The Carlton Football Club is further away from a premiership than at any time in the last decade. Since 2002 in fact, when they finished last with three wins.
Of all the places to be exposed, the last place you want it to happen is Friday night football on the MCG in a clash of the most bitter traditional rivals.
75,000 people at the ground, countless more on television. Utter humiliation at the hands of an old foe and in the face of all watching.
What has kept the Blues in most games this year, along with the defensive mindset that Mick Malthouse instils, is the evenness of their team. An okay midfield. An okay attack. An okay defence.
But that’s all they are. Solid. Not bad. Average.
Malthouse was ostensibly brought in to win a flag, or at least to fast-track it happening. Brett Ratten was seen to be a coach that had done okay (there’s that word again), but couldn’t elevate this proud club to the next level.
It’s clear now that Malthouse has to rip the list apart and start again. It’s going to be a long haul. Does he have the stomach for it?
The first step is to trade out Jarrad Waite.
When he’s fully fit and has avoided suspension, he is one of the most dangerous key forwards around. There are few better contested marks in the game, and he attracts the ball in a forward line bereft of genuine alternatives.
The problem is he’s too important to the Blues when he’s playing. When not there, like on Friday night after being subbed off with injury, they are completely lost. He’s played 31 of a possible 60 matches since the start of 2011.
He’d fit in perfectly at Fremantle, where structure is as important as personnel. He could complement Matthew Pavlich and Chris Mayne when available rather than be the main man.
The rest of the Carlton forward line relies heavily on Eddie Betts, Jeff Garlett and Chris Yarran, three of the top five goalkickers at the Blues this season. Seldom do they all fire at once.
Betts has been the most consistent of the three overall, but has struggled for impact in an injury-interrupted season. Turning 27 at the end of the year, he won’t be improving. Garlett has been the pick of the bunch in 2013 after a poor 2012.
Chris Yarran is the great enigma, capable of dazzling, match-winning feats, but down on form and discipline enough to have been the sub twice in the last month and being dropped in between times.
He’ll have to work hard to break the label of sook, and his reaction to being named the sub against Essendon in Round 11 typifies his football club. It’s always someone else’s fault at Carlton, rarely do they look inward and accept responsibility.
Matthew Kreuzer is the number one ruckman at the Blues, and at 24 years of age we still don’t know if he’s going to be a gun, a very good player, or just average for his position. Far from the worst against Collingwood, and capable of enormous impact, he’s one of many in his team that plays nice football, and too often an entire match can pass without feeling his influence.
Robbie Warnock is rotting away in the VFL due to being purely and simply a tap ruckman. He can’t play in tandem with Kreuzer because it would mean sending the latter forward where he struggles. Shaun Hampson has been given chances as a forward/ruckman but it isn’t a natural fit.
Two of these three should be thrown up as trade bait.
In defence, Lachie Henderson is now the prime tall, and has grown into an accomplished footballer in a Tom Lonergan sort of way. Michael Jamison has always been overrated by Carlton people, but is still a solid defender, albeit another player getting on in years that struggles for continuity.
Andrew Walker has provided run and penetration from defensive fifty, finally settling into a role befitting his obvious natural talents. Zach Tuohy is another who sometimes gets more plaudits than he deserves because he wears a Carlton jumper.
Pre-season, the Blues faithful would have had you believe Jeremy Laidler was an All-Australian in waiting and Nick Duigan was an integral part of the defence. Under the new regime they’ve played one match apiece.
There are another half dozen who rotate through the backline, be they youth or experience, but none of them are exceptional in what they do.
Defence is the least of Carlton’s problems though, especially under the teaching of Malthouse.
Chris Judd has been the superstar of the midfield ever since he crossed from West Coast. The theory was for him to teach and protect the string of number one draft picks, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Kruezer, and turn them into a premiership-winning centre-square quartet.
It has happened, and won’t before Judd retires. The dream has turned into a nightmare.
