Before Kurt Tippett made his Sydney debut in Round 13 last season, the Swans had lost only two of their previous 14 matches.
One was to eventual 2013 premiers Hawthorn at the MCG, while the other was to a Geelong side that was in the midst of winning 10 of their first 11 games.
Among the many wins was a clean sweep of the 2012 finals series, culminating in a memorable premiership.
Since Tippett’s first appearance in a Sydney jumper, in a loss to Port that can now be seen as a sign of things to come, the Swans have won 8 of 16.
Despite beating Carlton in a final in that run, only one of those wins was against a side that finished in the top eight in 2013.
Any way you try to cut it, it’s a fall from grace.
Factor in the addition of key forwards of the calibre of Kurt Tippett and Buddy Franklin, two men who were supposed to not just join Sydney at the top of the table but cement them there, and the fall has been staggering.
Several losses late last season were written off as the toll of a long year, worsened by a lengthy injury list affecting key players. The Swans had to call on their depth players, and the likes of Brandon Jack, Harry Cunningham and Jesse White all stepped up to have an impact at different times.
But was any loss of playing personnel that calamitous? They had 15 players miss no more than two matches, and their much-lauded midfield, where most matches are won and lost, barely missed a minute between them.
White immediately left the club after his best season, collateral damage from the Franklin signing. But he would also have been surplus to requirements, so there can be no complaints about his leaving.
Joining White, for varying reasons, were Shane Mumford, Jude Bolton, Andrejs Everitt, Marty Mattner, Mitch Morton, Tony Armstrong and Jed Lamb.
Mumford would probably be the only rock solid choice in the best 22 this year, though you’d imagine the versatile Everitt would have found a spot after playing consistently good football in 2013.
With those players obviously not considered, looking at what might be a best team for the Swans compared to last year, there are minimal changes.
Alex Johnson didn’t play at all last year and won’t this time either. Tippett didn’t play for the first half of the season when Sydney were winning, and Adam Goodes didn’t play in the second half when they weren’t.
Goodes, 34 years of age, can barely be considered a missing player at this stage after such a lengthy absence. Any matches he can play will be a bonus, and coach John Longmire surely isn’t relying on his return for any sustainable success.
Ryan O’Keefe, the Norm Smith medal-winning warrior, at 33 has either been overtaken by the game or is being phased out. 32-year-old Rhyce Shaw, based on some of his abominable play on Saturday night, can’t be far away from the same treatment.
Ted Richards, as game, brave and tough to beat a key backman as there is in the game, is also well on the wrong side of 30, as is Lewis Roberts-Thomson, the valuable role-player, albeit having become injury riddled and hardly inspiring confidence anyway.
Josh Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh and Dan Hannebery went missing in the deplorable final quarter against GWS. The loss was humiliating and could have been prevented if these legitimate gun players of the competition had stood up as senior players are supposed to.
Kieran Jack was similarly quiet against Collingwood, failing to impact the match in any meaningful way. Gary Rohan was a promising AFL player before he broke his leg, but has returned looking a barely average VFL one. The Swans are effectively a man down whenever he’s on the ground.
Sam Reid has barely evolved from game 1 to 58. A fluid mover, lovely hands, horrendous set shot, large periods of nothingness and good for no more than one goal a game. All as true at the beginning as now.
All put together, worrying signs abound, and that’s without touching on the negative publicity that Franklin has been attracting, central among it being whether or not his arrival has caused an irreparable rupture in the famous Bloods culture.
At first look, Buddy is playing a very similar role to last season at Hawthorn, where it was commonly accepted that Alastair Clarkson was changing the game-plan with a view to not relying on Franklin as heavily. Whether this was for the good of the side in the short-term or with a longer view is up in the air.
Either way, Sydney has spent a lot of money on a ridiculously long contract to start using Franklin the same way as a club that was phasing him out.
The phrase ‘traditionally slow starters’ has been thrown around by those springing to the Swans’ defence, but while true enough under Paul Roos, it’s factually incorrect under John Longmire. Prior to this year, in the three seasons with Longmire at the helm, Sydney hadn’t lost a game in any of the first three rounds.
