Don’t know much about horse racing but still want to pick the Melbourne Cup winner? What time does the 2013 Melbourne Cup start? Here are a few basic guidelines for the race that stops a nation, which begins at 3.00pm AEDT.
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1. 24 horses and weights – what do they mean?
The Melbourne Cup is a handicap race. This means every horse has been allocated a certain weight based on their perceived ability.
Handicapping is done so – all things being equal – every horse in the field will supposedly cross the line at the same time.
The first horse, number 1, carries the top weight. It has either won the Melbourne Cup before, or has gone close, or has won similar races.
The bottom horse carries the least weight.
The best horse does not necessarily win the Melbourne Cup. The horse that best beats the handicapper does.
It very difficult for the top weight to win a Melbourne Cup. Only one horse, that being Makybe Diva in 2005, has carried the top weight to victory since Rising Fast did so in 1954.
It is worth noting both Makybe Diva and Rising Fast are considered champions of Australian racing.
One kilogram is said to be worth about two lengths per mile travelled, but that is also quoted as a myth.
Regardless, Dunaden will carry top weight of 58.5kg in 2013, after winning with 54.5kg in 2011.
2. Owners, trainers, and quirks
Some owners and trainers target the Melbourne Cup. It’s one of the most prestigious races in the world, and comes with a $3.6m cheque for the winner.
Bart Cummings has won the Melbourne Cup 12 times and will be relying on Precedence to make the final field as his only runner.
Lloyd Williams (and trainer Robert Hickmott) is likely to have six runners – Green Moon, Sea Moon, Masked Marvel, Seville, Fawkner and Mourayan – in this year’s Cup.
He won it last year with Green Moon and conditions his horses to win the Cup.
He bypasses millions of dollars in prize money from autumn racing to exclusively target the Melbourne Cup in spring.
Gai Waterhouse has never won the Melbourne Cup – but it’s only in the last couple of years she has really put her efforts, and money, into it.
She’ll likely have the favourite with Fiorente, and a light-weight French horse, Tres Blue.
The quirks – Bart Cummings and Lloyd Williams can peak their horses, regardless of form.
Everyone else needs to show at least some good form to be given any hope.
3. Look for a last-start winner
11 of the past 19 Cup winners won at their previous start.
Of the likely runners, Fawkner, Sea Moon, Tres Blue, Voleuse Des Couers and Verema are all last start winners.
Others on the edge of making the field are Precedence and Ibicenco, but they will need others above them in the order of entry to pull out for them to make the final field.
The winners of the Lexus Stakes and Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday, Nov 1, must also be considered.
4. Overseas horses? You prefer them to have a loosener in Australia
Only five horses not trained in Australia or NZ have won the Cup.
Only one of those has done it without a lead-in run and that was Vintage Crop all the way back in 1993. The rest all had a race.
Of the international raiders, Simenon ran very well to finish second in the Herbert Power Stakes and Dandino ran second in the Caulfield Cup.
5. Don’t worry about local vs foreign jockeys
Some say local jockeys have a slight edge, but three of the past seven winners haven’t been from Australasia.
With its long straight, Flemington would have to be one of the easiest tracks for overseas jockeys to adapt to.
In Europe, most major tracks have straights much longer than Flemington’s so if you can ride in Europe, you can ride at Flemington.
6. Had a run and didn’t win? Trying again to win doesn’t happen often
Most horses that have tried this have failed.
Only one in the past 23 years has tried again and won – Brew in 2000. There are a number of those this year.
Fiorente, the favourite, is one. Red Cadeaux, which lost by a nose hair to Dunaden in 2011, is another.
And those that increase in weight don’t do so well, historically.
Fiorente, Red Cadeaux and Green Moon are all stepping up in weight from 2012. Dunaden drops in weight a tiny bit from last year but he still has to carry the top weight for the second year running.
7. The barrier
Barrier 1 is the closest to the running rail. Barrier 24 is as far out as you can get.
With the shortest distance from barrier to post being along the rail, in general, you’d prefer to be drawn closer to Barrier 1, rather than Barrier 23.
