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The Bart and James Cummings-trained Precedence would add plenty to next Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap). That’s of course if he makes the field.
In fact, after running quite well in the last three Melbourne Cups (eighth in 2010, 11th in 2011 and ninth in 2012) I think he can finish in the top eight this year. After all, he was so impressive when claiming the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m, Group 2, handicap) by more than a length on the weekend.
Yet even after winning his second Moonee Valley Cup, it seems unlikely that Precedence will make this year’s Melbourne Cup field. But he should be there.
Either Precedence goes to a career high and wins Saturday’s Mackinnon Stakes (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) or he doesn’t line-up in a fourth consecutive Cup.
After winning Saturday’s Moonee Valley Cup decisively, his fifth victory at Stakes level, the eight-year-old needed a 1.5kg penalty from Racing Victoria handicapper Greg Carpenter to sneak into the field. Carpenter penalised Precedence only 1kg and that means the Cummings galloper, now sitting in 29th position in the ballot, needs a miracle to make the Cup.
Because, if Precedence doesn’t win the Mackinnon (and he’s never won at weight-for-age in 13 prior attempts), he would only make the Melbourne Cup field if at least five horses ranked above him pulled out. And from what we know, that is not going to happen voluntarily.
And even if it did happen, it still may not be enough because if the winner of the Mackinnon and Lexus (2500m, Group 3, handicap) are ranked below Precedence in the order of entry, they will jump him into the Cup field.
The dead-wood in the ballot was culled on Monday when third declarations were taken by the Victoria Racing Club, leaving 47 horses in Cup contention.
A precedent was set last week when Carpenter penalised the Geelong Cup (2400m, Group 3, handicap) winner Ibicenco (who had the same Melbourne Cup handicap as Precedence) one kilo for his country cup success.
It was Ibicenco’s first Group victory (Precedence now has four) and it came in a horribly weak renewal of the Geelong Cup.
Verdant, the runner-up who carried two kilos less than Ibicenco at Geelong, was only beaten in the last stride of the race and exposed form indicates that he is lengths inferior to Precedence and the Moonee Valley Cup runner-up Shoreham.
In two meetings with Precedence in 2013, the imported Verdant – whose only Australian victory came in last year’s Lavazza (2800m, 0-95 benchmark, handicap) – has been handled with ease.
On both occasions Precedence carried at least five kilos more than Verdant and proved far too good in recording winning margins of seven lengths in May and a length in June over the Robert Smerdon-trained stayer.
Drawing a line through Verdant, Precedence would’ve beaten Ibicenco comfortably in the Geelong Cup. After all, Precedence was very good in winning a Moonee Valley Cup that had plenty on the Geelong staying feature in quality.
And an in-form Precedence is a very good horse. While he has not won at weight-for-age, he has finished high-up in several Group 1 middle-distance races. Precedence has run fourth and fifth in the Australian Cup (2000m, weight-for-age), seventh in the Underwood (1800m, weight-for-age) as well as in the BMW (2400m, weight-for-age).
A winner of the Galilee Series Final (then 2390m, three-year-olds, then open handicap) in 2009, Precedence beat the 2013 Galilee Final (now 2500m and listed) winner Shoreham on Saturday.
Quite remarkably, Shoreham wasn’t born when Precedence won his Galilee Final but trainer Saab Hasan had intentions of getting Shoreham, the third-placegetter in this year’s South Australian Derby (2500m, Group 1, three-year-olds), into the Melbourne Cup before he ran Precedence to a less than a two-length margin on Saturday.
Shoreham is not nominated to race on Saturday at Flemington even though he sits 36th in the current order of entry for the Melbourne Cup. As such, he has next to no chance of making the Cup field.
But like Precedence in 2009, we will be hearing more of this Galilee Final winner in years to come.
Precedence, who won the 2010 JRA Cup (2040m, Group 3, handicap) on the way to finishing eighth in the Melbourne Cup, had this year’s JRA Cup winner, Mourinho, finish fourth to him on Saturday.
The third-place getter Gotta Take Care was also a great and narrow third in the Bart Cummings (2500m, Listed, handicap) that was taken off live Melbourne Cup chance Sea Moon on protest earlier this month. And fifth-placed Tanby ran third in this year’s Australian Cup behind Super Cool, who in-turn was fifth in Saturday’s Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age).
If Ibicenco, an imported horse whose prior credentials are highlighted by two listed-grade victories, deserved his one kilo penalty for winning the Geelong Cup then Precedence, who I’d argue has been handicapped far too generously for the Melbourne Cup, deserved at least a two-kilo penalty for winning the Moonee Valley Cup.
The Cummings stalwart should be firmly entrenched in Melbourne Cup equations because he is on-track to have a career-best finish in the Cup next week.
History says that when a horse wins the Moonee Valley Cup as decisively as Precedence did on Saturday, they invariably run well ten days later. It happened in 2010 when Precedence was eighth in the Cup.
In happened in 2011 when defending Cup winner Americain, a soft winner of the Valley race, was a slashing fourth ten days later.
In 2006 Zipping, who had performed well in all the key Spring Carnival lead-ups, took the Moonee Valley Cup narrowly before running fourth in Delta Blues’ narrow Melbourne Cup success.
In 2000, one of the weakest Melbourne Cups ever, Brew and Yippyio ran the Cup quinella after running one-two (in reverse order) in a Moonee Valley Cup held under lights.
In 1990, Darren Beadman rode Kingston Rule to Melbourne Cup success in track record time. Ten days earlier, the Bart Cummings galloper had carried 53kgs (Precedence carried 54kgs on Saturday) to Moonee Valley Cup success.
Most famously in 1978, ‘the Professor’ Roy Higgins almost started a riot at Moonee Valley when Hyperno, the hot favourite for the Moonee Valley Cup, was given an easy time in the last 200m of the race.
The gelding (later to be named Australian horse of the year for 1980/1981) was lengths clear of his opposition halfway down the straight and Higgins decided to ride ‘hands and heels’ (rather than vigorously) in attempt to save Hyperno for the Melbourne Cup.
It was a fateful decision because Hyperno was nabbed on the line by Clear Day. The following year, Hyperno – who by this stage had been transferred into the care of Cummings – won the Melbourne Cup with eventual four-time Melbourne Cup winning jockey Harry White in the saddle. Higgins, ironically beaten in the last stride, rode the runner-up Salamander.
The Moonee Valley Cup has been a great Melbourne Cup lead-up from the moment the distance of the race was increased to 12 furlongs (about 2400m) in 1909. Precedence is one of only six horses to have won the Moonee Valley Cup twice.
He is trained by the greatest trainer of stayers Australia has ever seen. He is a seasoned performer who has taken on the best at handicap and weight-for-age level over four seasons.
He’s coming off one of the best wins in his career and as such, could finish as high as in the top five of the Melbourne Cup.
Yet that is not enough to win a place in the Melbourne Cup field. In fact, Ibicenco, the winner of the weakest Geelong Cup in at least five years, is closer to making the field because he received the same weight penalty as Precedence.
Would the Status Quo still apply if Precedence was not New Zealand bred? Of the locally-trained horses, is priority and preference given to horses that are imported from Europe?
Because I can’t believe Precedence is set to miss out on the Melbourne Cup. What a shame!
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