NSW halfbacks making their State of Origin debuts at Suncorp Stadium – going right back to when it was the Lang Park cauldron – have an awful record. I knew it was unlikely to be good, but I was hoping it wouldn’t be this bad.
Sometimes you shouldn’t go looking for statistics, in case the search turns up something that is frightening. But I love a good stat, so I can’t help myself.
And having checked it out, it’s now my duty to relay it to you – even though it doesn’t look good for Blues fans.
However, Queensland fans will be delighted.
Using stats guru David Middleton‘s Official Rugby League Annual as a guide, I came up with five Blues starting halfbacks who made their Origin debuts at Brisbane’s spiritual home of rugby league.
And just for the record, no NSW halfback made his Origin debut at ANZ Stadium in Brisbane, which was used for Origin games in 2001 and ’02 while Suncorp Stadium, as it was already called by then, was being redeveloped.
There are some massive names on the list, too. So here’s the roll-call, with the results.
Peter Sterling
In 1981, when there was just one Origin game played. Ross Henrick was the Queensland halfback. The Maroons won, 22-15.
Steve Mortimer
In Game 1 of the first three-game series, in 1982. Mark Murray was the Queensland halfback. The Blues won, 20-16.
Des Hasler
In Game 3 of the 1985 series. Murray was the Queensland halfback. The Maroons won, 20-6. NSW had won the first two games to clinch the series.
Brett Finch
In Game 2 of the 2004 series. Scott Prince was the Queensland halfback. The Maroons won 22-18.
Jarrod Mullen
In Game 1 of the 2007 series. Johnathan Thurston was the Queensland halfback. The Maroons won 25-18.
That’s one win and four losses.
In the strictest sense, Geoff Toovey doesn’t fall into this category, because he actually made his Origin debut for NSW off the bench in Game 3 of the 1990 series at Lang Park, after the Blues had won each of the first two games of the series. Queensland won the third game, 14-10.
But when Toovey started at halfback in Game 3 of the 1995 series, in what was just his second Origin game, and the Maroons won 24-16 to clinch a clean sweep. Adrian Lam was the Queensland halfback.
Toovey’s case just serves as further proof of how hard it is when you’re starting an Origin game for the first time for NSW in arguably the most important position, halfback, and away from home, which is the task confronting Trent Hodkinson at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night.
There have been 50 Origin games played in Brisbane – 48 at Suncorp Stadium and two at ANZ Stadium. Queensland have won 32, NSW 17 and there has been one draw.
That gives NSW a winning rate of 34 per cent in Brisbane. Even when you leave Toovey out of the equation, the NSW winning rate in games where the Blues had a starting halfback making his Origin debut up there drops to just 20 per cent.
A week ago in The Roar I wrote that Hodkinson would be my pick as Blues halfback. The statistic I’ve referred to here doesn’t make me rethink that opinion. I’m still comfortable now with what I thought then.
My thinking was that it was time to move on from Mitchell Pearce as Blues halfback. He’d had enough chances to make a major contribution to the NSW cause, but wasn’t able to do it.
Included in Pearce’s 12 Origin games were five at Suncorp Stadium. NSW lost all five. I know you can’t lump all of the responsibility for a loss on to one player, but if you were going to make changes to the NSW team then halfback was a reasonable position in which to include one of them.
Hodkinson was playing well and was clearly next in line. Hopefully, for the sake of the Blues and their long-suffering fans, he can do something to help improve that debut halfback stat up there.
Dr Yes
Guest
You jump to a conclusion: it's equally difficult for debut halves and non-debut halves to win at Suncorp. And then work backwards to say that 1 from 5 should probably be 2 from 6 (a doubling at the click of the fingers). No offence, but that's BBQing the books. To give a broader base, consider all Qld and NSW starting debuts at 6 and 7, across all venues. Allow prior debuts on the bench/in other positions (because moving to half is hard). Ignore games where there was an Origin half debutant on both sides (because that negates the argument and is not what we're facing here). Define 'Experienced' to mean player had already started in a GF or in Aus Tests (meaning they'd proven themselves to be at top level) or were involved in 2 SOO series from bench/non-half position (meaning they'd adapted to the pace and level). Let Melb games be 'Away' for both teams. The stats: NSW Half Debuts Inexperienced Away = 1/7, Inexperienced Home = 0/2, Experienced Away = 1/5, Experienced Home = 3/6 QLD Half Debuts Inexperienced Away = 0/2, Inexperienced Home = 3/4, Experienced Away = 2/2 Experienced Home = 2/2 That backs up Greg's point pretty well. - Debuting is tough; debuting for NSW is tougher (less stability + combination); debuting at half is tougher; being inexperienced at debut is very tough indeed - Playing away is tough; NSW playing at SunCorp makes things worse - Debuting against the current QLD team is the toughest job of all. Across history, NSW has just one *inexperienced* half to debut against Qld non-debutants and win (at Home or Away). Bird in '07 game 3 (dead rubber at Suncorp), partnered by Kimmorley against Lockyer and Thurston. Qld played a large proportion of the match with 1 replacement after Dallas Johnson was knocked out in first minute, Inglis did his knee at 20th min, Tate did knee at 33rd minute. Forwards such as Price played 80 min. NSW had 4 other games where experienced halves won on debut. I'm strongly supporting the Blues, but I'm concerned about the halves. They'll be affected by nerves, the speed and forwards targetting them. Yes, you can settle them and speed them up by scripting some attacking moves. As Qld has shown, that can be very valuable near opposition 20. But, you can't play scripted the enitre game. Territorial pressure, exhaustion and brutal defence negate structured play. The noise prevents communication. They won't be behind the Dogs' dominant pack. One-off runs and quality play-the-ball become more important. Individual opportunities, 1 per-centers, off-the-cuff play, errors and penalties all make the difference.
