Tuning into a game of AFL football has never left so many people scratching their heads and wondering what just happened quite as much as it has in season 2014.
The unpredictability upon which sport is based upon is back, and there has never been a more tough time for us tipsters to pick a perfect round.
Yes, there are upsets every week and that is the great nature of sport, but predicting AFL results has become a nightmare.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott was the only Herald Sun tipster, along with the dreaded ‘Kiss of Death’, to tip Greater Western Sydney Giants in the first week of the season. Lo and behold, they recorded a stunning upset over the more fancied Sydney Swans.
The first two seasons of both GWS and the Gold Coast Suns rewarded many teams with easy wins, with punters affectionately calling a game against either of these two sides an unofficial bye. But with continual improvement and development of their young stars, as well as mature-age recruits, they are no longer easybeats.
The Melbourne Demons can also be included in this group, though we saw only a couple of seasons ago that they were capable of shocking Essendon at the MCG, as they did Carlton this year.
Regardless of who is playing, there is more than likely going to be a clear favourite. Hawthorn are currently showing that trend unless they play Geelong.
Watching a game now offers the footy fan the feeling of anxiousness and anticipation on top of enjoyment. There have been games this season where some pundits and experts have been completely wrong, and others who have been proven right.
I certainly did not envision Carlton losing to Melbourne, North Melbourne going over west and beating Fremantle (or Sydney for that matter) and St Kilda toppling Essendon.
Equalisation has been a complex and important issue over the past five years, and on-field results show that with improved performance comes off-field success.
Port Adelaide are the perfect example, going from 14th to fifth in one season. Over 52,000 members, a brand new stadium in Adelaide Oval, a new club president in the prominent David Koch and more than 47,000 fans at the weekend’s game against Geelong have all come after the installation of Ken Hinkley and effective list management.
The NFL, which the AFL looks up to and obsesses over like a Greek goddess, has the unpredictability of sport model firmly in check. Match outcome is completely unpredictable and any team can beat another.
This season that mentality is making its way into the AFL, but this may bebecause the game is becoming too defensive. We are seeing the lowest amount of points scored in the AFL to open a season since 1968, which is an alarming statistic.
The scoring may be lower, but what would you rather see – a game where one side pulverises an opponent by 120 points, or a close contest where the final margin is respectable?
Paul Roos’ influence on the Demons players might be just that where that juggling act is taking place. On one hand he is coaching his team to play a certain game style, and on the other hand he has to limit the losses of yesteryear to keep their percentage above 50.
Equalisation off the field will always be a priority for the AFL and rightly so, but equalisation on the field is becoming less of an issue. There are always going to be teams down the bottom of the ladder, but there has never been a worse time to be a betting man on the AFL.
Tim Holt
Roar Guru
No Gene, by weakness, I am referring to their are about 4 quality teams, and then another 10 who are mediocre, but fighting for the 8, and then 4 booger teams. Ill give you an example, I think GCS are a great chance to make the 8, but when we ( Hawks ) played them on their patch , supported by the heat in their favour, we smashed them by 99 points. Underlining the huge difference between a top team and a 5-10 team
Gregor
Guest
You only have to look at the Eagles -Carlton game. Nine shots on goal from decent players and eight misses. One kick with a different result and Carlton are shot,Eagles are fourth and no-one is bagging Naitanui.Oh wait,that is predictable.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Some things simply are predictable. This statement being correct, is something that is predictable wrong :) Honestly though, it has been fairly unpredictable so far but do agree that it is early days. I agree that it is heading into unpredictability however.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Agreed. Ablett actually clearly is based upon anything to do with footy. People watch Suns games simply to see if he will do something magical. I would say he is actually quite close, if not, the best player of all time especiallyl for his size which his marking ability seems to make people forget he is only 182cm and only 85*kg. The guy is an absolute beast (this coming from a Swans supporter).
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Haha Mr. Over-rated. Ablett (I don'y know who else you would be talking about) isn't overrated, whole comp agrees he is best player in the League, opposition coaches agree, fans agree and Champion data agrees and over 50% of AFL supercoach teams agree.
vocans
Guest
Unpredictability comes with evenness in the competition. Add in fatigue due to the modern pressure game, which also happens somewhat unpredictably, and is fostered by evolving the game with a higher interchange cap and then cutting back expecting the same intensity, and you have the recipe.