Last year, it took half the season for people to realise that West Coast weren’t going to live up to their pre-season premiership favouritism, as they stumbled and bumbled to 13th on the ladder.
The year before, it was Carlton that couldn’t make the eight, despite also being anointed the one to beat for the flag. In 2011 it was Fremantle that fell off the map. The fall-out for all three clubs was the same – a change of coach at the end of the season.
Can the Swans turn their season around? Of course they can. We know what they’re capable of at their best, it’s just that we haven’t seen it for quite some time. John Longmire is not going anywhere.
But there does appear to be a deeper malaise afflicting the Swans, and a side that is losing holds themselves open to attack from all corners. Rarely do destabilising rumours and tabloid innuendo do the rounds about sides that are winning.
Boy do they need to do so against Adelaide this week.
Mark
Guest
Hear hear. Especially with the dig about flaunting the COLA. It was within the rules. You really can't make any argument against that. AFL have taken it away but were entitled to it so we used it. Suck it up.
Lavender
Guest
Looking back at this and at where the Swans sit now, shows how quick you were to jump to a biased conclusion, no matter how much you claim otherwise Cameron. Three losses and everyone's crying a river. But then again, ten wins and everyone's happy. Be patient and wait it out until the back end of a season Cam before you send out your prejudices.
Smart Man
Guest
Wow did a lot of you get this all wrong. Suddenly the Swans are back into 3rd favourite for the Flag after smashing Adelaide in Adelaide by 10 goals. Suddenly Buddy is understanding the game style and where players are going to put the ball. Suddenly the players understand where Buddy is going to kick the ball and his need for space, Suddenly the Swans midfield is pumping and youngsters flogged in your posts like Rohan, Cunningham and Parker look like being good players. 1 game off 4th place and with Goodsey and Kurt about to stroll out of the sheds, I say there is going to be a lot of red faces from the so called experts on this page. :)
James
Guest
It's no surprise that the Swans were hot favourites at the beginning of the year. Following on from a premiership in 2012, they played some incredible football in the mid part of 2013 until injuries finally took their toll towards the finals. It's completely justified to assume that a full pre-season to freshen injured players and the recruitment of Buddy would land the Swans in the top 4, again. On paper, the Swans have a very well-balanced line-up full of young talent and experience and they are led strongly by Longmire and co. Swans fans must be waiting for the switch to flick (like it did in 2012 and 2013), however this time they've been challenged to 0-2 start. A lot of it is mental with the Swans and it'll be interesting to see how they handle it with their backs against the wall. It could well bring out there best like it did in 2005 and 2006. Once they get moving, they'll once again be a difficult prospect for all sides, especially at their beloved SCG.
Teo
Guest
Wow an epic fail for anything less than a top 4!? From whose standards? That is a ridiculous assertion to be honest. AFL is one of the most competitive comps on the planet and no one team has rights to any position regardless of the list. It's open and many things can affect where teams finish on the ladder. The irony is of course that no one has backed the swans for year on year and they have always managed to surprise. People are salivating at their supposed demise almost like its a blood sport. They are a footy team, success or failure is not written. Even on you own admission they have been stalling since mid 2013 so how is it an 'epic fail' exactly? Because of Franklin? Because of Tippet? There is so much I'll will toward the club because they recruited players who wanted to play for them.....before 2012 no one gave a toss... If they had lost the first 2 games of the season and hadn't aggressively recruited the media would be asking why didn't the swans aggressively recruit!?
Strummer Jones
Guest
Interesting article. It seems to suggest you thought they'd be a good chance to win the GF this year, but now are falling apart? Or maybe, before round 1 you figured they would be top 4 but are now "falling apart". Is that correct? For the record, I just couldn't understand why the media were rating them a top 3 side pre season. I agree with you that Goodes may never play another game again and it may be the last year for several senior players. Added to that, the new forward line up is unproven and some of the young guys (Parker, Rohan, Cunningham) are a few years off 'elite level' (if they ever even make it to that level). In summary, I think the only thing falling apart is the media's pre-season assessment of how good the Swans would actually be this year.
