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The Carlton Football Club is further away from a premiership than at any time in the last decade. Since 2002 in fact, when they finished last with three wins.
Of all the places to be exposed, the last place you want it to happen is Friday night football on the MCG in a clash of the most bitter traditional rivals.
75,000 people at the ground, countless more on television. Utter humiliation at the hands of an old foe and in the face of all watching.
What has kept the Blues in most games this year, along with the defensive mindset that Mick Malthouse instils, is the evenness of their team. An okay midfield. An okay attack. An okay defence.
But that’s all they are. Solid. Not bad. Average.
Malthouse was ostensibly brought in to win a flag, or at least to fast-track it happening. Brett Ratten was seen to be a coach that had done okay (there’s that word again), but couldn’t elevate this proud club to the next level.
It’s clear now that Malthouse has to rip the list apart and start again. It’s going to be a long haul. Does he have the stomach for it?
The first step is to trade out Jarrad Waite.
When he’s fully fit and has avoided suspension, he is one of the most dangerous key forwards around. There are few better contested marks in the game, and he attracts the ball in a forward line bereft of genuine alternatives.
The problem is he’s too important to the Blues when he’s playing. When not there, like on Friday night after being subbed off with injury, they are completely lost. He’s played 31 of a possible 60 matches since the start of 2011.
He’d fit in perfectly at Fremantle, where structure is as important as personnel. He could complement Matthew Pavlich and Chris Mayne when available rather than be the main man.
The rest of the Carlton forward line relies heavily on Eddie Betts, Jeff Garlett and Chris Yarran, three of the top five goalkickers at the Blues this season. Seldom do they all fire at once.
Betts has been the most consistent of the three overall, but has struggled for impact in an injury-interrupted season. Turning 27 at the end of the year, he won’t be improving. Garlett has been the pick of the bunch in 2013 after a poor 2012.
Chris Yarran is the great enigma, capable of dazzling, match-winning feats, but down on form and discipline enough to have been the sub twice in the last month and being dropped in between times.
He’ll have to work hard to break the label of sook, and his reaction to being named the sub against Essendon in Round 11 typifies his football club. It’s always someone else’s fault at Carlton, rarely do they look inward and accept responsibility.
Matthew Kreuzer is the number one ruckman at the Blues, and at 24 years of age we still don’t know if he’s going to be a gun, a very good player, or just average for his position. Far from the worst against Collingwood, and capable of enormous impact, he’s one of many in his team that plays nice football, and too often an entire match can pass without feeling his influence.
Robbie Warnock is rotting away in the VFL due to being purely and simply a tap ruckman. He can’t play in tandem with Kreuzer because it would mean sending the latter forward where he struggles. Shaun Hampson has been given chances as a forward/ruckman but it isn’t a natural fit.
Two of these three should be thrown up as trade bait.
In defence, Lachie Henderson is now the prime tall, and has grown into an accomplished footballer in a Tom Lonergan sort of way. Michael Jamison has always been overrated by Carlton people, but is still a solid defender, albeit another player getting on in years that struggles for continuity.
Andrew Walker has provided run and penetration from defensive fifty, finally settling into a role befitting his obvious natural talents. Zach Tuohy is another who sometimes gets more plaudits than he deserves because he wears a Carlton jumper.
Pre-season, the Blues faithful would have had you believe Jeremy Laidler was an All-Australian in waiting and Nick Duigan was an integral part of the defence. Under the new regime they’ve played one match apiece.
There are another half dozen who rotate through the backline, be they youth or experience, but none of them are exceptional in what they do.
Defence is the least of Carlton’s problems though, especially under the teaching of Malthouse.
Chris Judd has been the superstar of the midfield ever since he crossed from West Coast. The theory was for him to teach and protect the string of number one draft picks, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Kruezer, and turn them into a premiership-winning centre-square quartet.
It has happened, and won’t before Judd retires. The dream has turned into a nightmare.
When they write the book on this period of Carlton’s history, trading for Judd will ultimately be seen as a failure. Josh Kennedy, currently leading the Coleman medal race, would be far more valuable to them now, and they could have used pick three to select someone like Patrick Dangerfield to be kicking it to him.
Murphy is an elite player who has gone backwards this season, struggling to find the balance between attack and defence. As a result, both his disposals and tackles are well down.
Some players best help the team when allowed to free-wheel and be as offensively damaging as possible. Murphy is one of these. He has no problem putting his head over the ball, but doesn’t attack it fiercely in the way of a Dangerfield or Luke Hodge. It’s no coincidence that those two players have broken his bones in the last year or so.
Gibbs is another clean-cut citizen who hasn’t had the impact many expected, while undoubtedly having the talent to do so. Another who plays too friendly, when he and Murphy are working together running forward they can be untouchable, but too often his possessions aren’t damaging.
Brock McLean has been excellent in the last twelve months, but can only offer so much. Kade Simpson and Andrew Carrazzo, so important to a winning Carlton, will be 30 next year. Heath Scotland learnt his football playing with the early settlers. Time has run out for them all.
The rest of Carlton’s squad is filled with grinders and unproven youth. It’s an discouraging list profile for a side sitting 11th on the ladder with a 6-8 record.
Hard decisions will need to be made come seasons end. Football talk suggests the Blues are interested in trading for the first pick in the draft. It’s exactly what they need to do, offload some players to make them someone else’s problem.
Carlton aren’t poor in any area of the ground, but when it comes to challenging the best sides over four quarters, they simply aren’t good enough either.
The only way forward for the Blues is to go back.