Cat
Roar Guru
I think the weakness he means is there is no clear cut team running away from the rest chasing 4th spot. If Freo or Essendon or Kagas looked more like a sure bet it would be a safer bet to say the Swans had no chance to make it into top 4, but with pretty much all the competition for that spot also stumbling, its like it wide open for Sydney to more easily recover from its early season stumbles and claim that spot.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
Won't all teams benefit from the "weakness" in the comp (whatever that is)? And I'm not sure this year's Sydney has the same ingredients that made their side over the past couple of years so formidable. It's a very different chemistry and they'll be relying, to a certain extent, on a different dynamic to power them. Sure they'll need that collective grunt, but I think star power has become a much larger factor. It's likely they'll still splutter for at least the rest of this season as they settle in Buddy and to a lesser extent Tippet, but also the both of them together. But I do think it will be interesting to see how the form lines for all teams hold up over the rest of the season. If Sydney and Freo get back to their best and hold it for extended periods and North, Collingwood and Port keep their best form, then it will be a very very interesting battle for the top four. Especially given the number of times many of these teams meet each other (including Geelong and Hawthorn) in the rounds to come.
wisey_9
Roar Guru
Rather than trust your judgement Michael, I'd look at what his peers have to say. Ablett Jnr has won 5 of the last 7 AFLPA MVP Awards - a remarkable achievement.
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Gene - spot on, it is much harder keeping your lofty standards up on a weekly basis in a team where you are guaranteed the best tagger every week without fail. The Magpies boys have the benefit of maybe getting a tagger maybe not, Ablett has not had this luxury since 2010 yet still does much more than any other midfielder in the comp.
Winston
Guest
Demons for the premiership!
Tim
Guest
I can see them being a challenger when it counts, as they always are. And, the weakness in the league will help them in the quest for the 4 too
Cat
Roar Guru
None of those other players have en entire franchise on their shoulders, None of those players has ever copped a team's best tagger every single week, sometimes their teammate might get it, sometimes they may get it, Ablett gets it every single week and he STILL puts up numbers that far exceed any player you mentioned. Take a look at the official AFL player ratings Ablett has been the #1 ranked player since its inception, not only that is the only player thats score above roughly 680 and he has been around 730+. There is Ablett then daylight then everyone else. 2 Brownlows 5 MVP awards 7 times in a row AA 5 time best and fairest winner 2 time Premiership winner 3 time Coaches Association player of the year No one else even comes close.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
I don't know whether the Swans could be considered a challenger at this point. They've still got to play all the other contenders (incl Hawks and Power twice), as well as GWS and travel to Perth. This might make it pretty hard, given the games they've lost, to make the top 4.
TomC
Roar Guru
I see it the other way: he hasn't had an A grade midfield to help him out. He's one of the few players that we know has been extremely successful in a dominant team and a weak team.
Michael huston
Guest
Well I disagree. He was already a first class player when he left Geelong and was placed in a team that's his equivalent of a reserves side in Gold Coast. Naturally he's going to find the ball more than Swan who has to compete with Pendlebury, Beams, Ball etc. and Judd who had to compete with Kerr and Cousins. He hasn't had an A-grade midfield to contend with so he finds it a lot easier. He just doesn't do enough to differ him from that elite pack IMO.
TomC
Roar Guru
On second thoughts, I reckon Carey was probably as clear or clearer than Ablett as the best player at the tme. Still, that's pretty damn good company.
TomC
Roar Guru
Sadly, I think Tim Holt might be on the money. It's pretty common for seasons to look really unpredictable early, and then later we look back and figure out the patterns. It's also pretty common for early season form to be deceptive. Still, I enjoyed the article. Hopefully this is a year where we get unpredictable results all the way through.
TomC
Roar Guru
Nah, Ablett is in a class above those guys, Michael. I actually can't recall a time when it's been so easy to pick who the best player in the league was. His dad was certainly the most exciting player at the time, but with Dunstall and Lockett running around it wasn't even clear that he was the best forward, let alone the best player. Wayne Carey is probably the closest. Greg Williams in the early to mid 90s is also pretty close. I don't know if he's the greatest ever, but at the very least I reckon he's the greatest since Voss and Buckley.
Michael huston
Guest
He's over-rated. Anyone who watches football cannot deny he is one of the best players in the game, but those that say he's the greatest ever? I mean, he's a master of the game, but so is Chris Judd, so is Dane Swan, so is Scott Pendlebury, so is Sam Mitchell and about a dozen others at least. It's crazy how much of a different league people place Ablett in.