Nightingale's wing, and it's a great relief to know the Dragons aren't alone in P!55weak wing defence.
Matt
Guest
It almost seems to basic I don't think anyone considered it. After the Broncos game other teams tried it with success. Storms attack has been ok, their defence is far worse than other years... is this the start of their downfall? I remember seeing an analysis video when St George were premiers. It was vs the Eels. LITERALLY the entire St G defence was condensed into one half of the field (eels were about 20 out from their line). They started passing it wide, then Moi Moi just straightened up. They had a 5 on 1 overlap!!! This is absolutely playing into your opponents, and is what teams did to St George, and what teams do to Melbourne. You can't batter ram your way through tight defence. What if the only reason they have been so good, is because most teams play they way they want them to play, too busy trying not to lose, they aren't trying hard enough to win? *mind blown*
Matt
Guest
Yet another name on the "hasn't reached full potential" list.
Haz
Guest
Nope. Manly play Melbourne on Monday 20th May. (and then play Canberra 5 days later, on the Saturday 25th).
stormtrooper4
Guest
This might be the best strategy to adopt against melbourne but the problem is that no one will, the strategy melbourne have will beat most teams and lose to a few like warriors and knights.
Cameron
Roar Guru
Another season ending injury would ruin him. Fingers crossed he gets a full season under his belt. He's very talented.
planko
Roar Guru
I think no one has mentioned it cause no one wants to put the hex on him but they are a different side with Campo back. The tackle 5 options especially. Such a calming influence.
planko
Roar Guru
Manly are not playing them on Friday night ?
Bearfax
Guest
Melbourne can be beaten but I think the issue here is about Canberra. This team has been for the past few years the most enigmatic side in the comp. Potentially, with some of the players they have, they should be serious contenders for a top four position, but their underachievement, their inconsistency you mentioned, lets them down time and again. They dont usually seem to travel well, but then all of a sudden you'll get a very special effort from them and you'll be asking yourself, like I do, why this team consistently fails to be a major challenger. Perhaps the infusion of some of their outstanding junior talent has been long overdue. There are others I would be looking at like their clever halves in U20s, especially....I think his name is Milward of Milford. He is something special. Perhaps they just need some wise heads on the field to temper the talents of these youngsters and perhaps Campese's return to guide them around is just the ticket. Watch out. This team could suddenly explode in the second half of the comp and become a real threat.
Tru Blu
Guest
Geez Jack Wighton and Fergusson are future superstars, they did a number on Oneill & Chambers in this game. Hodges & Inglis would be the ultimate test tho.
turbodewd
Guest
Are we sure that the Raiders beat Melbourne?! I saw a team decked out in white and blue...no lime to be seen!
Cameron
Roar Guru
I believe the match against the Broncos was when the weaknesses started to really show. I don't understand the reason teams try to tough it out against Melbourne. It is proven it doesn't work. Even the Bulldogs in the grand final didn't chance their arm like they usually would have throughout the season. Though I do give credit to Cronks kicking game in that match. O'Neill isn't great in attack and his defence... lacking. You're right no selection for him please. Will Chambers though can do both and although having been exposed in defence, has, the necessary ability to counter that with attack.
Dr NRL
Guest
I agree about consistency with the Raiders, and this article says more about how good the Raiders can be than the fact they beat the Storm. I think I had them 6th in the minor premiership. No risk of missing the finals. The Raiders are a bit like the Rabbitohs for mine, who need to work on staying in the game mentally for 80 minutes so that they can draw on that practiced 'habit' in the tough games in September. The Raiders version of that is consistency. They can be a real force in September (like last year) and are a better team now too. But if they don't become more consistent, they, like the Rabbitohs, can easily fall at the last or second last hurdles. Can't make it up in the finals.
Dr NRL
Guest
Either way, they'll be delighted Manly are playing the Roosters on a Monday night before their Friday home game. They'll want to win that one, too, because I think the Roosters will get them in rd 10.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Punt I hope you're right. My biggest issue with Canberra is that just continue to let themselves down with consistency. Let's face it, the Rep season shouldn't hurt them with only Shillington likely to be picked if he's fit. They are in a good position to contend. But again that word consistency......