When they write the book on this period of Carlton’s history, trading for Judd will ultimately be seen as a failure. Josh Kennedy, currently leading the Coleman medal race, would be far more valuable to them now, and they could have used pick three to select someone like Patrick Dangerfield to be kicking it to him.
Murphy is an elite player who has gone backwards this season, struggling to find the balance between attack and defence. As a result, both his disposals and tackles are well down.
Some players best help the team when allowed to free-wheel and be as offensively damaging as possible. Murphy is one of these. He has no problem putting his head over the ball, but doesn’t attack it fiercely in the way of a Dangerfield or Luke Hodge. It’s no coincidence that those two players have broken his bones in the last year or so.
Gibbs is another clean-cut citizen who hasn’t had the impact many expected, while undoubtedly having the talent to do so. Another who plays too friendly, when he and Murphy are working together running forward they can be untouchable, but too often his possessions aren’t damaging.
Brock McLean has been excellent in the last twelve months, but can only offer so much. Kade Simpson and Andrew Carrazzo, so important to a winning Carlton, will be 30 next year. Heath Scotland learnt his football playing with the early settlers. Time has run out for them all.
The rest of Carlton’s squad is filled with grinders and unproven youth. It’s an discouraging list profile for a side sitting 11th on the ladder with a 6-8 record.
Hard decisions will need to be made come seasons end. Football talk suggests the Blues are interested in trading for the first pick in the draft. It’s exactly what they need to do, offload some players to make them someone else’s problem.
Carlton aren’t poor in any area of the ground, but when it comes to challenging the best sides over four quarters, they simply aren’t good enough either.
The only way forward for the Blues is to go back.
Edders
Guest
Too right Macca, tearing this poor excuse for an article to shreds. Jamison has beaten most opponents and is Carlton's number 1 defender, And while people may say Henderson is in better form, Jamo will always take opponents no. 1 big forward and holds himself well. Defending, especially against key forwards is getting harder and harder with the amount of protection forwards are getting but Jamo has done very well this season. At the same time, I am also surprised with Malthouse not picking Duigan and Laidler, two players that had performed well over the two previous seasons. Also how Tom Bell hasn't got more of a look in this season while players like Bootsma (may be good in a few years but needs to put on weight before he can play on big forwards) and Kane Lucas who is a talented outside ball getter whose cannot tackle or run defensively and does not offer anything but outside run. Carlton has been competitive in most games this season and just need to find another gear. This article is typical of supporters attitudes after a loss. Teams lose, get over it, not the end of the world. We lost several games by close margins including games against teams that are supposedly much closer than us to the flag. We need list changes and pruning, but the idea of "ripping up the list and starting again" is reactionary and moronic.
Charlie
Actually, O'Keefe was available at the end of 2009. Carlton had pick 11 that year, but agreed early in trade period to trade that pick for Brock McLean. We ended up getting pick 12 as part of the Fev deal (used for Lucas), but decided against on-trading that pick. Also, O'keefe by then was looking at the Hawks.
Macca
Guest
MAtt F - great post and well argued - and while I agree with a lot of what you are saying I suppose the counter argument would be that why get so focused on getting a premiership by the time Judd goes? I think the blues would want to be building a team that is going to be good for longer and so instead of taking O'keefe and getting possibly closer sooner (and I emphasise possibly) they want to have player ready to take over from Judd like Lucas and Graham or from Betts like Yarran. As the blues list stands now they are going to lose the likes of Scotland Carrazzo, Simpson, Judd and Waite over the next couple of years and those players may well miss out on a premiership but they may have anyway (look at St Kilda or the bulldogs) and we could of just ended up with a bigger exodus and a bigger rebuild and worrying about whether Murphy, Gibbs & Kreuzer will get a premiership. Hopefully by the time Murphy and co get to their late 20's a Casboult, Mitchell or Rowe are playing the key forward slots, Lucas, Graham, Buckley, Bell & Cachia are running through the middle, Menzel, Yarran & Garlett are the live wires and Henderson, McInnes and Bootsma (or Watson) are holding down the backline together. Throw in another couple of draft picks on the way through and things won't be that bad.
