Australia Day, 2014 and the Melbourne Victory are in crisis. If losing 5-0 in Wellington the week before was not bad enough, they had just suffered the indignity of being walloped 5-0 again – this time by rivals Sydney FC on their own turf.
The revolution was falling apart. Manager Ange Postecoglou had left for the national team and star midfielder Mitch Nichols had gone to Japan, leaving a gaping hole in the 4-2-2-2 formation bequeathed to Kevin Muscat.
Leigh Broxham and Mark Milligan could still control the centre. Archie Thompson and Kosta Barbarouses could still roam the wings, with Connor Pain and Andrew Nabbout as reinforcements. But who would start up front alongside James Troisi?
Enter the wunderkind. Victory bounced back by reeling in one of Australian football’s rising stars, one we thought (and hoped) would be beyond the A-League’s reach for the next decade – Tom Rogic.
Problem solved? Hardly.
In fact, a study of the twelve games Victory has played since Rogic’s signing (not including the Australia Day debacle), show that the solution to their problems was one of their own. That is, Brazilian Gui Finkler, who in the second half of the season has turned from supersub to superstar.
Finkler’s performances off the bench had seen him demand a starting spot. James Troisi was one of the league’s top scorers and demanded a spot. Rogic had been signed to play. As the quickest of the three, Troisi vacated the middle for the wing, and the problems began.
Finkler and Rogic may be more skilful than Nichols, but they are slower. No game showed this more than the Melbourne Derby, when a hungry Heart tore the Victory to shreds. Finkler and Rogic couldn’t get near it, nor could they feed the ball out to their speedy wingers.
Successful Victory teams have always moved the ball with pace, but this version was in danger of grinding to a halt. Unluckily for Rogic, his last month has been cruelled by injury. But allowing Finkler and Troisi to combine once more may just have saved the Victory’s season.
In five games in which all three started, the Victory won three and lost two. The five games with a Finkler and Troisi combo have produced four wins, one draw and zero defeats.
In addition, a Finkler and Rogic combination started in a 2-2 draw at Newcastle, with Troisi off the bench. Another Finkler and Rogic combo led the Victory to a 1-1 draw in Perth.
So Tom Rogic started seven matches. He was substituted in six and played a total of 481 minutes – about 75 per cent. The Victory scored 12 goals in these matches, though only seven came when he was on the field.
Victory scored once every 69 minutes with Rogic on the field, without him they scored once every 30.
In those five undefeated games, they have scored 13 goals at roughly 35 minutes a pop. They put three past both Western Sydney and the Central Coast, and two past Sydney last week.
Indeed, all 13 goals have been scored with both Finkler and Troisi on the pitch, with six between them. The Victory has seemingly rediscovered the edge they lacked with Rogic on the field.
Obviously, it is never good to see a young man struck down by injury. The Australian football community hopes that Tom Rogic will be back up and running in no time and taking on the world’s best in Brazil. But if the Finkler and Troisi combo conquers Brisbane against the odds on Sunday, Kevin Muscat might be thanking his lucky stars.
Jimmy Thomson
Roar Rookie
Rogic is highly regarded at Celtic - especially by the fans - but that lack of a speed burst mentioned above and the tendency to hold the ball a little too long comes across as hesitancy and encourages defenders to get onto him. With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, it's a shame he or his minders pushed to get away from Celtic to get some game time as, with the Scottish league well and truly sewn up, Celtic are bringing a stack of young players into the first team. Playing in the first team in a non-pressured environment may be exactly what he needs right now as I think confidence is the key. But maybe he would have been injured anyway. Seriously, his Australian sojourn will probably be over on Sunday and he can get back to Glasgow for the last three games of the season. There will be chances next season as players move on - we can only hope he is fit and mentally strong enough to take them. As for the World Cup, I wouldn't leave him out of the squad just yet
j binnie
Guest
Fuss - There comes a time when measuring a player's performance that you cannot cite his performances in the HAL as being a standard of success, it can only be a standard of promise. We have up to 140 players playing in the HAL every week and of course some are going to look better than others. Bearing this in mind I tend to start looking at young "promising" players with an eye to what IMO they need to improve if they are to move up to the next level in standard. I said both Rogic and Brattan had an enormous amount of talent but lacked a "speed burst" that is almost necessary in todays game if improvement is to be achieved."Pressing" ,as it is known,is a tactic to encourage defenders to close down players as fast as possible and "playing on the break" successfuly calls for pace in ball movement and winning of space.Young Rogic could gain a yard if he was instructed in how to do it,this could mean he wouldn't be facing 2 or 3 defenders every time he gains possession, Likewise Brattan would not get caught by these players seeking the fast break thus cutting down the need to foul players in dangerous positions.Elimination of these flaws would make both of them better players and surely that should be the base aim of every coach,help them become better players. jb
Simon McInerney
Roar Guru
Great analysis Andrew, you provide some compelling stats. I wonder just how long Rogic played injured for. Perhaps the groin complaint went long undetected? Victory have built up a head of steam at just the right time. Its partly down to an improved defence and inspired Nathan Coe; partly down to Mark Milligan returning to fitness (Victory are a shadow of themselves without him); and as you point out, the form of Finkler and Troisi has been superb. For anyone who can't get enough of this stuff and wants further public holiday reading, you can check out my semi-final lowdown here: http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/04/25/league-semifinals-lowdown/
Bondy
Guest
Catnap Who is relatively young and good enough for International Football .
