Every year, there’s a small handful of AFL clubs that don’t just fail to meet expectations, they fall drastically below them.
In 2013, three clubs stood out.
The output of these teams was the furthest below what was or could’ve been expected of them.
Before we get into the top three, an honourable mention – if that’s the right term – to the one-win Greater Western Sydney.
The Giants were saved by the fact they were expected to finish last and more or less struggle for wins.
#3. Melbourne
The third-biggest disappointment was the Dees.
This writer said during the Mark Neeld saga that everyone got their Melbourne expectations way wrong this year. They were always going to be bad.
Given they lost so much experience over the break – and, despite reports, didn’t gain anywhere near enough to make up for it – they were never going to match their 2012 efforts of four wins, 16th place and a 67.5 percentage.
In the end, though, that they got nowhere near any of those three indicators was damning. They were more than just bad.
The Dees dropped to two wins, ended up three wins short of 16th and had a paltry 54.1 percentage – worse than Gold Coast in either of their first two seasons.
While the co-captains certainly worked hard, like others at the club before them they’re behind where most expected them to be after a few years in the system.
It didn’t help that the two big recruits of the past two years, Mitch Clark and Chris Dawes, either barely appeared or were never at full fitness. But these points are only part of the story.
For those wondering, yes, had Neeld continued and they remained this far off the pace, even his most ardent defender would have nothing.
In the end, both Neeld and Neil Craig had a 1-10 record in 2013. With the respected Craig having four cracks at the eventual bottom four versus Neeld’s one, the notion that Melbourne’s issues extend well beyond the coaches’ box has been well and truly validated.
#2. Carlton
The Blues have made it to September, which would normally give them a get-out-of-jail-free card in an article like this, but we know the events that transpired to get them there. They got lucky.
Basically, this is the same middle-of-the-road team we had at the end of last year.
Same number of wins – 11 – and virtually the same percentage – 108 down to 106 – and probably the same number of frustrated pre-season tipsters.
Mick Malthouse was meant to be an instant saviour. Pundits had his presence alone as a deciding factor that would push them up the ladder.
Some of us weren’t that spellbound, however it was difficult to picture another 11-win season.
Mitch Robinson, Chris Yarran and Lachie Henderson finally had 50 games under their belt at the start of the year. They’d blooded 12 debutants between 2011 and 2012.
They made the pre-season final despite acknowledging that players were still getting their heads around Mick’s game plan.
And they were also “that” team: the one that drops out of the top eight after a promising season and is now expected to bounce back with a vengeance.
The Blues ultimately lost more than they won at both home grounds, noteworthy given they had a winning record at the MCG in each of Brett Ratten’s final three seasons and also given Malthouse has stated he wants all the Blues’ home games there.
They lost twice to teams from the eventual bottom four, something that had happened just once between 2011 and 2012.
The way things have worked out, they have the opportunity to completely change perceptions about their year this weekend. Maybe they will.
But two weeks ago, when they were out of the finals race, this year was absolutely a disappointment. We shouldn’t lose sight of that.
#1. West Coast Eagles
The biggest disappointment of 2013, however, was the West Coast Eagles. Boy oh boy.
Injuries have hurt, but they do not explain going from a 16-win team to a nine-win team. They do not explain the conceding of 15 extra points per game.
The players who finished top ten at the Eagles’ best and fairest last year missed a total of 35 games.
Guess what? Those that made the Dockers’ top ten missed 37 this year. (The Blues’ top ten, for any angry fans still reading, missed 40. So there’s that.)
Injuries are most definitely a part of the slide, but to put 100 per cent of it on that one issue is to grossly misallocate blame. Let’s recap what went wrong.
West Coast slipped eight ladder positions.
They surrendered the Patersons Stadium fortress.
They registered not a single win against the eventual top eight.
Their final three games of the year were each losses by more than ten goals. Their highest score from those games was 43.
In Rounds 21 and 22 they registered their lowest ever scores at Patersons Stadium and the MCG. In Round 23 they lost to non-finalists Adelaide by 86 points – their biggest loss since Round 3, 2009.
It’s hard to believe this is the same team that was seen by some as flag favourites. Pre-season, seven club captains said it would be the Eagles they face in the grand final.
The only other side to register more than one vote was Hawthorn.
With a highly efficient forward line and an elite spine, you get the sense West Coast will assume the “that” team mantel going into next season.
There’s enormous potential for them to bounce back in a major way.
But as far as 2013 is concerned, the past 23 weeks are best forgotten.
Nev
Guest
Priddis Masten Rosa are battlers , Wellingham on the outside has added a little class and Shuey and Gaff are learning to wear tags they are still young ,but I agree , Eagles need to get a couple of quality midfielders with pace and polish , but they don't grow on trees ,we also need a small explosive forward As I mentioned before , hopefully with the new coach appointment, he will bring a few players and a recruiter that knows what he's doing It will be interesting to see who will coach
TomC
Roar Guru
Time for a rewrite?
Lroy
Guest
Mate, glad to see IM not the only one who thinks Priddis, Masten, Rosa et al are crap. Gaff is OK, Shuey has his moments, not sure about Scotty Selwood... our midfield is light years away from being a premiership force. 8 years, you might be right. hope not ;-)
Chris
Guest
West coast eagles... I remember deriding them at the start of the season... Them and collingwood... Saying that we had no midfield and collingwood Had no ruck..... It's good to be right.... :) Seriously we .... Years away ... They need at least 6-8 quality midfielders.... They won't just materialize out of thin air.... I'd be backing them to miss the 8 for years to come.
macca
Guest
Overly reliant on Judd? Look at the games he has missed in the last couple of years and see how many the blues have won and the opposition they have beaten.
macca
Guest
Who tipped the blues to be top 4 pre-season? A lot had them missing the 8 and there would of been very few having them top 4.
