Geelong’s demolition of Sydney at the weekend was a strong signal that back to back flags will be a tough proposition for the men from the harbour city.
The result means that Sydney now will more than likely face either the Hawks or Cats at the home of football, the MCG, in the first round of the finals.
The margin of defeat at Simmonds Stadium is not so much the cause for concern, rather the way in which the Cats outworked the Swans and outperformed them at their own game. It brought back memories from ANZ Stadium a couple of weeks earlier.
Sydney’s success last season can largely be put down to their constant hard work and constant high standards on the field.
They did not have the most talented list, though they almost always won the “one percenters” in each battle last season. That is, they made more tackles, effected more defensive spoils and smothers and displayed more lung busting chases on opponents, just to name a few.
Sydney was the best team in the competition last year, in terms of work rate and performing those small actions on the field that amount to a lot.
At this stage of the season, the same could not be said. Collingwood and Geelong have outworked the Swans in recent weeks and dominated them in terms of the one-percenters.
In both games the Swans were put under immense pressure. They bombed the ball long aimlessly in hope rather than with a specific target in mind and committed a number of uncharacteristic turnovers, particularly off half-back. Convincing losses resulted.
Sydney needs to remind themselves quickly of the attributes which brought them success last season.
Their powerhouse midfield, some members of whom have been down on form in the last few weeks, needs to set the standards and lead the resurgence.
Luckily, all is not lost and the Swans get a chance to atone this Friday against premiership favourites, Hawthorn.
Hawthorn has a more talented individual playing roster than Sydney and possesses two players who can change the outcome of a game on their own, in Buddy Franklin and Cyril Rioli. The Swans do not have the equivalent of a Franklin or Rioli at their disposal.
Victory on Friday night will not come down to a change of tactics on the Swans part. It will come down to the Swans outperforming the Hawks in terms of the one-percenters, rather than through flashes of individual brilliance. They did so in last year’s grand final and it determined the result. They must do so again.
I’m sure John Longmire is reminding the players of this right now…
Chris
Guest
Haha..... I love it..... Swans by 36pts over hawthorn... Too easy.... Watch hawthorn crumble this Friday... They are old and slow and it will show....
Cat
Roar Guru
Swans out in straight games is my prediction. I can't see them beating either Hawthorn or Geelong and their list is just not getting any fitter.
George J.
Guest
If the Swans cannot produce the form of their first encounter against Collingwood this season, when they were fear-less in their endeavors, I can't see them going too far in the Finals. That Win set them up as favorites for this years Flag. So Swans please produce that style and form again for your fans, and make it a Double-Header.
Winston
Guest
The Swans' biggest problem is they've run out of time. If there's another 5-6 weeks to go, the should rest some key players and bring them back in the last couple of rounds to get them match fit again. If they rest anyone this week, it's cutting too close to finals time to be mssing around; if they don't rest them though, then week 1 doesn't look good. I think their only chance is if Jetta comes back this week, gives them some spark and somehow drag them to win week 1. I think given the state of their injuries and how tired some midfielders look at the moment, it is imperative that they win week 1 - whereas last year towards the end they looked like getting stronger and stronger each week despite close losses that I think even if they had lost week 1 they would still have playe well backing up the week after. Real chance of a straight sets loss if they're not careful this year.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
I hate backmen who don't mark when possible. Just mark it every now and then Gibbo, it will change your life.
Matt
Guest
There certainly is sound thnking in the Swans needing another small forward. It worked for them in the past with Buchanan and Schneider feeding from Big Bad Barry's scraps. I'm not sure they'll want to trade a tall though (except I guess Jesse White has some more currency than previously) . It will be interesting, as without getting into any argument about COLA etc, they should have a bit left in the cap given the retirements of Bolton/Mattner/Morton and perhaps the delisting of a couple of other fringe players that will occur. Certainly enough to consider looking for an established small forward.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
Perhaps it is psychological. Before Tippett arrived they knew they didn't have a gun forward so the midfielders knew they had to kick some themselves. Perhaps now in the back of their mind they are thinking: "No worries, Kirt has got that one". Sydney has a very tall forward line, so if they mark it , great If they don't, the ball comes back out very quickly. Reckon Sydney should consider trading one of their big men to obtain one of Carlton's "mosquito fleet" aka (Betts, Yarran, Garlett) in the post season to mix up their forward line a bit.
Matt
Guest
totally agree rich_daddy. The problem swans have in attack is not that they are kicking to Tippett too much (given he is kicking plenty of gals), but that their midfield is not working hard enough to get up there, provide support and other options and most importantly kick a share of the goals. To me, recent games have shown the midfield looking very tired and jaded. I would never write them off, but I think a tough year has caught up with them, and I'm not sure they have the cattle, or anywhere near the form, to match it with the other top 4 teams. I hope I am wrong however!
Connor
Guest
Yes, but whoever plays Sydney will play freo in the prelim final (if the higher team was to win every finals match). Since freo are more dangerous and there is a second chance in the qualifying finals, I think they would rather play the dockers first.
Mango Jack
Guest
I think both Hawthorn and Geelong would rather play Swans than Freo at the moment, so there's still value in finishing 1st
Mango Jack
Guest
Hawthorn used to do the same with Buddy, always directing attack to him regardless of other better options. They have finally realised they have so many other options in Roghie, Gunston, Breust and others, and it plays havoc with the opposition defence. Swans will need to beat the Hawks in the middle if they are any chance. Give the Hawks enough 50s and it's goodnight.
doubledutch
Roar Pro
Not really, both teams wont be playing their fulll strength teams most likely. Hawthorne will finish 1 or 2 and it really doesn't matter since some argue that finishing 2nd is actually better.
Nick
Roar Guru
I think its almost certain that Sydney will play Hawthorn twice in two weeks. What should each team do? I think both teams will really assess their stocks at half time, and take it easy, rest some key players more, and start experimenting with possible finals tactics. Should be really exciting.
Grant Lawler
Roar Rookie
Rich_Daddy, that's a really good point you make about Tippett. The Swans have become too reliant on him. If they continue to just bomb it long to him on Friday, Josh Gibson will have a field day as third man up spoiling the contest and will almost certainly earn himself 3 points in the Golden Fist Award.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
Looks as though for the second year running Sydney will lose 3 of its last 4 games to Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn. However the difference this year is that they have not been competitive in those losses. Geelong and Collingwood played well, but the Swans looked second rate in both those matches. The inclusions of Kirt Tippett has been a double-edged sword. While Tippett's individual form has been good, the Swans are becoming too predictable when going into attack. The stat last week was they go to Tippett over 40% of the time, which is way too high. Part of their attacking strength in 2012 was their spread of goalkickers which also made their attack unpredictable. The midfiedlers need to lift their game and get back on the goalkicking list. Injuries are starting to catch up on the Swans as well, but it will be great if Lewis Jetta can back up this week. Not writing them off this year, but I think back to back flags is beyond them.
The Drum
Guest
If Hawthorn had 6-8 of its best players injured for a big percentage of the season where would they be on the ladder Any side would be down I think the swans have done a great job of even being in the top four in the circumstances So if Buddy or Cyril play good who cares its not a final I would let the reserve team play them and give the team a rest The most joyous sight last year in the final was Jetta in full flight bouncing the ball leaving Rioli in his wake No we have not got a Buddy or a Cyril in our team we Have Tippet and Jetta I hate the way people (journalists) carry on about the football THE AFL GRAND FINAL IS ABOUT LUCK WITH INJURIES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR for quite a few teams I think