No horse has won from Barrier 18 before, while Barrier 7 has had 1 win only – in 152 runnings of the race.
On Saturday night, the barrier draw will be held for the 2013 Melbourne Cup.
8. Favourites and roughies
Only two favourites in the last 15 years have won – and that was Makybe Diva (in 2004 and 2005).
In fact since 1990, when the favourite has won the Melbourne Cup, the following year’s favourite has also come first.
But, in the history of the Melbourne Cup, the favourite has not won three Cups in a row.
Favourites have a relatively poor record when it comes to finishing in the top three.
13 favourites have run a place in the last 35 years – so with Sportsbet giving money back if your horse comes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, it could be an offer worth taking up.
Melbourne Cup betting favourites have won 32 times in 151 years.
Roughies paying more than $100 (100-1) have only ever won three times.
9. The winning age of a horse
The general rule is to stay away from horses which are seven years old or older.
In the past 30 years, only four seven-year-olds have won. No horse older than seven has won in the last 30 years and only two eight-year-olds have ever won, Toryboy in 1865 and Catalogue in 1938.
So, which horses might be too old?
2013 Melbourne Cup eight-year-olds – Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Precedence, Mourayan.
2013 Melbourne Cup seven-year-olds – Dandino, Jet Away, Green Moon, Simenon, Foreteller.
In the history of the Cup however, the most successful age group has been five-year-olds.
Five-year-olds have won the Cup 46 times, four-year-olds have won 43 times, six-year-olds have won 28 times, three-year-olds have won 23 times and seven-year-olds have won 10 times.
10. The horse’s name (a myth?)
History suggests a horse with a one word name will win the Melbourne Cup.
In its 152 runnings, 86 winners have had a one-word name. 61 winners have had a two-word name and only five winners have had a three-word name.
But, of course, those statistics fail to indicate how many horses in each Melbourne Cup had a one-word, two-word or three-word name.
11. Silk colours
Black is best when it comes to winning colours – with 17 jockeys wearing silks that were predominantly wearing black.
Navy blue and royal blue are the next best, with 15 and 14 wins apiece.
2012’s winner wore the navy blue of Lloyd Williams.
12. The weather
The weather will have an impact – some horses love a mud track, some horses much prefer to run on a good track.
The forecast so far is for cool, dry weather for the lead-up and for the day of the big race. This will likely mean a hard track, known as a ‘Dead’ or even a ‘Good’ track – which is a racing term for how hard the track is.
The Roar will have a full preview ahead of the race, which will cover the chances of the horses, taking into account weather.
Melbourne Cup 2013 Weather Forecast, prediction and precipitation
Best of luck for the Cup!
OFFICIAL 2013 Melbourne Cup FINAL FIELD (in order of entry)
|
No |
Horse |
Trainer |
Jockey |
Barrier |
Weight |
|
1 |
DUNADEN (FR) |
Mikel Delzangles |
Jamie Spencer |
1 |
58.5kg |
|
2 |
GREEN MOON (IRE) |
Robert Hickmott |
Brett Prebble |
10 |
57.5kg |
|
3 |
