We’re not yet halfway through Round 1 and many commentators have already come to some staggering conclusions.
Collingwood and Carlton are gone, Lance Franklin was a complete waste of money, and the two expansion sides are set to dominate for the next decade.
That’s not to say that any of these predictions are certain to be proven incorrect, but the determination to be the first to sharpen the knives overrides any common sense in the AFL community.
It’s the same every year, yet no one seems to learn from their prior mistakes.
In the first game of 2011, Melbourne and Sydney played out a thrilling draw on the MCG.
Melbourne – laden with high draft picks – was sure to be a team on the march, while the Swans – unable to perform on the big stage – were old and getting older.
Their time at the top had certainly come to a close.
Eighteen months later, Sydney were the 2012 premiers, while Melbourne could only manage to finish above the two newest sides.
For all intents and purposes, they were by far the worst-performing team in the league.
Two teams at completely opposite ends of the spectrum were tied in a gripping duel, yet in the end it meant exactly nothing.
It is the dogged nature of the modern football media that every week be seen as a conclusion instead of a chapter, a destination in place of a journey.
So it was this weekend, with GWS causing one of the biggest boil overs of modern times with a runaway victory over the premiership-fancied Swans.
The Gold Coast also lasted longer in an entertaining tussle with top-four aspirants Richmond.
In the other games, Fremantle seemingly confirmed their status as one of the teams to watch with a crushing win over the Magpies, while Carlton, ahead for three quarters, were left in the dust by a hard-running Port Adelaide.
The victors deserve the praise, and certainly the quartet were impressive in securing the points.
Yet, particularly in the case of the Giants, it pays to be cautious before making bold claims about dynasties and future champions.
While the excitement of the moment seemed to elevate the result to the dawn-of-a-new-epoch status, so much will change in the course of the next six months.
While the success will be viewed as historically significant for Greater Western Sydney as a club, in the context of 2014 it is worth noting why upsets are viewed as such.
It is often said, usually by the same reactionary commentators and usually in an attempt to seem sage after the fact, that the AFL season is a marathon and not a sprint.
While this is true, if you continue to make daring predictions you’re bound to get something right eventually.
Let us then view the launch of another campaign, noted for its predilection for endurance, as merely the mirage that it is, rather than the reality it purports to be.
Kev
Guest
Not just that, the problem with analysing round 1 results is that it's just one game out of an entire season. Way too early to be drawing conclusions. Then again, all sports seem to have those who like to make snap judgments based on one game or performance. Cricket comes to mind. Someone makes a century and you immediately read about them "cementing" their spot in the side even though they've had 2 years of low scores, and conversely, two low scores in a match for a batsman and there's immediate talk about them being dropped from the side even if they've performed pretty well before that. It's as if the concept of "too early to tell" doesn't even make sense to some people.
Kev
Guest
Given the length of it, it will be interesting to see what happens if Franklin retires well short of the 9 years due to injury or form tailing off. My understanding is that the Swans will have a considerable amount of dead money in the cap and it would hurt more if they've backended the deal. I would have thought that even a 5 year contract in this day and age, is risky, let alone 9 years.
Olivia
Guest
@Gene, we finally agree on a topic. I fully admit I am one of those parochial, over emotional, uber-passionate supporters who treat everY loss as worthy of a state funeral and so on, but I have said all along that our recruitment of Franklin under the terms announced is by far our biggest loss this year and for years to come. For one, two and probably three years he will be competitive at the very least and will win us games through his individual brilliance but the same could have been said of Tippett and Reid for far less cost and duration. In years four and five we might get the occasional glimpses of the star-that-was but they will be fleeting at best. For the remaining four years he will struggle to even get on the park and will drag us down because of his cost. Regardless of how well and for how long he plays, his contract is excessive and destabilising and is not offset by the possible public awareness he brings to NSW of the AFL
macca
Guest
You are definitely right about the split round being stupid, half the AFL supporters couldn't give a stuff about last week and the other half half a frustrating fortnight to await there next taste. I know the AFL want to have more "showpiece" games but to me all it does is dillute the excitement.