Matt F
Roar Guru
2008 was one of O'Keefes better years actually, or it was at the time anyway. I'm not writing Yarran off as a player. I'm just saying that many people thought Carlton would be challenging for a flag between 2010-2014 or thereabouts. O'Keefe would have been more useful for Carlton than Yarran during this period. It's not a Yarran-specific comparison either. O'Keefe would have been more valuable to Carlton during that period than the vast majority of players taken from Yarran's draft. Obviously over a 10 year period this wouldn't have been true, but for a team expecting to challenge for a flag in under 5 years time, like Carlton were, an experienced player like O'Keefe would have been far more valuable. Trading Pick 6 probably could have netted Carlton a very high quality player at the trade table, whether it was O'Keefe or someone else. I'm not saying that Yarran and Lucas are duds as players. My issue with drafting them isn't their quality, but the roles they play. I think, and did at the time, that Carlton were already pretty well stocked in those areas (as well as having plenty of highly rated young talent) and that they would have been better off using those picks (whether through the draft or trades) to improve their weaker areas. Picks 6 and 12 could have been used (obviously not together as they were in separate drafts) to take some proven AFL talent that filled holes on the list and would have been ready to make an immediate impact as Carlton looked to be heading into their premiership window. Instead they were used on kids that, even if they do become very good players, probably won't be near their best until after some of Carlton's older stars (like Judd) are retired and their window is gone. For what it's worth, I don't think you guys need a massive rebuild, you're certainly nowhere near the St Kilda or WB level, but there are serious holes on the list. Whether the players currently on the list are able to fill those holes remains to be seen. It's possible, but they could also flop. We'll have to wait and see. My main concern for Carlton is in a few years time. There are a number of experienced players that are near the end. By the time the kids currently on your list are ready to go, if they are actually good enough in the first place, you may have to replace another batch of key players. From an outsiders perspective it does appear that the opportunity has been missed. I don't think you will slide to the bottom but I think the opportunity to win a flag in the 2011-2014/15 window, which looked a real possibility a few years ago, has been missed.
John
Guest
Joel selwood has been knocked out more than any other player, would you say he doesn't go hard enough? Johnno Brown got his face shattered twice, was that because the other bloke was harder at it? Saying someone is an average player, should be delisted or something similar is your opinion but to say Murphy is soft because his jaw broke in a hard collision is just disrespectful
Macca
Guest
Matt F - O'keefe would have been a great get and in hindsight worth pick 6 but at the time wasn't he out of form a little with the general thinking his best footy was behind him (just trying to work from memory here). And Yarran is only 22, let's give him a bit more time before we say it was categorically the wrong call. As for Lucas he too is showing some promise and if you lolok at his draft teams with higher picks did much worse and even a lot that went in the top 25 are performing worse than Lucas. I did want the blues to take Aaron Black but that hasn't been definitively shown to be a better pick just yet. As for rebuilding again once again just let's have a llok at a few of the blokes in the 2' who have been pushing for selection before we get too carried away.
