At the start of the AFL season, any followers of football were of the belief that the Gold Coast would not play finals this year. Ten rounds in, no one could legitimately suggest that will be the case.
The Suns are now a game clear in third spot on the ladder.
Not in the past 15 years has a team sat in the top three at this point of the season and not played finals. The question now is not will the Suns play finals, but can they finish in the top four?
The answer for me, based on recent form, is yes.
The naysayers will point to the quality of opposition they have beaten. Of their seven wins, six have been against teams occupying the bottom six spots on the ladder.
Believers like myself would point to the opposition to whom they have lost. Their only losses so far have come against last years grand finalists. That’s hardly something to be ashamed of.
I would also bring up the manner in which they have been winning. They seem to flick a switch at different stages that makes them virtually unstoppable.
Against both North Melbourne and St Kilda they kicked seven goals in the first quarter. Against Brisbane they kicked seven in both the third and fourth quarters.
In their match against the Bulldogs on Sunday they took that to another level. Late in the second quarter the game was in the balance, with the Suns leading by only a point. From then until early in the last quarter they outscored the Dogs 12 goals to 1, building their lead to 70 points and putting the game beyond doubt.
In the third quarter they had 15 scoring shots to 3. Say what you will about ordinary opposition, but it takes a genuinely good team to score like that.
The most significant aspect of the win at the weekend was that they largely did it without the influence of Gary Ablett.
While the reigning Brownlow winner finished the match with 24 touches, his first half saw him tagged out of the game by Liam Picken. Into the void walked future leaders like Dion Prestia, Jaeger O’Meara and Harley Bennell.
It was a team performance, and what a team they are. They have all the hallmarks of a champion side: solid, dependable defenders, plenty of run through the halfback line and midfield, in and under ball winners, and tall forward targets that can mark the ball and kick goals.
Then there is the almost immeasurable factor: class.
Of course, the true test is still to come. Between now and Round 16 they play Adelaide, West Coast and Hawthorn interstate, and Sydney, Geelong and Collingwood at home. With their confidence as high as it surely must be, one would pencil them in for at least three wins in that stretch.
From there they have return bouts against Bulldogs, Brisbane and St Kilda. They could well go into the home straight with 13 wins and an eye on the top four.
They may not seriously challenge for a premiership this year but they will make the eight. Should they manage to win a final they will definitely be in contention in 2015.
From there, like the fiery ball of gas from which they derive their moniker, the sky’s the limit.
Stewart
Guest
Start again Gene. :)
Josh Pinn
Roar Pro
The draw will never be fair. At least this year the AFL have tried to equalise it depending on last years ladder. So, Gold Coast aren't the only team to have an easy run. Adelaide played Saints, Giants, Dogs and Dees in succession and didn't make the most of it. You can only beat who's in front of you.
Nathan
Guest
Whilst I see where you are coming from but 7,500 fans.... Be a little bit fair, We have over 13,000 members this year, 80,000 facebook followers . (Yes I realize not all of these would be suns supporters) Not huge numbers I know but much nicer than the figure you like to paint. As for comprimised draw, When the draw was announced it didnt seem comprimised, don't play GWS twice, dont play Melbourne twice. Ok it's turned out we do play quite a few easy teams twice. Didnt realise the Bulldogs werent moving forward, Had no real idea what the saints would dish up. Whilst the draw appears to have turned out comprimised, I dont feel it was always going to be.
hardsy
Roar Pro
Teams at 7-2 should always make the finals, but as many have pointed out they have a tough six weeks. With a young list confidence will be the issue, if they can manage to keep this they will make their first ever finals series. Winning is cruicial to the club this season and will keep their talented list together. Other clubs will start offering more money the GC can provide so players must choose success or money. The AFL want this team to be a success, until they win a flag they will continue to recieve soft draws and whatever else the league can provide. Yes, they are playing good football but at what cost to the other clubs. In a few years when they are a constant top four team spare a thought for those Saints, Dogs, Dees, and Tigers fans who haven't seen success for decades whilst this team gets continual hand outs. At least their 7,500 fans will be happy, for a while at least. Good read by the way.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
14 wins and 8 losses is pretty damn good. ps are you the real Stevie J?
Josh Pinn
Roar Pro
The opening sentence should read 'many followers' not 'any followers'.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
God article Josh. However, the general statement that not many were picking them for finals is incorrect. It was more a subject of debate, closer to 50/50. I thought it was possible but not sure who to remove from the top 8. I had them at 12th. What is an issue is that they have played close to no big teams yet. They may be smashed by some teams to come as they don't have the necessary level if experience against tough teams - it has all been easy. The three times they have played a team in the top 8 - Hawks, Roos and Dockers - two losses, a 48 point and 99 point loss (Freo and Hawks respectively) then a 43 point win against the inconsistent Roos. There other 6 wins have come against the bottom 6 sides on the ladder. Things do not actually bode well for the Suns in coming games - it will be the true test of where they are at.