Cat
Roar Guru
I would not welcome Franklin into my team, not with that contract. Unless he returns to his '08 form Franklin will be vastly overpaid and does anyone actually think he will, let alone do it for the next 9 years? Talent and skills are only one part of the equation when evaluating whether you would want someone in your team or not.
Cat
Roar Guru
Media and fans may be far too reactive to the games so far but that goes hand and hand with this ridiculous split round start, footy is here, we wanna experience and talk about it but its being parceled out oh so slowly so some things are getting overcooked as a result.
langou
Roar Guru
The problem when analysing the results from Round 1 is you don't know the opposition as well. For example Port could be a top 2 side this year which makes Carlton's result not so bad. Collingwood could be a bottom six side, making Freo's win less impressive ect..
vocans
Guest
Four games tell us possibly only one thing: the comp is pretty even.
Titus
Guest
Isn't there a nasal spray you can get for this?
Garrett Overend
Roar Rookie
Yep. Also, when bottom beats top in round 15 we have evidence to suggest that it's a one-off, while in round 1 the same result changes the perception - rightly or wrongly - for the year to come.
macca
Guest
The other issue with the Swans GWS is when they are trying to peak - Sydney started their preseason about a month after the bulk of the GWS squad and for GWS this game would be almost as big as it gets while the Swans would be planning for much bigger things much later.
Garrett Overend
Roar Rookie
Fair point, people can overreact to any result at any stage of the season. The example I used though was just one of many. Carlton beat Melbourne and Essendon beat Sydney in '06, Bulldogs beat Geelong in '07, Adelaide beat Hawthorn in '11 etc... My main gripe is the writing off of the Swans who are notoriously poor starters. The Franklin tripe has been incredible and any team would love to have him.
macca
Guest
Another point of furious agreement between us TomC
Garrett Overend
Roar Rookie
The author is one and the same. Unfortunately the name won't change on this site for some reason.
TomC
Roar Guru
Good article, Garrett, and good advice. Certainly in the case of the Giants there's a lot of ground to cover between winning one round one derby and decade-long dynasty. But I'm not sure about the wisdom of citing one first round game three years ago as evidence that it's not particularly representative of the season. Odd results are possible in any round of the season. I completely agree, though, that the football media, and indeed most football fans, are far too reactive to what has happened in the last seven days. We get too absorbed in narratives and don't do enough analysis of our own.
macca
Guest
Very true, but the flip side is all games are worth the same amount of points hence round 1 is no more important. The issue I have is that we aren't even half way through round 1 and already the Carlton RIchmond round 2 is make or break (becasue no team can come back fomr being 0-2) or the Pies are gone (I think they will miss the finals but I thought that well before round 1 results) or even Gold Coast are finals certainties - 1 poster on this site even proclaimed round 1 is the most important game of the season - it is all just over excitement - I think we need to get to at least round 5 before anything meaningful can be gleaned - after all a couple of seasn ago Essendon were 8-1 before missing the finals by a game.
macca
Guest
I just saw this exact article online in the "Marshall Town" Under the name Franc De Borges - I assume the author is one in the same but simply using a differnet nomme de plume.
Cat
Roar Guru
while I agree you can't base an entire seasons hopes or failures on a round one result, it is also foolhardy to completely dismiss the results because its only round 1. All games are worth the same amount of premiership points and missing finals by less than four points or by percentage can easily be blamed on a bad round 1 loss and a defeat in round 23.
macca
Guest
There was also an article in the Age yesterday pointing out how little they have reflected the rest of the season in recent years - like everything you can make the "facts" fit your story.
macca
Guest
This article was originally in the Age yesterday and I think it has some relevance http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/2156087/four-points-opening-round-afl-observations/?cs=12 All in all I think people read far too much into round 1 results.