When it comes to State of Origin time every year, everybody seems to be an expert.
Every person you talk to about Origin will give you their own analysis and predictions, perhaps out of knowledge, or perhaps out of pure hope.
But where does history’s opinion come into play? What are the numbers telling us is going to happen in tonight’s Queensland versus New South Wales blockbuster?
Queensland have won the last eight series, which everybody is aware of. They have won 18 series since the three-game Origin concept started in 1982, compared to New South Wales winning 12, with 2 series resulting in a draw.
Since 1980, when State of Origin began as a one off game, Queensland have won 53 matches, compared to NSW’s 44. Only 2 matches have resulted in a draw.
Many people are writing off NSW’s chances this year more so than the previous two years due to the fact that for the first time since 2011, there will be two games played at Suncorp Stadium. This may be due to the fact that the last time NSW won at Suncorp Stadium was in Game 3, 2009, which happened to be a dead rubber.
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In fact, NSW haven’t won a Game 1 match at Suncorp stadium in 11 years, when Andrew Johns was running the show for the Blues in 2003.
Queensland are coming into the game with a lot more Origin experience, both on the field and off.
Queensland coach Mal Meninga has not lost a series. He has been in charge since 2006, and over 8 series wins, his team has won 17 matches and lost 7. Compared to rookie coach Laurie Daley, who has only coached for 1 year, losing the series 1-2.
If we compare the captains, Cameron Smith has played 30 Origins, been a part of eight series wins and has picked up three man-of-the-series awards.
Opposing leader Paul Gallen has played 16 Origins, and unfortunately for himself and NSW, has not yet been part of a series win.
Out of all the 34 players playing tomorrow night, only three of them have ever won three or more man-of-the-match awards. They all come from Queensland. Billy Slater and Cameron Smith have won three each, whilst Johnathan Thurston has won four man-of-the-match awards.
In saying that, suspended NSW back rower Greg Bird has won three..
It wouldn’t be much surprise if current superstar Greg Inglis crosses the line tomorrow night, as he is the all-time State of Origin record holder for tries scored, with 15 to his name in just 21 starts.
A major talking point for the game is how the tickets have not been sold out yet due to various reasons, mainly the ridiculous pricing.
Referees have also been a major talking point this season, and NSW fans do feel they have been hard done by in recent years. Shayne Hayne and Ben Cummins have been selected as the two referees for game one.
Shayne Hayne has been in charge of 10 Origins, with 8 of them going to Queensland. Ben Cummins has only been part of 1 Origin game, in which NSW won.
Whilst there are endless statistics for State of Origin, these are the ones that are most relevant to tomorrow night’s game.
These stats seem to be pointing in the direction of a Queensland win.
However, the rules of objectivity don’t always apply during State of Origin, so I for one hope these statistics re-write themselves this year and NSW can finally get a series win.
Bring it on, Queensland.
Matthew Buxton
Roar Pro
I'm definitely no Josh Allerton i can assure that
Knightblues
Roar Guru
lol go into the blues change room and tell them to man up!
Knightblues
Roar Guru
whats history telling u now? BWAHAHA GO TH BLUUUEESSS!!!
Josh Allerton
Roar Guru
Matt Buxton or Danny Weidler!?
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Nice call on Boyd -hope you had a motza on it...
Julian King
Roar Guru
"If Queensland play to their best, they will win". That is predicated on all things being perfect. They have, in my opinion, more skillful players and a better coaching structure. The question is, how often do Queensland play to their best? After game one last year, they conceded they didn't. Certainly across eight series they have been better 'relative' to NSW. However, on any given day, NSW are a chance. Acknowledging luck as a factor does not mean relying on it. It is merely incorporating all elements of a contest. Absolutely necessary in any preparation. Every sportsman knows that in any game there are circumstances beyond their control. As Warney's favourite coach John Buchanan said, "control the controllables". By successfully doing so, you put yourself in the best position to capitalise on the good luck and minimise the bad. Queensland just do it better. Anyway, enough of the coaching and leadership philosophy. Time for my pre-Origin nap. To Matthew and Rick, thanks for stimulating a worthy discussion. I think Darius Boyd at $11 is paying overs for first try scorer. Get on it. Queenslander.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
You just made my case then. Irrespective of luck if QLD play at their best they will win. If NSW play at their best and QLD play at their best and QLD get 10 shi....ty calls against them then yes, NSW might win. However, Shane Warne summed it up nicely in a press conference following the final test in England during the 2005 Ashes campaign. He replied to many comments about us losing the 2nd test due to numerous bad decisions by saying, ' you don't lose a 5 test series due to bad luck'. The great man in Warne MAN'd up and as a result they thrashed England 18 months later 5 nil. You could come up with many cases around the world where a team has won due to good fortune or bad luck to the opposition. But, like I said that won't win you a 3 game series most likely. My point being I keep hearing to much about 'luck' from NSW commentators and supporters. Something has to be amiss and perhaps it runs far deeper than you and I think, but a good start is getting rid of this mental weakness about thinking luck may get you over the line.
mushi
Guest
Shhh Julian luck/probability is viewed as taboo in discussing sports on here
Julian King
Roar Guru
Actually Rick, I'm a Queensland supporter! Over the long term the better side ultimately wins, but there are always things beyond your control. The bounce of the ball, a dodgy call. You have to put yourself in a position to win the game firstly, and as they say, take your opportunity when and however it arises. With relatively small margins separating the two teams in game one, a bit of luck could easily see a win to NSW. However, if Queensland play to their best, they will win.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
'Number crunching makes for good front bar conversation, but ultimately it comes down to skill, commitment and a bit of luck. May the best team win.' That last part about luck tells me you are a NSW man. It is also the reason NSW keeps losing consistently to a state that has inferior assets in most departments when it comes to winning in professional sport. I can guarantee you one thing. Meninga would not even mention the word 'luck' when addressing his boys tonight. Luck does come into it at some stages, but you don't lose 8 straight to a smaller state resources wise due to luck my friend. I suggest you and every other NSW starts thinking differently otherwise you will go another 8 years of pure pain. Man up you NSW men, it's getting to the point of embarrassing watching you as a Victorian consistently get punished by the QLDer's...
Julian King
Roar Guru
You can't always rely on stats. 8 out of 10 people know that. The margin for game one since 2006 has only ever been 1-12, so there won't be much in it. The last 2 occasions Suncorp has held the opening game, Queensland won by 7 (2007) and 4 (2011). Greg Inglis has scored 4 tries in his last 4 matches at Suncorp - an ominous sign for the Blues. Number crunching makes for good front bar conversation, but ultimately it comes down to skill, commitment and a bit of luck. May the best team win.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
History tells us NSW is going to lose again!
Sideline Comm.
Guest
It's also really good to see writing like this at this time of year. So many articles right now are about personalities and 'who said what' and 'he is more of a grub than him.' It's refreshing to see a well written piece with no name-calling and simple enthusiasm for the game.
Matthew Buxton
Roar Pro
Yeah my head is telling me QLD, and so are all those stats haha! But its origin, stranger things have happened, we never know.
Matthew Buxton
Roar Pro
Cheers, yeah can't wait so keen!!
Avatar
Roar Guru
Should be a huge match tonight. Queensland's experience and the home crowd will get them home. Try as they might, but NSW might not even get close. But just wait and see.
BrumbyJack
Guest
Well written Matthew. Some very good insights on the back of statistical analysis. It's going to be a cracker of a game!