Matt F
Roar Guru
Not sure how true that really is. The Swans won it last year and we hadn't made the Top 4 since 2006, though we were consistent finalists so were thereabouts. The Hawks won 2008 despite not finishing in the Top 4 for years as well. Even Geelong weren't consistently in the Top 4 when they won in 2007. They finished 4th in 2004 but that was it before they won it all in 2007. It can happen. That being said, I do think you're right that their window was never really open. They had a chance to force the window open a few years ago but I think they failed with their drafting/trading. They used high draft picks on the likes of Yarran and Lucas, despite them already being well-stocked in those areas. They would have been better off using those picks to draft, or trade for, a hard-bodied inside midfielder and/or a key forward. These have been their problem areas. For example they would have had Ryan O'Keefe if they had been willing to give up Pick 6 (which was used for Yarran.) Yarran has turned into a talented yet inconsistent small forward (which they already have a number of) with attitude issues while O'Keefe won the Norm Smith Medal last year and is still in sensational form for the Swans. Obviously Yarran has more years ahead of him than O'Keefe but, many people expected Carlton to be a contender from 2011+. O'Keefe would have been very valuable for them during this period, just as he currently is for the Swans. Certainly more valuable than Yarran over the same period anyway. Now other clubs have caught up to, and gone past, Carlton. I feel they've missed their opportunity and won't be ready to be a legitimate contender for a few years, by which time the likes of Judd, and a few others, will no longer be there and they may need to rebuild again.
Macca
Guest
It's not what you say Cameron it's the implication - yes you were careful with your words for the very reason that you indicate - you wanted to perpetuate the myth despite knowing the evidence doesn't support it.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Not for the first time Macca you're attributing words to me that I didn't write, as you can't see clearly through the haze of emotion. Please find where I called Gibbs an outside player who doesn't win his own ball? You'll note I was careful with my wording because I was aware of his stats - stats aren't everything my friend.
Franko
Guest
The last time Carlton won the flag Seal's "Kiss from a Rose" was number one in the charts...
Macca
Guest
And I see you really took you opportunity to make an enlightened contribution to the discussion.
Macca
Guest
Oh no you think I'm dumb! What am I to do, how will I live? Especially coming from a bloke who had the Lions making the 8 this year! How much footy have you played in your life Tom?
John
Guest
I cannot believe you brought up Simpson getting his jaw broken against Collingwood as an example of Carlton not being tough or hard at it. Simpson had played 158 consecutive games when he ran back courageously with the flight of the ball. Wellingham choose to hit him in the jaw with full force and was given 5 weeks by the tribunal (downgraded to 3). At the time it was labelled as the "worst dog act of the year" by fox footy. How can you possibly say that means he isn't tough. He performed the ultimate act of courage on the footy field and was only injured by a shocking hit that warranted 5 weeks by the tribunal. And this is after not missing a game in more than 6 years!
Macca
Guest
DOn't want to trade anyone but we just have to rebuild? Seems a bit contradictory.
Macca
Guest
Not sure how you rate "intent" when the team ranked number 2 in the league (before last weekend) in contested footy clearances and tackles doesn't have enough of it! Did you watch the Geelong game early in the year? Or the Essendon & Hawthorn games - even the Sydney game in the slop?
Macca
Guest
The players I am talking about are closer than anyone you would get in the draft (including Boyd). And who are the blues going to get in a trade? There are not too many on offer. Jamsion is just 27 so I think he'll be around for a few years and Simpson is 29 and looks like he has at least 2-3 years left of goods footy and Judd will probably go at least another 2. Of the players I am talking about bringing in (including Casboult) Casboult is 23, Mitchell is 21, Buckley is 20, Menzel is 19 and Graham is 19. All should be able to make an impact in the next couple of years and should be able to take over the roles left by the players you highlight as leaving.
Macca
Guest
For f..k sake Cameron - now Gibbs' tackles aren't hard enough and his contested ball isn't contested enough come on!! There is no shame in admitting you just regurgitated the cliche about Gibbs that he is an outside player that doesn't win his own ball without doing you homework but don't insult our intelligence with that rubbish! And it might be a bit hard to trade Hampson seeing he did his knee on the weekend!
TomC
Roar Guru
Possibly taking my comment a little too seriously there, Macca. But in all seriousness you make a lot of posts about Carlton. I get the impression you don't know much about footy apart from Carlton. And you struggle to make a lot of sense when you talk about Carlton. You can't take that last bit seriously. I think you're pretty dumb.
Jack
Guest
I think Dunoon ratten was an over reaction ... He was missing Half the team last uear
Knoxy
Guest
+1