Griffo
Roar Guru
IIRC Čulina was in a more attacking midfield position with PSV than with the national team as a holding midfielder so we didn't see that side of the game as often. Go back a little further and Harry Kewell was a revelation as Rogić was. Rogić passing range and vision need to come back into his game (as well as speed, although being smarter on the ball will get him far when speed fades as he ages); I feel with lack of game time he puts pressure on himself as some young players do to impress after stints on the bench, often trying to do too much individually rather than bring his team into the game. I'm thinking here of Nathan Burns and Craig Goodwin at Jets as examples, and Troisi early on at MV before he scored regularly.
Catnap
Guest
I agree got a long way to be really good I don't think he is ready for international football at the moment!!!!!
AZ_RBB
Guest
2018 WC - Ryan, Langerak, Sainsbury, Geria, Chapman, Good, Amini, Rogic, Antonis, Ikonomidis, Juric, Taggart. I'm pretty excited! Heck most of them could play in 2022 as well.
Bondy
Guest
Yes you are bias, but hopefully they'll both feature for the National Team in the not to distant future.
Titus
Guest
He needs to develop a more expansive passing and distribution game. Learn to read the game and create it. Technically he is brilliant, though now that people have figured him out and his tendency to hold the ball and run whenever he gets it, his influence has lessened. Add to that his lack off contribution in defence. My memory from his time at CCM is that he would drift in and out of games enormously, moments of brilliance matched by long spells of ineffectiveness. I think if he can continue to grow he will be a good player, my money is on a player like Antonis to go further though, although I may be biased.
AZ_RBB
Guest
Not often I agree with Fuss but with him here. The only thing I feel he lacks is putting through that final pass after he dribbles past defenders and draws in the opposition.
graham
Guest
Quality post watch him dominate when he fully recovers
Bondy
Guest
I felt Culina was an outstanding passer of the ball but not overtly offensive .
Bondy
Guest
I remember the goal well ,notice Rogić looking for support " none there " and dribbles then shoots. He's a good kid that'll come good, he may also have been injured for quite some time who knows. I should also mention a great strike by Hernández too. I notice Fuss Muscat kept his cool in the last 10 minutes of the clash between Jeonbuk (Kor) a good sign for the future " composure ".
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
Fair point about Bresciano - was hoping my "last 15 years" would avoid Bresc; seems it doesn't! Agree that Culina was technically extremely good; but I rate Rogic to be on a higher level technically.
bobbym
Guest
Cant see Rogic going to Brazil. maybe Asian cup if he gets game time at Celtic.
Ben of Phnom Penh
Roar Guru
At work here so will need to be brief (made it to the Dawn Service though). 15 years puts you in the realm of Marco Bresciano, Jason Culina et al.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
It's a public holiday in Australia ... so, let the debate begin! :-)
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
Stevo Were you watching much CCM during the 2nd half of 2011/12 and the 1st half of 2012/13? Tommy Rogic was simply superb. Yes, he dominated games & yes he set up goals. He only played 24 games for CCM & he scored 5 - a goal every 5 games if pretty reasonable for a No.10. This match (Nov-2012) was, for me, "The Tommy Rogic Show" ... enjoy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFF9iqOys4o
Ben of Phnom Penh
Roar Guru
That is a rather big call
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
Tom Rogic is, for me, the technically most perfect footballer who has debuted for the National Team in the past 15 years. Apart from his heading ability (don't think I've ever seen Tom head the ball, which is not surprising - headers aren't that common in Futsal where Tommy honed his technique) he has everything I want from kids learning to play football: soft 1st touch, beautifully balanced with the ball at his feet running at the opposition, stinging shot, ability to see the forward pass & execute, strong & remains on his feet when legally challenged. Sure, he's not a greyhound. But, he doesn't have to be in his position. Playmakers don't need to burst around the pitch, like Mitch Nicholls. Two of the best playmakers I've seen for the National Team - Crino & Bresciano - were not blessed with pace; but they both had exquisite skills. Okon & Zelic would never win a sprinting contest. However Tommy is not suited to MVFC's 4-2-2-2 structure. Put Tommy in the WSW or CCM team & he'd dominate as he did last season. I still recall the 1st time I sat up and noticed Tommy Rogic. It was AAMI Park in Feb-2012. MVFC were ending a disastrous season that started under Durakovic. Whilst MVFC caused an upset with 2 stunning goals from Carlos & Harry, Tommy Rogic's run & finish at 9' had the whole stadium speechless. He picked up the ball around the half way line & just glided past players as if they weren't there. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zfpSLb-_8Q