Teo
Guest
Actually you can, at an intra club game there were about 2000-3000 people there. A massive turn out, it was on a weekday as well. Buddy has no doubt attracted interest here.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
It becomes noticeable if your team plays deep into the finals… They also plan for the season, not for the first round or two.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
We should knock them off yes. Recently we have played well against Adelaide away and hopefully it will be more of the same. I have genuinely no idea where the Crows will lift however it will be a highly fascinating game.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Cam really? You really think they don't start slowly. Read article on AFL.com.au and it said Swans had one of the lowest winning rates in the comp at 40% since 1999 but then once of the highest win rates overall. Keep in mind that also includes a draw to Melbourne as well as GWS in their first year and GWS in their 2nd year where they only won one game. Also, in 2006 we lost our first 2 games to become eventual GFs. Last year we looked really underdone against GSW and GCS and against almost any other teams would have had 2 losses. It is not perception that tells me this but actual football stats. We have started slow for a number of years, sometimes it takes 1 sometimes it takes 2 weeks but we should expect a much better Swans this week (which does not guarantee a win if Crows also step it up big time). Do I think we should finish top 4? Indeed. Premiership this year? They are hard to come by but we will want one within 3 years and why not start this year. Swans just need to get their act together.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
The settling in period is real. Especially for big name forwards and midfielders, not so much for defenders. In fact the bigger the name the bigger the disruption. The disruption occurs for both the player and the team and lasts for the best part of a season, can be a little shorter, but also much longer (often there's also fabric changes to the team with lost players to enable the trade). You can expect a few good performances here and there, but the trend over the whole season is usually sputtering. Teams and players can really struggle to hit top form for any length of time while players are fitting in and being fitted in. There's also a psychological impact on players as splatters will look to the big name at clutch movements more often, rather than take a greater responsibility themselves. As you pointed out in the article Cam, while the Swans and Tippett had a spurt after he made his debut it was a general downhill trend. I think this is the risk in going after a big name, especially if you think your window is only limited. There's every chance that next year (as long as they don't recruit in another big name) the Swans will be firing on all cylinders and they'll get great value out of Tippett and Franklin.
Titus
Guest
Cameron, the Hollywood idea exists as a media construct. As the most competitive sporting city in the country, all the codes fight for media attention by way of star players. In the case of Football and Australian Football they are really trying to introduce themselves to the city, though in the case of Australian Football they are trying to introduce them to the game as well as the league while Football is more about introducing them to the A-League. The reality is though, that at the spectator level, people are far more interested in quality, style, integrity ability to back up the hype and ability to fit into the landscape. Lockett was successful because he shunned the hype and backed it up at the same time, he was the perfect AFL star for this town. Del Piero has had similar success, showing his quality on the park, fitting into the social scene but avoiding the spotlight. But in the case of Sydney FC, the star player certainly got the attention but with a team that wasn't able to perform it soon fizzled somewhat. Anyway, the problem really arises if Buddy can't back up the AFL driven hype and if at the same time the team has a drop in form.
teo
Guest
Yes but also I think the structure and delivery to Franklin has been less than helpful and performance across the board has been below par. Not taking anything away from GWS or Collingwood, Penddles was bog and his play through the defensive 50 to kick a goal was inspirational. But in both games Sydney were 25-30 points up and ran out of steam. One feels that a par performance would have got them over the line in both games and that's the thing about Sydney is that they used to find ways to win, that seems to have deserted them.... I think a important observation is the way the clubs that are 0-2 are talking about themselves. Adelaide have spoken about soul searching and desire as have Melbourne. The talk coming out of Sydney remains fairly positive, an acknowledgement of the problem but there seems to be a belief they can overcome the issues. We will have a better idea after the Adelaide game as to how Sydney are dealing with these pressures....