Dr Yes
Guest
Christian D'Aloia
Roar Guru
The sad thing is though, the halves will be blamed for the struggling pack.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Chris You are 100% correct that Stats are misleading with only a small sample, but Greg's stat does support the overriding stat that it is very difficult to win at Suncorp for a visiting team and for a new half it will be deafening to hear calls anto give them. The Blues have only been able to win at Suncorp four times from their last 16 appearances and have lost their last five straight. Now that is a stat! When I rate teams I always include a home ground advantage and Suncorp for the Maroons is the equal highest of any contest I work on. A normal club game is about 2.5 to 3.5 points and Suncorp > a converted try.
Greg prichard
Guest
Better than Reynolds I hope.
Squidward
Roar Rookie
Queensland wanted the 3rd game of 2000 cancelled so that they could play for Brisbane. That game ended up being famous hand grenade fletcher flogging game
Gappy
Guest
Adam Reynolds is a head of brooks. Brooks hasn't played in a final series hasn't played at any origin level (City v country). Before everyone starts talking up Brooks let's see how he goes in a final series up against a fired up manly, the hardcore defence of the roosters, the forward pack of the dogs running at him every set and a Melbourne side full of origin stars, plus a pissed of JT that the cowboys are robbed again
The Barry
Roar Guru
I don't think either would the way the game is now. Origin was still in its infancy then and there were a lot of reasons why NSW weren't 'on' for the game.
Greg Prichard
Guest
Queensland would never consider any Origin game as a dead rubber. Hopefully, NSW wouldn't either.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I'm not that daunted by the stats. The losing margins were 7, 7 and 4 and the other was a dead rubber. So it's not like we're out of the game with a rookie half. Plus if I remember correctly in 85 the third Origin was played after the test in NZ where four Qlders were dropped for Blues players. Qld were pretty fired up and NSW were off their game having just won their first series. And Steve Mortimer had just retired from rep footy.
Greg Prichard
Guest
Why do you say 49? There have already been 50 Origins in Brisbane. Just because two weren't at Suncorp Stadium doesn't mean they don't count. It was just as hard for NSW there - they lost both of them.
Greg Prichard
Guest
You know what? I reckon, even at this stage, it's very unlikely Adam Reynolds will ever play Origin. If Hodkinson succeeds, he'll be there for a while. If he's just OK, they'll try to use him as a bridge to Brooks. By then, Adam Reynolds, would be in the pack behind with the rest of the halfbacks.
Greg Prichard
Guest
I hope it doesn't have to be considered because that would mean NSW was 2-0 down in the series, but if Queensland have won the series after two games I wouldn't be surprised if Brooks played some part in game three. Not necessarily as a starter, but if the game couldn't affect the series result NSW could put him on the bench and give him at least 20 minutes in the second half, merely to blood him so that if he is used next year it isn't completely new to him.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Statistics mean nothing to the individual. The fact is that if the Blues win this match then it will become 2 from 6 or 33%, while the overall will rise to 18 from 49 or 37%, which would mean that statistically the record at Suncorp would be similar for first time half-backs as for NSW overall. That's how much one game can change the stats. As such, the other way you could read the stats is that NSW are due to have another win with a rookie half-back. Stats don't mean much with such a small data-set.
Gappy
Guest
Brooks is way to young to start with, Adam Reynolds is in front of him.
Gappy
Guest
Remember that was his first full year of NRL, Canterbury's first GF since 2004. He has gone from strength to strength. His defence is better than Maloney and Carney. Reynolds will have more experienced players around him. What will help NSW win will be the combo's of the wing and centre pairing.
Sir Jamie Lyon
Guest
Two more sleeps pooooohhhh yeaaahhhh!
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
I think Pope Benedict is eligible for the Maroons though, right? I'm pretty sure the Vatican is in Queensland.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
It's Monday morning, mate. Best I can do under the conditions.
planko
Guest
Were you expecting a bite Will ? You have to do better than this...