RED CADEAUX (GB) |
Ed Dunlop |
Gerald Mosse |
23 |
56.5kg |
|
4 |
SEA MOON (GB) |
Robert Hickmott |
Steven Arnold |
7 |
56.5kg |
|
5 |
BROWN PANTHER (GB) |
Tom Dascombe |
Richard Kingscote |
6 |
55kg |
|
6 |
FIORENTE (IRE) |
Gai Waterhouse |
Damien Oliver |
5 |
55kg |
|
7 |
FORETELLER (GB) |
Chris Waller |
Craig Newitt |
15 |
55kg |
|
8 |
DANDINO (GB) |
Marco Botti |
Ryan Moore |
4 |
54.5kg |
|
9 |
ETHIOPIA |
Pat Carey |
Rhys McLeod |
14 |
54.5kg |
|
10 |
FAWKNER |
Robert Hickmott |
Nicholas Hall |
8 |
54.5kg |
|
11 |
MOURAYAN (IRE) |
Robert Hickmott |
Brenton Avdulla |
19 |
54.5kg |
|
12 |
SEVILLE (GER) |
Robert Hickmott |
Hugh Bowman |
9 |
54.5kg |
|
13 |
SUPER COOL |
Mark Kavanagh |
Corey Brown |
13 |
54.5kg |
|
14 |
MASKED MARVEL (GB) |
Robert Hickmott |
Michael Rodd |
2 |
54kg |
|
15 |
MOUNT ATHOS (IRE) |
Luca Cumani |
Craig Williams |
22 |
54kg |
|
16 |
ROYAL EMPIRE (IRE) |
Saeed Bin Suroor |
Kerrin McEvoy |
11 |
54kg |
|
17 |
VOLEUSE DE COEURS (IRE) |
Michael Moroney |
James McDonald |
21 |
54kg |
|
18 |
HAWKSPUR |
Chris Waller |
Jim Cassidy |
18 |
53.5kg |
|
19 |
SIMENON (IRE) |
William Mullins |
Richard Hughes |
12 |
53.5kg |
|
20 |
IBICENCO (GER) |
Peter G Moody |
Luke Nolen |
17 |
53kg |
|
21 |
VEREMA (FR) |
Alain de Royer Dupre |
Christophe Lemaire |
3 |
53kg |
|
22 |
DEAR DEMI |
Clarry Conners |
Chris Munce |
16 |
51kg |
|
23 |
TRES BLUE (IRE) |
Gai Waterhouse |
Tommy Berry |
20 |
51kg |
|
24 |
RUSCELLO (IRE) |
Ed Walker |
Chad Schofield (a) |
24 |
50kg |
Slane
Guest
No disrespect intended, but are you singing a different tune now?
Martyn50
Roar Rookie
Red CADEAUX. My form is slipping. 1st last year. 2nd this
Alfred Chan
Expert
No problem, Jerry. My full analysis of ever horse is here: http://www.theroar.com.au/2013/11/04/melbourne-cup-2013-individual-horse-analysis-tips-and-ratings/ But I've gone: 1. Royal Empire, 2. Sea Moon, 3. Dear Demi and 4. Seville. Good luck!
jerry nelson
Guest
hi alfred chan, am here in Papua new guinea and hoping if can give me some tip before the race
Floyd Calhoun
Guest
I hope that in the name of all that's good & decent, that Gai's horses run good races.............. Preferably 6th & 9th! Or somethingl like that.
Mossy
Guest
Cheers all for the great read. Does anyone know if an apprentice has (Schofield #24 Ruscello) has ever won a melb cup?
Alfred Chan
Expert
Hi nanette, Red Cadeaux and Hawkspur are the only horses in the field officially classified as chestnuts. I hope that helps!
nanette
Guest
Which horses are chestnuts please?
kurt mcguire
Guest
if dandino had a good australian jockey on it i believe it would almost be a sure thing esp with the draw but i cant help but think of the impact of having a overseas rider in such a tatctical race will have a huge part in the outcome of where it finishes, i think dandino is the best horse in the race at this point in time but will most likely not back it for this reason.
Peto
Guest
Had Fawkner pencilled in before I read this, more confident now. Hawkspur only danger(only my thoughts), although will have to overcome barrier 18 which no horse has won from. I tend to bet against the run so it's due to salute!
Maddie
Guest
So i'm guessing you're going with brown panther then???