Floreat Pica
Guest
Strange argument SJ- hold fire on Carlton (tipped as top 4 pre season) who got in to the finals by dead-man's boots with their own coach writing the season off weeks earlier with "we dont care about ladder position", yet 'Collingwood will be lucky to win through' and a clear disapointment..?! Seriously?
feebie
Guest
Samual, Not only can't you spell your own name but you don't even know what a narcotic is. You can only shake your heads at these kinds of people.
Samual Johnson
Guest
Carlton is actually four wins away from the flag. When they are snuffed out, then bring out your disapointments, until then hold fire. For mine, Collingwood and obviously Essendon are disapointments. Collingwood will be lucky to win through to week 3, they have gone backwards with the Buckley appointment that is a given. Essendon is disapointing because they resorted to using narcotics to boost their performances. They have shamed football and are still trying to scam their way out of it. You can only shake your heads at these people. Karma is a coming.
Dean
Guest
Eagles are only one or two decent midfielders off a top 8 finish. They could turn it around very quickly (or equally be disappointing). They've lost a lot of midfield experience over the last few years. It wasn't so long ago that Judd, Cousins, Kerr and Embley were unstoppable. Kerr and Embley are now finished and they just haven't really replaced any of them. Selwood and Priddis are ok, but that doesn't make a top 4 midfield. Wellingham is a good outside player, but he's useless when he can't be fed the ball. Carlton are rubbish, they're a patchwork of a team, based around Judd, who's on his last legs. Murphy and Gibbs have been given an armchair ride and simply can't improve any more. There are some really terrible players getting regular games at Carlton that would be delisted at any of the top 4 sides. Melbourne are supposed to be a football club, but it's a bit like The Producers, they've done everything possible to ensure they're a flop. Leadership changes through either delistings or sackings. Incompetent recruiting and coherent future planning, non-existent player development and a crushing lack of morale. They're in a death spiral that will take more than a couple of years to recover from, if they can at all. But surely this year's biggest disappointment would be Essendon??!! They won a lot more games than Carlton and still didn't make the finals because of their own, possibly criminal, negligence.
Gecko
Guest
I'd go a step further than Rich-Daddy: Carlton and West Coast were the most over-rated teams in the comp coming into 2013 (Adelaide not far behind) and will be again coming into 2014. As Judd and Kerr struggle with age and injury in 2014, each will have only 1 quality midfielder (Murphy and Priddis) and no real capacity to run the ball against top teams. Michael Di Fab above notes the Eagles have "a highly efficient forward line" but they only have 3 good forwards (Darling, Kennedy and Le Cras) and often at least one of these is out injured. I disagree that the Eagles will "assume the “that” team mantel going into next season." Both Carlton and the Eagles will be lucky to make the 8 in 2014.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I see what ya saying Nathan, I however don't feel St Kilda one of the 3 biggest disappointments due to the fact they were expected to take a fair old slide down the ladder. They also showed at times a real will for the contest. Wasn't many games were they rolled over.
TomC
Roar Guru
I remember having a long argument with a Saints fan at the start of the season (NeeDeep, I think it was) who thought they were a good chance to play finals, whereas almost everyone else had them around the bottom four. I didn't expect them to be as weak as they were, though. Jack Steven making the all-Australian squad was an unexpected fillip for them, though.
Matt Webber
Expert
I had my Saints slotted for about 7 wins this year. They lost their fair share of close games. The Saints also showed - a bit like Gold Coast a few years back - young sides with a sprinkling of aged talent simply don't have the capacity to run out four quarters. Usually they mucked in, though and, man, did they circulate some younglings through their year. Frankly, given all but a decade of finals and a couple of close flag tilts, the Saints probably couldn't give a rats about win/loss this year. They'll simply be more concerned with getting miles into young midfield legs (very much the Pelchen way - work a pool of mids). They'll draft defenders this year. Next year will be a similar tale and they'll look for forward KP talent to cover as much as they can the demise of Riewoldt. Thereafter they'll begin the climb again. A two year bottom out after such a long run of relative success would be a massive coup. That their year was light for ladder success but heavy on consistent competitive effort would be construed as an early rebuild win. Brisbane continue to be the greatest disappointment for mine. They have been in nowheresville for far too long. North are a Top 4 side. That they were ultimately 10th-ish is as weird as it is unbelievable. Huge underachievers.
JohnD
Guest
Got to agree with North Melbourne. I don't think I've ever seen a team play so well across the whole of a season with so few wins and so many games they should have won but didn't.
macca
Guest
Matt - I am not saying the blues would beat the Swans but that game early in the year should not be taken as form - the weather was terrible and the Swans got an early lead and held on.
Matt
Guest
Yep hard to disagree Nathan - St Kilda are a long way from competing again, and frankly only a few of their younger players really look like they are good enough to drive them up the table again. Will need some seriously good recruitment and draft picks to ge them going again quickly.
Matt
Guest
Swans beat them easily earlier in the year, and I can't see that changing if they meet again in Week 2 of the finals. Doesn't matter as they won't roll the Tigers anyway.
Jack
Guest
Hopeful thinking I guess
TomC
Roar Guru
Well it's certainly not as simple as that! Who are these people who had these crazy expectations at the start of the season?