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I have tipped the Swans to knock off Adelaide this week but if they don't then their flag hopes are just about shot. It's hard to judge Buddy on just two games but that contract he signed was madness. I agree with Matthew Lloyd that Franklin's best footy is very likely behind him. A nine year contract yet I reckon they'll be very lucky to get 100 games out of him before he is shot.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Great commentary Teo. In my experience, the best definition of a 'flog' is someone who uses that word to describe other people. In my opinion, the whole settling in to a new team thing isn't an excuse. We saw Tippett look good from minute one last year, same with Angus Monfries at Port. Eddie Betts kicked four on the weekend in his second game for Adelaide. Paul Chapman kicked four on his Essendon debut last week, among 22 quality touches. A Sydney just down on peak form would have found a way to win ugly in the first two rounds. The fact they couldn't suggests they are a long way away. By virtue of their consistent quality over recent years, Sydney have plenty of credits in the bank. No-one is saying they're going to crumble in a heap, but it's fair enough to ring the warning bells at the present time. Last week was a crucial game, and this week is even moreso.
Bobbie
Guest
Sorry Michael, but the last part of your comment is absolute bollocks. Season after season, the AFL press bang on and on about the 'bloods culture' and never have a bad word to say about Goodes for example, 'The Couch' being a clear illustration of this. Whilst i don't disagree that the Swans are a quality side, it's only round 2 and Goodes is a great player, to claim that the swans aren't recognized when they win is hilarious. And as the author pointed out, when you sign Franklin for 9 years, with the help of the COLA no less, don't be surprised when Sydney come under scrutiny.
Cat
Roar Guru
Can't measure from a marketing point of view after 2 games any more than you can measure his on the field impact. 9 years of impact to go.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
I just love that stat and given the resurrection of John Pitura I thought it was a good time to throw it in. NM finished third at the end of the home and away incidentially but yep Sydney might be off the pace.
Sean
Guest
Think you're overselling Sydney's improved starts under Longmire, Cam. 2012 is the only year that Sydney can be said to have really started well. 2011 opened with a draw against Melbourne, which was pretty dispiriting. But then tight wins Essendon and West Coast got things moving. Last year, though, we looked extremely sluggish against both GWS and Gold Coast in the first two weeks and got modest wins sort of by default. Then we played 1 blinder of a quarter to sink North in round 3. Lost to Geelong in round 4, and again only just overcame St Kilda in round 5 in Wellington. We got the wins against some mostly weak sides, but there was plenty of angst among Swans fans about the way we were playing.
teo
Guest
You must excuse my backhanded compliment, The Roar is one of the only places where one can engage in an open and intelligent conversation about footy without being called "a flog" as a passionate Sydney supporter and member I have been amazed and disappointed at the lack of time Buddy has been given to settle into his new surroundings. Yes he has been given a massive and long contract that confuses and frustrates many, including me. However with a few recent players all re-committing to the club I see this as an indication that the players at least are being professional about the recent big signings. Perhaps some players are disappointed but I would be surprised if those players let it impact their professionalism. Rohan certainly needs time but he had a few solid shots on goal but perhaps some time in the two's would be helpful. He has just signed a 2 year extension so certainly the club believes he is up to the task. I think a bigger concern is ROK who's drop of form has been monumental in the first 2 rounds, he was almost invisible against Collingwood and provided little support for Franklin who was left completely alone in the forward line at times and up against 2 even 3 opponents. How they managed to continually have a loose man in defence reflects poorly on Horse.... Time will tell with all these things and if by week 6 they are in the same or similar position in how they are playing games then certainly a more serious assessment of what is happening will be needed. Until we see Sydney with the Tippett, Franklin combination along with some solid Ruck help for Pyke then I don't think we are getting the entire story. Truthfully though Sydney don't look fit or fast enough, I have been to both games this season and every home game last year and have noticed a drop of in the ability to apply the pressure, It could be the fact that other teams have just gotten better and Sydney haven't. Freo did not hit that frenetic pace and pressure until after half way through last season and for my mind they are now the pinnacle for that style of footy. Sydney had that through 2012 and into a few games in 2013 including the game where they tore Adelaide apart. The Hawks are a precision instrument and are at the top with that style as well. There is a long way to go this season and a week is a long time in footy terms so I will reserve my judgment on Sydney and give them more time before I forecast their doom....There may be life in the old dog yet....