lozza
Guest
Great work Alfred. i feel that this years Cup is one of the most open in recent memory! Having had a little glance at form on the race since the Cox Plate, i cant seem to narrow it down at all! The two favourites dont seem well priced given the depth we have - the "Gai Curse" (2 second placings in 20 years) doesnt help nor as has been pointed out the gut busting run the Cox plate, add to that an extra 1.5kg to last years impost and Fiorente simply doesnt gel. Gai seems intent on throwing everybody on the horses back - Macdonald, Tommy Berry, Nash, Shinn and now Oliver? I dont get how trainers just cant stick with one person? Smacks of the desperates to me. Mount Athos - his price astounds me - beaten 3 lengths last year cops the same weight, one year older and his international form looks worse? it must be the Williams factor for all that confidence - Cumani horses seem unlucky too in the Big One. Hawkspur (4th fav) - cant recall the last time a 4YO won it off the back of a Queensland Derby, winning at at mile in Sydney since doesnt convince me about his chances - also the fact that he needs luck in running is a negative. Add to that Waller doesnt have the CV as regards training any type of major Cup or group one winners in Melbourne for me either at this point in time. I also dont think that Jimmy Cassidy is up to it any more. Dandino - looks a great shot - pity Williams isnt staying with him. Voleuse - i think of Septimus back in 2008 - flop, i do like to see OS horses to have an Australian run - ditto Verema. Just on Voleuse/Verema - seem unfairly handicapped for mares. Still they do need to be considered. Lloyd - well he has a posse of chances - Fawkner to me looks the best rater, Sea Moon and Seville very strong chances also. Not as keen on Masked Marvel or last years winner - not too many win with over 57kg!in the last 40 years. Horses such as Dear Demi, Tres Blue do have claims and are at nice double figure odds. Jet Away - i cant see why with Boss in toe he cant be a real threat - still not understanding Oliver's rush of blood - i've watched the CC about 5 times and to me that horse didnt seem that fired up - as in visibly reefing and pulling - sure i wasnt on the horse but in that case why isnt Ollie on him today? To me Oliver has really dropped away when it comes to winning Melbourne's majors in the last decade. Since Media Puzzle in 2002 - i dont think he has snared a major race? Simenon - i dont quite get - perhaps i have missed something. All i know is that i have mentioned 12 horses and i've probably missed the winner!
Martyn50
Roar Rookie
I always pick a horse with a colour in it's name. Good as any. Won last year
Monica Barker
Guest
Your historical guide to the M.C.winner is just great and I loved reading all the statistics. However, I think it goes back too far and realistically should only embrace the last 20 or even 40 years. Racing has changed much over time and the basis for tipping a winner needs to be brought into this century as well. Based on the stats over a shorter period gives a very different picture all round. But then I am only a small time dabbling 'Satdyarvo' punter. Cheers dear............;-)
Jack
Guest
Think you were right the first time Alfred. As far as I remember only 6 grey's have won the Cup. Efficient was the 6th to do it.
Mr Mortgage
Guest
That sounds a great strategy.
sheek
Roar Guru
For me, for what it's worth, I'm tipping Dandino from Jet Away. They were the two outstanding runs in the Caulfield Cup & it is generally the most reliable guide. That's what I'm saying on Friday afternoon. It will be interesting if I'm saying the same thing on Tuesday morning.
sheek
Roar Guru
I'll concede Gunsynd. Had no staying pedigree & therefore no right to run out 3200m, not to mention carrying 60.5 kgs. But he was ridden by Roy 'Professor' Higgins, who had won two Melbourne Cups & knew every blade of grass, every rise & fall, every bend, every nuance of Flemington.
sheek
Roar Guru
Allanthus, No, not this year anyway. Perhaps Gai, like her dad, will win the Cup one day. Interesting that Tommy's first winner Toporoa in 1955, only came into his stables several months before the Cup & was trained in the patient NZ way. He carried a feather to hold off the mighty Rising Fast. His second winner Just A Dash in 1981 was a better horse, but not many took notice of him as they wondered where Tommy's no.1 choice Kingston Town was. Poor KT beat just one horse home. But Tommy can't be blamed for his two champions failing to win on the big day - Tulloch in 1960 & KT given a second chance in 1982. The jockeys butchered their horses with poorly judged rides on Cup day - Neville Sellwood with Tulloch & Malcolm Johnson with KT. They butchered their rides in entirely different fashion. Sellwood waited to long to make his run. Tulloch was near the end of a huge 32 horse field. Apparently he made up something like 15 lengths in the 400m straight to finish just three lengths from the winner - in 7th place! Johnson made the mistake of going to early as they came off the final bend. KT had no gas left for the last 50m & was passed in the shadow of the winning post.
sheek
Roar Guru
Thanks Salada - are you suggesting I'm as old as you?!;-)