Josh Pinn
Roar Pro
Thanks for reading everyone. I don't necessarily think they will make the top four but I think they're definitely capable. The way they kick goals so quickly is their best asset. Time will tell if they can do it against the top teams. I also think their loss to Hawthorn was a turning point. They realise they can't perform like that if they want to be a serious contender.
Stavros
Guest
"I am not sure that they are good enough to win on the long interstate road trips yet". I tend to agree with this. I've tipped Adelaide to win this week. Being a GC member I hope I am wrong, but maybe its a hangover of seeing them carved up so much over the last 3 years.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
I've written here that the Suns may be 3rd but they haven't beaten a real good team yet. http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/05/28/suns-improving-but-yet-to-prove-themselves/
Cat
Roar Guru
and after they go 2-4 in the next 6 week, they'll back it up with another 6-1 run in last 7.
Stewart
Guest
They only thing the Suns have really proven so far this year is that may only be the 7th worst team in the comp. Write your article again in 6 weeks time.
Cat
Roar Guru
Rd 11 @Crows - Win (8-2) Rd 12 Swans - Loss (8-3) Rd 13 @ WCE - Win (9-3) Rd 14 Cats - Loss (9-4) Rd 15 @Hawks - Loss (9-5) Rd 16 Collingwood - Loss (9-6) Rd 17 Dogs - Win (10-6) Rd 18 @Lions - Win (11-6) Rd 19 Saints - Win (12-6) Rd 20 @Carlton - Win (13-6) Rd 21 Power - Loss (13-7) Rd 22 @Essendon - Win (14-7) Rd 23 WCE - Win (15-7) Welcome the Suns to their first finals ... comfortably.
Steve J
Roar Guru
I ran the rest of the season through the AFL ladder predictor and came out with the Suns finishing 7th-8th with 14 wins and 8 losses at best. The games I think they will definitely lose are Sydney, Hawthorn, Geelong, Port and Collingwood, they could lose an extra 2 in West Coast and Adelaide (both away), which would take them to a 13-9 win / loss and have them teetering on 9th position. I am not sure that they are good enough to win on the long interstate road trips yet, especially not the ones that will have them play in front of 40,000+ rabid fans of West Coast and Adelaide. But I pencilled them in for a 1-1 from those games. If they do make finals then they will continue the stat that shows at least 1 team from the bottom 5 from the previous year makes finals the following year (Port last year). This has only been disproved once since the final 8 came into play in 1994.
Avatar
Roar Guru
I'm very impressed with the Suns' rise up the ladder this year. It may have taken them some time but they are finally showing their potential, and it's not just Ablett who's running the show. Jaeger O'Meara is another Brownlow Medallist in the making and Tom Lynch has been impressive. I watched their match against the Bulldogs on television on Sunday and although they were challenged early, they eventually broke away in the premiership quarter. On this form it will be very hard for any team, including recent powerhouses in Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney, to beat them in the coming weeks. I see the match against Adelaide at the Oval as being winnable, but Sydney will be a tough test even though the Suns are at home.
Axle an the guru
Guest
I picked them to play finals this year from the start. People said no way on this forum, but like i said at the start of the season. They have abundant talent just starting to come into there prime,a strong home ground advantage topped of with a good draw. I still expect them to finish 7 or 8. I dont think they will go to far into the finals but they will be hard to beat. Look out in two years time.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Good to see you made it to the Roar Josho! But I'm going to have to disagree, the teams gifted to the Suns have given them plenty of hope of a finals berth. Their next six games will decide if they are a contender or if they are just making up the numbers.
Jason K
Guest
I don't think one can get around the fortuitous line up of opposition as easily as that. You wrote "Of their seven wins, six have been against teams occupying the bottom six spots on the ladder." This has to be significant and one cannot easily brush that off. In fact, your own argument actually hinges on this. The Suns lose to good teams and win against struggling teams: this is not the recipe for a top four finish, rather its a perfect fit for the definition of the word 'average'. I would describe the Suns as a average team with a lucky break in the scheduling for the early part of the season. Once all the Ports, Geelongs, Magpies, Swans, et al., come around, look for the Suns to fall back to earth and slip into darkness. That all being said, to be average at this stage of the team's history is in itself an accomplishment. I think this team is laying the groundwork this year for top 4 finishes in the very near future... just not this year.
Don Freo
Guest
Good article Josh. No wonder they published you. People talk about the tests to come for Gold Coast's youth but I think, with players of such class, each outing is one more experience that will improve them exponentially. As the season progresses, they will become quite formidable. Inexperience might find out a young side like Port Adelaide but these guys are 3 and 4 years down the track. Inexperience might only be a football commentator's myth.